Welcome to Week 8! Last week was my second middling week in a row, but I still finished with a winning record at 6-5. Let’s see if we can improve on that with our NFL Week 8 player prop picks below.
All odds and lines are current as of 1 PM EST on Friday, October 29.
Best NFL Player Prop Bets to Make in Week 8
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Best NFL Player Props Week 8
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen Over 283.5 Passing Yards (-125) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
The Miami Dolphins are giving up 311.5 passing yards per game, which is second-worst in the NFL. That bodes well for Josh Allen, who has exceeded 300 passing yards in three of his last four games.
While I don’t think the Buffalo Bills will be playing from behind much in this game, they also don’t have a great rushing attack. Allen has attempted at least 30 passes in every game but one this season, so he should still throw enough to approach 300 passing yards.
Tua Tagovailoa Over 235.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 0.5 Units
As bad as Miami’s defense is against the pass, Buffalo’s defense is the exact opposite, allowing the fewest passing yards per game (192.5) in the NFL. That should scream “Under” here, right?
Well, not exactly. While my drop to 0.5 units here shows my lack of extreme confidence, I’m also going to go with a quarterback who is seemingly playing for his job and has played well in the two games since he returned from injury.
Tua Tagovailoa‘s opponent is obviously a lot tougher this week, but he’s thrown for over 290 yards in each of his last two games. He should be able to top a relatively low total of 236 passing yards in a game where the Dolphins are likely going to be playing from behind for most of it.
Mike Gesicki Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Tua’s passing yards have to come from somewhere, and I think they’re going to have to come from the tight end position as Buffalo is allowing the second-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers this season.
Mike Gesicki has emerged as one of Miami’s most reliable pass-catchers this season, registering at least six targets and 40 receiving yards in six straight games. He’s topped 50 receiving yards in four of his last five games, so this prop is quite reasonable given his target share.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
A.J. Brown Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
A.J. Brown has been on a heater since his return from injury and the worries of him being on a pitch count seem to have been nothing but worries. Brown has seen nine targets in each of his last two games while eclipsing 90 receiving yards both times. He’s also been remarkably efficient with an 83% catch rate and 14.9 yards per catch over his last two games.
The Indianapolis Colts have a decent pass defense, but they’re not exactly the Bills or Los Angeles Chargers in that respect so we don’t need to worry too much about the matchup for Brown here.
Michael Pittman Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Speaking of heaters, say hello to Michael Pittman.
The second-year player has recorded at least 59 receiving yards in five of his last six games and is coming off his second 100-yard effort of the season. He’s also averaging a whopping 14.5 yards per reception this season and has solidified himself as Carson Wentz’s go-to target while T.Y. Hilton has battled injuries.
This is also an incredibly juicy matchup for Pittman, as the Tennessee Titans are allowing the most yards to wide receivers this year.
Indianapolis Colts WR Michael Pittman will look to continue his strong season against the Tennessee Titans’ porous secondary in Week 8. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert Over 10.5 Rushing Yards (-120) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
I don’t love trying to predict quarterback rushing yards, but this (low) total stuck out to me as Justin Herbert has topped it in four of his last five games. He’s had multiple rushing attempts in every game and the New England Patriots have really slow linebackers, so we only need one or two plays where Herbert escapes containment in order to cash our NFL bet of the day.
Keenan Allen Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
While New England’s numbers suggest they’re good at limiting opposing receivers, they’ve also played some terrible teams so those stats are a bit misleading. They were torched by the Dallas Cowboys at home two weeks ago and could struggle again versus LA’s high-octane aerial attack.
Allen has only topped 65 receiving yards in three of his six games this season, but he’s still seeing plenty of targets at just under 10 per game. He also operates primarily out of the slot and will face a Patriots secondary that just lost its best slot corner (Jonathan Jones) for the season and is relying on a former practice squad member to man the position.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Tom Brady Under 308.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
I hate to pick against my favorite player ever (and current MVP favorite?!), but 309 passing yards is a high total for anyone, even for Tom Brady. He’s reached 300 passing yards just once in his last four games and will be without one of his top receivers in Antonio Brown this week.
The New Orleans Saints also have a strong defense that’s limited opposing quarterbacks to 265.5 passing yards per game. Look for them to keep Brady in check at home.
Alvin Kamara Under 16.5 Rushing Attempts (-130) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Opposing teams have more or less abandoned the run against Tampa Bay’s stout front seven this season as the Bucs have faced a league-low 13.7 rushing attempts per game thus far.
While Alvin Kamara has topped 15 rushing attempts in five of his six games this season, the Saints just brought Mark Ingram back into the fold with the likely intention of reducing Kamara’s workload. With Kamara averaging a career-low 3.7 yards per attempt this season, look for him to cede some carries and be more involved in the passing game, especially if New Orleans falls behind early.
Best NFL Player Prop Bets Today
Best Bet: Deebo Samuel Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 2 Units
In the name of transparency, I started writing about Jimmy Garoppolo being a nice Over play at 208.5 passing yards this week (which I still think he is). But then I started thinking about how he might piece together 210+ yards, and the name Deebo Samuel kept coming up over and over.
Samuel has been one of the most prolific receivers in the NFL this season, averaging a whopping 10.5 targets and 108 receiving yards per game. He’s also been one of the league’s most explosive players as well, averaging an NFL-best 15.2 yards per touch.
Deebo should have little trouble posting similar numbers against a Chicago Bears defense allowing the ninth-most yards to opposing wide receivers at 179.7 receiving yards per game.
Best Bet: Trevor Lawrence Over 239.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 2 Units
Trevor Lawrence rewarded my confidence in him with an Over two weeks ago, and I’m going back to the well again this week. The rookie has exceeded 200 passing yards and 30 pass attempts five times each this season, which is the type of volume we like to see with a relatively low prop such as this.
The Seattle Seahawks have also struggled against the pass and are allowing the sixth-most passing yards per game this season at 294.1. With at least 270 passing yards in each of his last two games, Lawrence should end up closer to 300 passing yards than 200 this week.
Nick Raducanu’s 2021 NFL Props Betting Record: 15-14, +2.05 Units
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