NFL Week 17 Upset Predictions | Biggest Upset Picks for Week 17

Week 17 of the NFL season is upon us. With just two weeks left, teams across the league are scrambling for wins to either avoid playoff elimination, secure byes, or just end the season with a grain of pride.

With a solid sample size of games to judge teams on, team-adjusted stats like DVOA have a ton of value. We also have to be aware of how injuries have affected teams to this point.

As always, context is key.

With that in mind, let’s dive into some NFL Week 17 upset predictions and best bets.

Please note that all NFL gameday odds and lines are current as of 9:30 a.m. ET on Friday, December 31.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns Upset Pick

Ben Roethlisberger‘s last game ever may not end with a bang, nor whimper. The Steelers and Browns are evenly matched but Pittsburgh gets the advantage of playing at home.

Big Ben is historically better when playing at Heinz Field. Even this year he has a higher completion percentage, TD/INT ratio, Y/A, and AY/A at home. Five of Ben’s wins have come at home while only two have come away.

This may seem like an extremely bland analysis and to be fair, it is, but this has been a trend across his career. The Steelers are also relatively healthy as they get budding TE Pat Freiermuth back from concussion protocols.


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The Browns have lost 7 of their past 11 games along with losing their most recent against Pittsburgh at home. They are a bad team with an unhealthy QB whose performance is not that far off from Roethlisberger’s. It is hard to fathom why they are favored.

Yes, the Steelers are down both starting linebackers Joe Schobert and Devin Bush, but neither has played particularly well this season. The only major loss is starting center Kendrick Green, who is likely out due to a calf injury.

Offensively, Cleveland is the only team with some sort of trump card thanks to its rushing attack, though Pittsburgh could sell out and force Mayfield to beat them. There should be doubts about this plan’s effectiveness, especially if T.J. Watt is healthy.

Upset Prediction: Steelers 24, Browns 21

Browns vs Steelers Upset Best Bets

Upset Bet: Steelers Moneyline (+150) at Caesars

Wager: 2 Units

The Steelers find a way to win this game. While corny to follow narratives, the matchup is close enough to favor the home team here unless COVID strikes in a massive way over the weekend.

Pittsburgh boasts enough talent on offense between Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, Najee Harris, and the aforementioned Freiermuth to find points while the defense, though depleted, gets the benefit of facing an injured QB.

moneyline

+150

Steelers To Defeat Browns

CLE @ PIT | 01/03, 8:15 PM ET

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Upset Pick: Over 41 Total Points (-110) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

Both defenses are in the bottom half of the league of DVOA. While these teams did combine for just 25 total in the most recent matchup, Pittsburgh ranks 4th in total pace and 8th in neutral situations. Assuming this is a close game, even Cleveland’s sluggish 29th-placed pace will not prevent the over from hitting.

over-under

-110

Browns @ Steelers: Over 41 Points

CLE @ PIT | 01/03, 8:15 PM ET

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Bet $20, Payout $38

Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Football Team

Washington Football Team wide receiver Terry McLaurin should see WFT’s pass game improve against a vulnerable Eagles defense in Week 17. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)


Washington Football Team vs Philadelphia Eagles Upset Pick

The Eagles recently beat Washington by double digits and have quite the stretch going with 5 wins over their past 6 games but that can all change in D.C. this weekend. The Football Team is no longer starting 3rd-string QB Garrett Gilbert and instead gets competent former backup Taylor Heinicke.

Heinicke is no world-beater, however, he is mobile, unlike Gilbert, and has some semblance of a rapport with the starting offense. Coming off a 56-14 demolition at the hands of Dallas, Washington is likely coming out guns-a-blazing despite their playoff hopes all but crushed.

The WFT offense is down starting RB Antonio Gibson but that may be a blessing in disguise as he has been hurt all season and it has only gotten worse as the season progressed. UDFA Jaret Patterson should be capable of carrying the load as he has flashed at times this year. Losing starting CB William Jackson III hurts though it would hurt more if Philadelphia possessed more than one competent receiver (Smith).

