NFL Conference Championship Line Movement | How Playoff Odds Changed During The Week
After an epic Divisional Round, just four teams remain in the 2022 NFL Playoffs: the Cincinnati Bengals, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, and San Francisco 49ers.
The Chiefs will host the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday afternoon (3 p.m. ET) before the Rams and 49ers do battle in Los Angeles in the NFC Championship game (6:30 p.m. ET).
With a spot in Super Bowl 56 on the line, the stakes are as high as they get. And with only three meaningful NFL games remaining this season (sorry, Pro Bowl), bettors have been eager to get invested in Sunday’s doubleheader.
Here’s the latest line movement and sharp action that we’ve been tracking.
Note: Conference Championship NFL gameday odds and lines are current as of 4 p.m. ET on Thursday, January 27, and provided by Caesars Sportsbook.
Bengals vs Chiefs Line Movement
|Bengals vs Chiefs||Opening Lines (1/23)||Latest Lines (1/27)|
|Moneyline||Bengals (+250), Chiefs (-320)||Bengals (+285), Chiefs (-360)|
|Spread||Bengals +7 (-120), Chiefs -7 (+100)||Bengals +7 (-105), Chiefs -7 (-115)|
|Over/Under||53.5 (-110)||54.5 (-110)|
|Implied Score||Chiefs 30.25, Bills 23.25||Chiefs 30.75, Bengals 23.75|
The spread for the AFC Championship Game between the Bengals and Chiefs has generally been hanging around a touchdown for most of the week.
Bettors have been quick to pounce whenever a hook (at either KC -6.5 or CIN +7.5) has become available as they try to get an edge in what should be a high-scoring contest.
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The total initially opened at 53.5 points and has been bet up to 54.5, with many are expecting another shootout similar to the Week 17 contest between these two teams that ended in a 34-31 victory for the Bengals.
With Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow leading these two offenses, it’s hard to blame them for expecting lots of points.
- See our Bengals vs Chiefs prediction.
BEST BET: Chiefs -7 (-115) at Caesars
I know the Chiefs don’t have the best record against the spread and the Bengals have been great as underdogs with Burrow at the helm, but I’m still leaning towards Kansas City in this spot.
Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnoulo will have benefitted from seeing the Bengals offense just a few weeks ago and should have a better plan to contain Ja’Marr Chase this time around.
Kansas City also boasts a massive experience advantage, having played in the AFC Championship Game each of the last three years, in addition to home field and a revenge spot.
The Bengals will need to score touchdowns in the red zone to keep up with Mahomes — something they haven’t done that well in the postseason — so I’m rolling with the Chiefs here.
Chiefs Cover -7 Spread vs Bengals
CIN @ KC | 01/30, 4:00 PM ET
Bet $20, Payout $37
49ers vs Rams Line Movement
|49ers vs Rams||Opening Lines (1/23)||Latest Lines (1/27)|
|Moneyline||49ers (+145), Rams (-170)||49ers (+160), Rams (-190)|
|Spread||49ers +3.5 (-120), Rams -3.5 (+100)||49ers +3.5 (-115), Rams -3.5 (-105)|
|Over/Under||46.5 (-110)||46 (-110)|
|Implied Score||Rams 25, 49ers 21.5||Rams 24.75, 49ers 21.25|
This line also doesn’t look a whole lot different from the opener, however, we’ve occasionally seen the spread drop down to a field goal, only to be bet back up to 3.5 points.
After the Rams’ impressive road victory over the Buccaneers last weekend, it seems as though bettors are more than willing to lay the points with Los Angeles, especially if they can get that key number of 3.
As of Wednesday, Rams -3.5 is attracting 53% of the tickets and 44% of the money at BetMGM.
Meanwhile, the total has dropped a half-point since Sunday, which could be explained by the lingering injuries to 49ers playmaker Deebo Samuel and left tackle Trent Williams.
While both are expected to suit up, this could still hamper the offensive potential of this game. Both Niners games this postseason have hit the Under, with combined totals of 40 and 23 points.
- Find our 49ers vs Rams pick.
BEST BET: 49ers +3.5 (-115) at Caesars
The 49ers have won their last six meetings with the NFC West rival Rams, including a Week 18 showdown that secured San Francisco’s spot in the postseason.
Although the Rams have played better football in the postseason, they’ve had trouble slowing down Kyle Shanahan‘s zone running scheme in the past and could be in for a long day if they can’t contain Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel.
While I do think the Rams will win this game at home, the 49ers have proven that they are going to be a tough out. San Francisco catching more than a field goal just seems like too many points.
49ers Cover +3.5 Spread @ Rams
SF @ LA | 01/30, 7:30 PM ET
Bet $20, Payout $37