NFL Week 15 Upset Predictions & Picks | Biggest Upsets for Week 15

Week 15 of the NFL season is upon us. Now that we are well into December, we have a much better idea of which teams are contenders and which are pretenders.

Now that we have a solid sample size of games to judge teams on, team-adjusted stats like DVOA have a ton of value. We also have to be aware of how injuries have affected teams to this point.

As always, context is key.

With that in mind, let’s dive into some NFL Week 15 upset predictions and best bets.

Please note that all NFL gameday odds and lines are current as of 5:00 p.m. ET on Thursday, December 16.

NFL Week 15 Upset Predictions

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

Monday Night Football this week features division rivals Chicago and Minnesota in their first matchup of the season. While neither team is exactly a powerhouse, the Vikings can attest to some semblance of competence despite a record with only 2 more wins than Chicago.

Thanks to superstars Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook, the Vikings’ offense is strong. Kirk Cousins has held his own this season, performing like a top-10 QB.

Cousins’ 27 touchdowns to 5 interceptions are as pristine a ratio you can ask for, and while you may retort that it is thanks to his talented weaponry, Cousins’ career-low sack rate is also a testament to how well he has performed individually.


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Oddly enough, the Vikings’ defense is what has held the team back this season. What is typically their bread and butter is now their kryptonite. The Vikings rank 20th in total defensive DVOA and, importantly, for this particular matchup, 26th versus the rush.

With Justin Fields at the helm, Chicago has executed a high-powered rushing attack, regardless of David Montgomery or Khalil Herbert playing out of the backfield.

The Bears’ defense is quite suspect as well, but they do get the benefit of playing at home with Minnesota down WR2 Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook’s shoulder potentially ripping off once more.

Upset Prediction: Bears 27, Vikings 23

Vikings vs. Bears Upset Picks

Upset Pick: Bears Moneyline (+200) at Caesars

Wager: 2 Units

The Bears at home versus an understaffed Kirk Cousins in primetime is setting up decently for an upset. Minnesota is coming off of an extended rest due to playing last Thursday. However, given that this game is on Monday, the Bears should also be rested.

moneyline

+200

Bears To Defeat Vikings

MIN @ CHI | 12/20, 8:15 PM ET

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Upset Pick: Over 44 Total Points (-110) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

Again, the defenses are suspect on both ends, despite near-elite production in recent history.

The Bears are down multiple coordinators, including OC Bill Lazor, who was running some clever plays with mid-season additions Jakeem Grant and Damiere Byrd. But, if those plays are in the “new” playbook and are working, it’s tough to imagine even a mediocre coach like Matt Nagy going away from them.

Also, Minnesota plays at the 7th-fastest pace (Chicago is ranked 20th), which should keep this game moving quickly.

over-under

-110

Vikings @ Bears: Over 44 Points

MIN @ CHI | 12/20, 8:15 PM ET

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Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears

With Justin Fields at the helm for Chicago, the Bears have been able to successfully establish the run against opponents, which they’ll look to do against the Minnesota Vikings. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)


Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos

This wouldn’t exactly be a “big” upset, but the Bengals are 2.5-point underdogs in Denver. Of course, the altitude is always a concern for any team flying in, but it can be a mitigating factor depending on when they land and practice.

The only thing that may concern me is Joe Burrow’s ailing finger that seemed like an issue in the early portion of last Sunday’s game versus San Francisco. There have not been many reports of the issue since, as these kinds of things could be kept under wraps.

The good news is that Joe Mixon, who was limited last week, is likely not dealing with his illness and should be a full go.

Cincinnati is down starting CB Chidobe Awuzie, who has been a stellar offseason pickup, which could hurt against the talented WR trio of Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and Tim Patrick, but it’s just a matter of whether Teddy Bridgewater is comfortable pushing the ball downfield consistently.

The Broncos just whooped the Detroit Lions, yet won’t get much belief on their end from me, especially with budding RB Javonte Williams ailing and that aforementioned WR corps hardly producing.

Upset Prediction: Bengals 24, Broncos 17

Bengals vs. Broncos Upset Picks

Upset Pick: Bengals Moneyline (+130) at Caesars

Wager: 2 Units

Cincinnati is better than Denver on both sides of the ball. Their offense is significantly more dynamic given how well star WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are performing, along with rejuvenated RB Joe Mixon.

Quarterback Joe Burrow looks like he didn’t lose a step one year removed from tearing multiple knee ligaments and not to mention their defense, which ranks 12th relative to Denver’s 21st.

moneyline

+130

Bengals To Defeat Broncos

CIN @ DEN | 12/19, 4:05 PM ET

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Upset Pick: Under 44 Total Points (-110) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

Despite both teams possessing neutral run-pass splits (smack-dab in the middle of the league in rush and pass attempts), they are bottom-5 in pace and possess strong enough run games to run out the clock if they build a strong enough lead.

over-under

-110

Bengals @ Broncos: Under 44 Total Points

CIN @ DEN | 12/19, 4:05 PM ET

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Thanks for reading our NFL Week 15 Upset Predictions! For more NFL betting tips, check out our NFL Week 15 Best Bets and NFL Week 15 Prop Bets.

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NFL Betting News

  • Early money slightly leaning towards the over in the 49ers-Rams matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting good two-way action on the over/under for the NFC Championship Game matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 46 points has attracted 55% of the bets and 60% of the money thus far. Much moreso than the AFC Championship Game, the betting splits on the point spread and total in this game are much more evenly split, so the sportsbook does not have too much liability on either at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Los Angeles's -170 moneyline odds have attracted 60% of the bets and 70% of the money.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early bettors give slight lean to the Rams over the 49ers

    Based on the betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook, the favored Los Angeles Rams are getting slightly more betting attention in their matchup with the San Francisco 49ers.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Los Angeles's -3.5 point spread has received 65% of the bets and 61% of the handle thus far. Bettors are clearly torn in this matchup considering the Rams have arguably been playing better football through the first two playoff games, while the 49ers have won six consecutive games against the Rams, including a thrilling Week 18 overtime victory in Los Angeles.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early money more than 4/1 on the over in the Bengals-Chiefs matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's over/under in the matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 54.5 points has attracted 75% of the bets and 85% of the money thus far. At this point, the sportsbook has big liability to the Chiefs point spread and the over in this matchup, as their most ideal scenario would be a Bengals cover in a low-scoring game at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Kansas City's -335 moneyline odds have attracted 58% of the bets and 61% of the money.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • Early money 3/1 on the Chiefs over the Bengals

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs, as the majority of the action is backing the favored Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Kansas City's -7 point spread has received 61% of the bets and 76% of the handle thus far. Cincinnati is shaping up to be the biggest need of any side or any total this weekend, as the public seems to be enamored with the Chiefs after their thrilling Divisional Round win over Buffalo.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • 49ers-Rams over/under reaches lowest number of the week

    After another line movement, the over/under for the NFC Championship matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams has reached its lowest total of the week.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the 49ers-Rams over/under on Sunday night was posted at 47.5 points. It was quickly bet down to 46.5 in less than 24 hours. However, it has once again moved toward the under, and now currently sits at 46 points. Given that there has not yet been buyback on the over, it is extremely unlikely we see the total get back to anywhere close to the 47.5 points it opened at.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page