On the flip side, Philadelphia is down starting RB Miles Sanders (hand), potentially down backup Jordan Howard (shoulder), and stuck with backups Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell. RB is not a major deciding factor is who wins games, especially when your QB is as mobile as Jalen Hurts but it is a factor.

Upset Prediction: WFT 23, Eagles 20

Eagles vs WFT Upset Picks

Upset Pick: WFT Moneyline (+145) at Caesars

Wager: 2 Units

The Eagles are not as trampled by COVID as Washington. However, with Washington at home and Heinicke another week removed from his illness, there is a good chance that they can pull this off.

The defense is built to stop a run-first team and Jalen Hurts has not been rushing as much since his ankle injury (45 yards on 10 rushes through the past 2 games). In their last matchup, it was a tie game at halftime! These teams are evenly matched for the most part.

If Washington loads up to force Hurts to pass and prevents him from escaping, they have a good shot to win.

moneyline

+145

Eagles To Defeat WFT

PHI @ WAS | 01/02, 1:00 PM ET

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Upset Pick: Under 44.5 Total Points (-110) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

Philadelphia’s 15th in pace while Washington is 23rd. When Washington leads, they are the slowest team in the NFL. These stats are context-dependent and should be taken with a grain of salt of course but valuable when something as polarizing as this is shown.

over-under

-110

Eagles @ WFT: Under 44.5 Points

PHI @ WAS | 01/02, 1:00 PM ET

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Bet $20, Payout $38

Thanks for reading our NFL Week 17 Upset Predictions! For more NFL betting tips, check out our NFL Week 17 Best Bets and NFL Week 17 Prop Bets.

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NFL Betting News

  • Early money slightly leaning towards the over in the 49ers-Rams matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting good two-way action on the over/under for the NFC Championship Game matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 46 points has attracted 55% of the bets and 60% of the money thus far. Much moreso than the AFC Championship Game, the betting splits on the point spread and total in this game are much more evenly split, so the sportsbook does not have too much liability on either at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Los Angeles's -170 moneyline odds have attracted 60% of the bets and 70% of the money.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early bettors give slight lean to the Rams over the 49ers

    Based on the betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook, the favored Los Angeles Rams are getting slightly more betting attention in their matchup with the San Francisco 49ers.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Los Angeles's -3.5 point spread has received 65% of the bets and 61% of the handle thus far. Bettors are clearly torn in this matchup considering the Rams have arguably been playing better football through the first two playoff games, while the 49ers have won six consecutive games against the Rams, including a thrilling Week 18 overtime victory in Los Angeles.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early money more than 4/1 on the over in the Bengals-Chiefs matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's over/under in the matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 54.5 points has attracted 75% of the bets and 85% of the money thus far. At this point, the sportsbook has big liability to the Chiefs point spread and the over in this matchup, as their most ideal scenario would be a Bengals cover in a low-scoring game at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Kansas City's -335 moneyline odds have attracted 58% of the bets and 61% of the money.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • Early money 3/1 on the Chiefs over the Bengals

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs, as the majority of the action is backing the favored Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Kansas City's -7 point spread has received 61% of the bets and 76% of the handle thus far. Cincinnati is shaping up to be the biggest need of any side or any total this weekend, as the public seems to be enamored with the Chiefs after their thrilling Divisional Round win over Buffalo.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • 49ers-Rams over/under reaches lowest number of the week

    After another line movement, the over/under for the NFC Championship matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams has reached its lowest total of the week.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the 49ers-Rams over/under on Sunday night was posted at 47.5 points. It was quickly bet down to 46.5 in less than 24 hours. However, it has once again moved toward the under, and now currently sits at 46 points. Given that there has not yet been buyback on the over, it is extremely unlikely we see the total get back to anywhere close to the 47.5 points it opened at.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page