The Kansas City Chiefs (14-5) are vying for their third straight Super Bowl appearance when they host the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday.
This game is a rematch of Kansas City’s Week 17 meeting with the Bengals when Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs lost 34-31. in a wildly entertaining game at Paul Brown Stadium. It was Kansas City’s only loss since Week 7.
Mahomes and the Chiefs are rolling, averaging more than 31 points per game over their past 12, and 42 points per game in the playoffs.
Let’s dive in to find out which player props for Mahomes are worth betting in the rematch against Cincinnati this week.
All NFL gameday odds are current as of 3 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 26.
Patrick Mahomes AFC Championship Prop Bets
Over 290.5 Passing Yards (-115) at BetMGM
Wager: 1 Unit
Mahomes had only 259 passing yards in the teams’ first meeting, but betting on him to not hit his prop passing total in a playoff game is a fool’s errand. The all-everything QB is averaging more than 310 yards per game in his career and 391 yards over two postseason games this season.
The Bengals surrendered the seventh-most passing yards in the NFL this year (4,806), but have been better this postseason, allowed 247.5 yards per game through the air.
Still, the AFC Championship Game will be Mahomes’ third-straight rematch in the playoffs, and he easily surpassed his previous game total against Pittsburgh and Buffalo. Expect him to do it again.
Best Bengals vs Chiefs Player Prop Bets
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Over 29.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Mahomes only had 25 rushing yards when these two teams met in Week 17, and the Bengals only surrendered 252 rushing yards to quarterbacks this season — the 10th fewest in the NFL.
But Mahomes has suddenly been part of Kansas City’s running attack in the playoffs, where he’s averaging 49 yards per game and is coming off a seven-carry, 69-yard performance in the Chiefs’ OT win over Buffalo.
- Read more of our NFL Championship Round Player Prop Bets
Expect Mahomes to surpass 30 yards on the ground Sunday to cash this NFL bet of the day.
Over 2.5 Touchdowns (+125) at Fox Bet
Wager: 1 Unit
The Bengals pass defense is very bend-but-don’t-break. Cincinnati allowed the sixth-most passing yards, but only surrendered the 17th-most passing TDs (26) during the regular season.
In the playoffs, Cincinnati’s pass defense has allowed just two passing TDs to Ryan Tannehill and Derek Carr in wins over Tennessee and Las Vegas.
Check out more of our Bengals vs Chiefs Predictions
But Mahomes is no ordinary quarterback. He has thrown at least two touchdowns in seven straight games and is averaging four TDs per game through two playoff contests.
You can bet he’ll be targeting the matchup against Cincinnati cornerback Eli Apple, who Pro Football Focus gives just a 60.2 ranking, and rates as the 75th-best out of 122 corners in the NFL.
Over 37.5 Yards Longest Pass Play (-115) at BetMGM
Wager: 0.5 Units
Mahomes has topped a 38-yard play in eight straight games, including a 53-yard play to Mecole Hardman the last time they played Cincinnati.
The Bengals defense has limited big passing plays in its two playoff wins, but Mahomes and the Chiefs have carved up defenses with long airstrikes this postseason and should be able to again Sunday.