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NFL Divisional Round Line Movement | How Playoff Odds Changed During The Week

Posted: Jan 20, 2022Last updated: Jan 23, 2022

Eight teams remain in the 2022 NFL Playoffs as we get set for the Divisional Round, which kicks off on Saturday afternoon.

After first-round byes, the Green Bay Packers and Tennessee Titans will see their first action of the postseason, joined by the six teams that advanced from Super Wild Card Weekend.

With spots in the AFC and NFC Championship Games on the line, the stakes have been raised for this four-game slate and NFL bettors everywhere are investing in their favorite sides and totals.

Here’s the latest line movement and sharp action that we’ve been tracking.

All NFL Divisional Round odds and lines are current as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Friday, January 21, and provided by TwinSpires Sportsbook (unless otherwise specified).

Bengals vs Titans Line Movement

Bengals vs TitansOpening Lines (1/17)Latest Lines (1/21)
MoneylineBengals (+145), Titans (-180)Bengals (+155), Titans (-190)
SpreadBengals +3.5 (-114), Titans -3.5 (-106)Bengals +3.5 (-110), Titans -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under47 Over (-114)/Under (-107)47.5 Over (-108)/Under (-113)
Implied ScoreTitans 25.25, Bengals 21.75Titans 25.5, Bengals 22

This AFC Divisional Round showcase between the Bengals and Titans hasn’t seen much movement on the spread over the course of the week.


Sportsbook Play of the Day

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As of Thursday night, 54% of the bets were on Cincinnati to cover +3.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook, but 58% of the money was on Tennessee as a short home favorite.

The total initially opened at 47 points and has been bet up to 47.5 as the Titans are expected to have their full complement of offensive weapons back healthy, including running back Derrick Henry.

In concordance with the line movement, the Over is currently attracting 67% of the bets and 71% of the money.

49ers vs Packers Line Movement

49ers vs PackersOpening Lines (1/17)Latest Lines (1/21)
Moneyline49ers (+190), Packers (-240)49ers (+200), Packers (-250)
Spread49ers +5.5 (-110), Packers -5.5 (-110)49ers +5.5 (-109), Packers -5.5 (-112)
Over/Under47.5 (-110)47 Over (-113)/Under (-108)
Implied ScorePackers 26.5, 49ers 21Packers 26.25, 49ers 20.75

While this line also doesn’t look a whole lot different from the opener, we have occasionally seen Packers money come in and push this line to +6, which then triggers 49ers buyback at the key number.

At DraftKings, 72% of bets and 75% of the money is backing Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay to win and cover the spread at home.

While the Over is garnering 61% of the bets at DraftKings, it seems like the sharp money is on the Under as it represents 47% of the handle on the total.

BEST BET: Over 47 Total Points (-113) at TwinSpires

These two teams combined for 58 points in their Week 3 meeting during the regular season, which Green Bay won on a last-second field goal 30-28.

In fact, four of the last five meetings between these two teams (all since 2018) have seen 50-plus points scored and all five games saw at least one team reach the 30-point threshold.

San Francisco has had a lot of success running the ball against Green Bay in these recent meetings, and I’m expecting Kyle Shanahan‘s scheme to have success again.

As we know, Rodgers is certainly capable of lighting up the scoreboard, so expect this game to turn into a sneaky shootout.

Rams vs Buccaneers Line Movement

Rams vs BuccaneersOpening Lines (1/17)Latest Lines (1/21)
MoneylineRams (+128), Buccaneers (-157)Rams (+120), Buccaneers (-148)
SpreadRams +3 (-117), Buccaneers -3 (-105)Rams +2.5 (-103), Buccaneers -2.5 (-118)
Over/Under48.5 (-110)48 Over (-113)/Under (-108)
Implied ScoreBuccaneers 25.75, Rams 22.75Buccaneers 25.25, Rams 22.75

The Rams’ lopsided win over the Cardinals on Monday Night Football has influenced the betting public as Los Angeles is now only a 2.5-point road underdog against the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers.

As of Thursday night, the Rams are getting 54% of the bets and 58% of the money at DraftKings, despite having to travel across the country on a short week.

DraftKings has also tracked some sharp action on the Under, despite 75% of the bets coming in on the Over.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams

After picking up his first career playoff win last week, can Matthew Stafford lead the Rams to a road win over Tom Brady and the Buccaneers? (Image: USA TODAY Sports)


BEST BET: Buccaneers -2.5 (-118) at TwinSpires

I don’t think I can bet against Tom Brady at home in the playoffs as a favorite of less than three points.

That hook is just too tempting, and this line is an overreaction to the Rams’ beatdown of a Cardinals team that had dropped off significantly during the final weeks of the regular season.

The Rams certainly have a path to victory, especially if Von Miller and Aaron Donald wreak havoc on the Buccaneers offensive line, but I trust Brady, Rob Gronkowski and Co. to get the job done at home.

Bills vs Chiefs Line Movement

Bills vs ChiefsOpening Lines (1/17)Latest Lines (1/21)
MoneylineBills (+112), Chiefs (-136)Bills (+108), Chiefs (-130)
SpreadBills +2.5 (-112), Chiefs -2.5 (-109)Bills +2 (-108), Chiefs -2 (-113)
Over/Under54.5 Over (-114)/Under (-107)54 (-110)
Implied ScoreChiefs 28.5, Bills 26Chiefs 28, Bills 26

The shortest spread of the week saw the Chiefs open as 2.5-point favorites against the Bills in a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game, but that margin has been narrowed even further during the week.

Buffalo is currently getting 50% of the bets and 54% of the money, despite being the road underdog in Kansas City.

The total for this contest has dipped half a point from the open at 54.5, which is somewhat surprising given how potent these two offenses are.

The two most recent meetings between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes finished with totals of 58 points (Week 5) and 62 points (2020 AFC Championship).

Author

John Arlia

Before joining The Game Day, John served as the National Writer for the United Soccer League, where he primarily covered the USL Championship out of the league’s headquarters in Tampa, FL. A devout soccer fan, John attended the last two men’s World Cups in Brazil and Russia and can’t wait for the 2026 edition to come to North America. Having also written for Sporting News Canada since getting his master’s from the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism at ASU, John has acquired a diverse sporting background, but considers football, golf, and soccer his three strong suits.

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