NFL Week 16 Upset Predictions & Picks | Biggest Upsets for Week 16

Week 16 of the NFL season is upon us. Now that we are well into December, we have a much better idea of which teams are contenders and which are pretenders.

With a solid sample size of games to judge teams on, team-adjusted stats like DVOA have a ton of value. We also have to be aware of how injuries have affected teams to this point.

As always, context is key.

With that in mind, let’s dive into some NFL Week 16 upset predictions and best bets.

Please note that all NFL gameday odds and lines are current as of 6:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, December 23.

NFL Week 16 Upset Predictions

Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Rams

If there is anyone who knows the ins and outs of Matthew Stafford, it’s Mike Zimmer and the Minnesota Vikings. Obviously, Stafford’s weapons and protection in Los Angeles are significantly better than his recent years in Detroit, but his tendencies are the same.

These types of things are difficult to quantify, but are often in play for how weird divisional matchups get.

To the Rams’ credit, they are playing a high level of football in December. Their three-game win streak comes with a plus-47 point differential, though 30 of them were against the Jaguars.

This rejuvenation after a three-game losing streak in November comes at the hands of newfound workhorse, Sony Michel, who is a significantly better fit for Sean McVay‘s wide zone scheme than Darrell Henderson.

Additionally, the Rams are benefitting from having Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr. in the building each day. Switching teams midseason is no easy task, and learning new calls/language along with building chemistry takes time.


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Although Minnesota is down several pieces along the defensive line, they still generating the league lead in sacks per game (3.1). Zimmer is well-deserving of his hot seat due to various reasons, but there is no doubt he is still a very capable defensive mind.

Minnesota is also dealing with the loss of RB Dalvin Cook, but the Vikings are lucky enough to have a pseudo-workhorse in Alexander Mattison and a low-usage speed demon in Kene Nwangwu. This duo can’t fully replicate Cook’s production, but it should be enough.

The hopeful return of WR Adam Thielen should be the biggest boost this team could get as it takes a ton of pressure off of the run game and star WR Justin Jefferson.

Upset Prediction: Rams 23, Vikings 27

Vikings vs Rams Upset Picks

Upset Pick: Vikings Moneyline (+155) at Caesars

Wager: 2 Units

The Rams are a much better team on both sides of the ball than the Vikings are, but with the Rams coming off of a brutal Tuesday matchup against a division rival and heading into Minnesota for a morning game, an upset here would not be shocking.

moneyline

+155

Vikings To Defeat Rams

LA @ MIN | 12/26, 1:00 PM ET

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Bet $20, Payout $51

Upset Pick: Over 49 Total Points (-110) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

Minnesota’s defense is below-average against the rush and through the air, while the Rams are top-10 against both. Unfortunately for the Rams, they are at a disadvantage due to scheduling circumstances, so we may get a skewed look at them on Sunday.

Both teams are in the top-15 of the NFL in pace and should force each other to pass plenty throughout the game with the big play weapons on each side.

over-under

-110

Rams @ Vikings: Over 49 Points

LA @ MIN | 12/26, 1:00 PM ET

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Bet $20, Payout $38

Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings

Always a threat to pop, look for Justin Jefferson to have another big game when the Minnesota Vikings host the Los Angeles Rams this weekend. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)


Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

This is the first true matchup of the season between these AFC East rivals. Yes, the first actual game does not count at all due to the ridiculous weather conditions that threw both teams for a loop.

Looking at this game in a vacuum, the Bills head into New England as the better team. Though they are back-to-back in defense as the two best teams in the NFL, the Bills’ offense ranks higher despite a virtual lack of a rushing attack throughout the season.

For what it’s worth, the Bills did something last week they haven’t done in seemingly forever, which is give Devin Singletary almost all of the backfield touches.

With Zack Moss inactive over the past two weeks and Matt Breida‘s hype short-lived, Singletary seems to be what gives this team the best chance to win.

Meanwhile, the Patriots are down several pieces, including WR Kendrick Bourne, WR Nelson Agholor, and RB Rhamondre Stevenson. While Stevenson’s absence could be mitigated with New England’s depth, starting RB Damien Harris missed last week’s game due to a hamstring injury.

Upset Prediction: Bills 24, Patriots 17

Bills @ Patriots Upset Picks

Upset Pick: Bills Moneyline (+115) at Caesars

Wager: 2 Units

At the end of the day, Josh Allen is a significantly better QB than Mac Jones and the better side to consider when placing a bet. Yes, he can make costly mistakes, but the benefits overall on offense are what you desire. Jones simply helps a team not lose.

Now down several primary weapons, Jones is going to be asked to do a lot more than he has before and pass much more than the three times he did in this most recent matchup.

Back the Bills here with your NFL bet of the day.

moneyline

+115

Bills To Defeat Patriots

BUF @ NE | 12/26, 1:00 PM ET

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Bet $20, Payout $43

Upset Pick: Under 43.5 Total Points (-110) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

New England ranks No. 25 in pace, while Buffalo ranks No. 14. In neutral situations (either team within six), Buffalo ranks second while New England sits dead-last.

This game is quite curious to peg for the Over/Under, but with both teams dealing with offensive absences while ranking first and second in defense, Under 43.5 is the bet.

over-under

-110

Bills @ Patriots: Under 43.5 Points

BUF @ NE | 12/26, 1:00 PM ET

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Thanks for reading our NFL Week 16 Upset Predictions! For more NFL betting tips, check out our NFL Week 16 Best Bets and NFL Week 16 Prop Bets.

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NFL Betting News

  • Early money slightly leaning towards the over in the 49ers-Rams matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting good two-way action on the over/under for the NFC Championship Game matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 46 points has attracted 55% of the bets and 60% of the money thus far. Much moreso than the AFC Championship Game, the betting splits on the point spread and total in this game are much more evenly split, so the sportsbook does not have too much liability on either at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Los Angeles's -170 moneyline odds have attracted 60% of the bets and 70% of the money.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early bettors give slight lean to the Rams over the 49ers

    Based on the betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook, the favored Los Angeles Rams are getting slightly more betting attention in their matchup with the San Francisco 49ers.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Los Angeles's -3.5 point spread has received 65% of the bets and 61% of the handle thus far. Bettors are clearly torn in this matchup considering the Rams have arguably been playing better football through the first two playoff games, while the 49ers have won six consecutive games against the Rams, including a thrilling Week 18 overtime victory in Los Angeles.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early money more than 4/1 on the over in the Bengals-Chiefs matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's over/under in the matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 54.5 points has attracted 75% of the bets and 85% of the money thus far. At this point, the sportsbook has big liability to the Chiefs point spread and the over in this matchup, as their most ideal scenario would be a Bengals cover in a low-scoring game at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Kansas City's -335 moneyline odds have attracted 58% of the bets and 61% of the money.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • Early money 3/1 on the Chiefs over the Bengals

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs, as the majority of the action is backing the favored Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Kansas City's -7 point spread has received 61% of the bets and 76% of the handle thus far. Cincinnati is shaping up to be the biggest need of any side or any total this weekend, as the public seems to be enamored with the Chiefs after their thrilling Divisional Round win over Buffalo.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • 49ers-Rams over/under reaches lowest number of the week

    After another line movement, the over/under for the NFC Championship matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams has reached its lowest total of the week.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the 49ers-Rams over/under on Sunday night was posted at 47.5 points. It was quickly bet down to 46.5 in less than 24 hours. However, it has once again moved toward the under, and now currently sits at 46 points. Given that there has not yet been buyback on the over, it is extremely unlikely we see the total get back to anywhere close to the 47.5 points it opened at.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page