2021 Fantasy Football Busts Projections Week 16 | Sit ‘Em Picks & Players Who’ll Disappoint

The players I name in this article each week may have unfavorable matchups, situational changes that negatively affect their value, injury concerns, and other various reasons to avoid having them in your lineups for that specific week.

The adage “stick with your studs” only applies to a few elite fantasy options. You should not be married to all your starters every week, but instead, pick and choose which players have the best matchups and highest potential of fantasy points each week.

I know that can be a lot of work, but don’t worry, I have you covered with fantasy football tips!

This weekly fantasy football bust article, partnered with my weekly waiver wire article, will assist you in your sit/start decisions each week of the 2021 season.

2021 Fantasy Football Busts for Week 16 – Quarterback

Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos

If you advanced in the fantasy football playoffs, I doubt you had Derek Carr on your roster. If for some crazy reason you did, you may want to sit him this week.

Carr has been ice cold for fantasy since the Raiders bye week. He has thrown multiple touchdowns in just one of his last seven games. He has thrown six interceptions in that span and passed for over 300 passing yards just once in those seven games.

The Denver Broncos have given up the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. They have given up four touchdown passes in their last four games but have held Patrick Mahomes without a touchdown pass and Joe Burrow to just one in that span. Carr shouldn’t be in anyone’s lineup in Week 16.

Mac Jones, New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Mac Jones is coming off a decent performance against the Indianapolis Colts. He threw for 299 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jones did throw 2 interceptions in the loss for the New England Patriots. His matchup in Week 16 is one you should avoid if you can.

The last time Jones played the Buffalo Bills, he completed just 2 of 3 attempts for 19 passing yards. No, that isn’t a typo. To be fair, the weather was horrible, and the Patriots were able to pull off a 14-10 win with their run game. I don’t expect the same game plan this week, but the Bills are very tough against the pass.

The Bills have given up the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this year. They have allowed a quarterback to throw multiple touchdown passes just three times this season and just once in their last 10 games. This is not the week to put faith in the rookie quarterback to lead you to a fantasy football playoff victory.

More Week 16 Busts To Avoid:

  • Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons vs Detroit Lions

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2021 Fantasy Football Busts for Week 16 – Running Back

Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos

The Raiders offense hasn’t been very productive as of late. They have scored fewer than 20 points in 6 of their last 7 games. Josh Jacobs has surpassed 52 rushing yards in just one of his last six games.

Combine the Raiders offensive woes with Jacobs’ inefficiency and you’ve got a matchup nightmare heading into Week 16.

The Broncos have given up the 6th fewest fantasy points to running backs this season. They have allowed just one running back to rush for more than 60 yards in their last 4 games. In that span, the Broncos have held Austin Ekeler to 31 rush yards, Clyde Edwards-Helaire to 54 and Joe Mixon to just 58 rush yards. Jacobs has not been playing close to the same level as the backs listed above. The Denver Broncos should have little trouble containing the Raiders and their run attack this week.

Ronald Jones II, Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers

The running back position has been a wasteland for a lot of fantasy managers this year, so I understand the need to potentially play Ronald Jones II this week. Just lower your expectations.

Although Leonard Fournette is expected to miss time with a hamstring injury, Jones is not Fournette. Jones has carried the ball just 19 times in his last four games combined. Eight of those 19 carries came last week when Jones replaced Fournette in the second half against the New Orleans Saints.

The Carolina Panthers have given up the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to running backs this year. They haven’t allowed a running back to rush over 100 yards since Dalvin Cook rushed for 140 yards on them in Week 6. Jones hasn’t played enough snaps this season to show he can have a monster game against a top-run defense. I expect the Buccaneers to lean on Tom Brady to get the job done against the stout Carolina defense.

More Week 16 Busts To Avoid:

  • Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

2021 Fantasy Football Busts for Week 16 – Wide Receiver

D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This may be a tempting matchup to start D.J. Moore in Week 16. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have given up the 11th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks but have held wide receivers to the 12th-fewest points on the year.

There’s no doubt that Moore gets the target volume you want in your fantasy wideout, but he’s struggled for production with Cam Newton at quarterback. Moore has been targeted 31 times in his last three games but has only caught 16 of those targets. He has just one touchdown in his last 10 games.

Regardless of the matchup, Moore is a risky play this week. The Buccaneers have given up 142 rushing yards to quarterbacks in their last 2 games. I expect Newton to struggle once again in the passing department and rely on his legs for production this week.

Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders

This Broncos-Raiders game is something to avoid for fantasy. Denver has been struggling at quarterback and Jerry Jeudy was just held without a catch in Week 15.

Regardless of who is at quarterback for the Broncos, Jeudy hasn’t been much of a factor lately. He has been targeted six or fewer times in each of his last four games. He’s had under five receptions in four of those games and put up a zero with Drew Lock last week.

The Raiders have given up the 5th fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. They have allowed just one wideout (Tyreek Hill) to surpass 60 receiving yards in their last three games.

More Week 16 Busts To Avoid:

  • Kenny Golladay, New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles

Find better Week 16 fantasy football players on the waiver wire with our 2021 Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Top Pickups.


2021 Fantasy Football Bust for Week 16 – Tight End

Tyler Conklin, Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Rams

As much as I wanted Tyler Conklin to produce last week, he fell flat. Kirk Cousins has been focusing on his wide receivers in the passing game. Conklin has three or fewer targets in four of his last five games. He has under 30 receiving yards in four of his last six games.

At this point, he isn’t someone who can be trusted in your fantasy lineups and his matchup doesn’t factor into his fantasy outlook.

More Week 16 Busts To Avoid:

  • Evan Engram, New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles

Find better Week 16 fantasy football players to start with our 2021 Fantasy Football Sleepers Predictions.


2021 Fantasy Football Bust for Week 16 – Defensive Team

Miami Dolphins Defense D/ST @ New Orleans Saints

The Miami Dolphins defense has been able to get at the quarterback lately. They have totaled an impressive 25 sacks in their last six games. They are heavily rostered (79%) and I am sure they will be started in many fantasy playoff games this week. Don’t be one of them.

The New Orleans Saints offense presents plenty of problems for the Dolphins. First, sacks will be hard to come back with a mobile quarterback like Taysom Hill. Second, the Saints have Alvin Kamara back and he can expose defenses on the ground and through the air attack.

The Saints were just held to nine points against the Buccaneers last week, but I can’t see this team putting up two offensive duds in a row. There are plenty of other options for you to play over the Dolphins this week. I suggest looking into matchups and pivoting in Week 16.

More Week 16 Busts To Avoid:

  • Indianapolis Colts Defense D/ST @ Arizona Cardinals

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Schedule & Odds

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NFL Betting News

  • Early money slightly leaning towards the over in the 49ers-Rams matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting good two-way action on the over/under for the NFC Championship Game matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 46 points has attracted 55% of the bets and 60% of the money thus far. Much moreso than the AFC Championship Game, the betting splits on the point spread and total in this game are much more evenly split, so the sportsbook does not have too much liability on either at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Los Angeles's -170 moneyline odds have attracted 60% of the bets and 70% of the money.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early bettors give slight lean to the Rams over the 49ers

    Based on the betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook, the favored Los Angeles Rams are getting slightly more betting attention in their matchup with the San Francisco 49ers.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Los Angeles's -3.5 point spread has received 65% of the bets and 61% of the handle thus far. Bettors are clearly torn in this matchup considering the Rams have arguably been playing better football through the first two playoff games, while the 49ers have won six consecutive games against the Rams, including a thrilling Week 18 overtime victory in Los Angeles.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early money more than 4/1 on the over in the Bengals-Chiefs matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's over/under in the matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 54.5 points has attracted 75% of the bets and 85% of the money thus far. At this point, the sportsbook has big liability to the Chiefs point spread and the over in this matchup, as their most ideal scenario would be a Bengals cover in a low-scoring game at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Kansas City's -335 moneyline odds have attracted 58% of the bets and 61% of the money.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • Early money 3/1 on the Chiefs over the Bengals

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs, as the majority of the action is backing the favored Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Kansas City's -7 point spread has received 61% of the bets and 76% of the handle thus far. Cincinnati is shaping up to be the biggest need of any side or any total this weekend, as the public seems to be enamored with the Chiefs after their thrilling Divisional Round win over Buffalo.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • 49ers-Rams over/under reaches lowest number of the week

    After another line movement, the over/under for the NFC Championship matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams has reached its lowest total of the week.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the 49ers-Rams over/under on Sunday night was posted at 47.5 points. It was quickly bet down to 46.5 in less than 24 hours. However, it has once again moved toward the under, and now currently sits at 46 points. Given that there has not yet been buyback on the over, it is extremely unlikely we see the total get back to anywhere close to the 47.5 points it opened at.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page