Welcome to Week 14! We’re once again missing some bye week players, but we’re almost through bye weeks and into the home stretch of the NFL season.
I’m seeing lots of great value out there this week, so let’s dig in and see if we can use some recent trends to help us bring home a winning week.
All NFL Week 14 odds and lines are current as of Friday, December 10 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Best NFL Player Props Week 14
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Derek Carr: Over 259.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 0.5 Units
I’ll start by saying that Kansas City’s defense allows 261.8 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. That doesn’t give us much wiggle room here, but Derek Carr is likely going to need to throw a lot to keep pace with Patrick Mahomes on Sunday.
Carr has surpassed this total in eight of 12 games this season, including Week 10 when he threw for 261 yards against the Chiefs. While I’m dropping down to a half-unit here, I think Carr will have another productive passing day in this potential shootout.
Josh Jacobs: Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
I’m speaking out of both sides of my mouth a bit in saying Carr is going to have to throw a lot while also recommending a Josh Jacobs over, yet here we are. Jacobs has seen increased usage lately with 35 carries over his last two games combined and figures to stay busy with Kenyan Drake (ankle) out for the season.
With Jacobs averaging 3.8 yards per carry this season, he’ll need 15 totes to hit the Over if he performs at that level. That’s certainly doable given his recent uptick in volume as well as Kansas City’s mediocre run defense.
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New Orleans Saints at New York Jets
Taysom Hill: Under 188.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 0.5 Units
Look, Taysom Hill just isn’t a good quarterback. He’s just as likely to run for 200 yards as he is to pass for 200 yards (I’m partly kidding, but only partly).
While Hill threw for 264 yards in his first start of the season last week, he’s highly unlikely to throw the ball anywhere near 41 times against the New York Jets this week. With Alvin Kamara back from injury and ready to go, look for New Orleans to lean on its ground game and defense to pound the Jets into submission.
Alvin Kamara: Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
While Hill shouldn’t need to throw the ball much, a good chunk of his targets will likely go to Kamara on short throws. The Saints don’t have many receiving threats and Kamara is one of the best pass-catching backs in the league.
Kamara was heavily involved in the passing game prior to his injury, catching 22 of 30 targets for 248 receiving yards in his last four games before going down. He’ll also get the benefit of facing a Jets defense that allows the second-most receiving yards to opposing running backs.
Fire up Kamara for our NFL bet of the day.
Will New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara have a big game in his return from injury against the New York Jets in NFL Week 14? (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Josh Allen: Under 297.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Tampa Bay’s passing defense struggled to start the season, but they’ve been much better as of late and are allowing 261.3 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Josh Allen has been a disappointment this year with just four games over 300 passing yards, including only one in his past six contests. Even with the high total on our NFL gameday odds, I’m taking the Under here due to Allen’s inconsistency.
Rob Gronkowski: Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
The Bills are very good against tight ends, but Rob Gronkowski isn’t just any tight end and Tom Brady isn’t just any quarterback. Gronk has looked great since returning from injury and is once again a focal point of Tampa Bay’s offense.
Gronkowski has seen 25 targets over his last three games and has notched at least 58 receiving yards in all three. While the matchup may not be ideal, Gronk is one of the few matchup-proof tight ends in the NFL. Back the Over with confidence in this likely shootout.
Best NFL Player Prop Bets Today
Best Bet: Justin Fields Over 187.5 Passing Yards (+100) at Caesars
Wager: 2 Units
I can’t say that I love putting this much faith in Justin Fields as he comes off an injury against a tough opponent on the road, but this total is low enough that I’m willing to throw caution into the wind.
Fields looked fantastic in his last full game, throwing for a career-high 291 yards against the Steelers. While Green Bay’s unit defends the pass well, they still allow an average of 237.8 yards per game to the position.
The Bears are almost guaranteed to be playing from behind on Sunday Night Football, so I think we can lock this one in.
Best Bet: Matt Ryan Over 230.5 Passing Yards (+110) at Caesars
Wager: 2 Units
While the Panthers are really good against opposing quarterbacks and only allow 196.9 passing yards per game to the position (second in the league), the team is in disarray and I think Matt Ryan will be able to take advantage of that.
Age seems to have caught up to Matty Ice a bit, but both Kyle Pitts and Russell Gage are coming on, offering him viable targets in the absence of Calvin Ridley. Ryan has been extremely up-and-down this season, but he’s coming off a 297-yard performance last week so I’m feeling good about him heading into this matchup.
Nick Raducanu’s 2021 NFL Props Betting Record: 37-48, -11.5 Units
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