We finally had a down week of predictions in Week 4 as the Los Angeles Rams lost outright to the Arizona Cardinals, but at least we were able to limit the damage by hitting on the Over.
It’s time to turn the page to Week 5, however, and this week we’ll break down a clash of upstart Super Bowl contenders; the Cleveland Browns and Los Angeles Chargers.
Both teams enter Week 5 at 3-1 and tied for first in their respective divisions. The Browns have won three straight since narrowly losing to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1, while the Chargers are coming off a big win against the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday Night Football.
This is a huge game between two of the best teams in the AFC, so let’s dive in with our Browns vs Chargers predictions and best bets. Please note that all odds are current as of Friday, October 8.
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Browns vs Chargers Prediction
Cleveland’s defense is rolling right now after limiting the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings to a combined 13 points over their last two games while racking up 11 sacks. The Browns rank 13th in pass DVOA and 1st in rush DVOA this season, so they’re likely to slow down the Chargers’ offense.
LA’s defense has also been elite, ranking 4th in pass DVOA after holding Derek Carr, Patrick Mahomes, and Dak Prescott to a combined 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Head coach Brandon Staley is a defensive mastermind who will likely make life difficult for Baker Mayfield.
The Browns have a chance to get their running game rolling here, as the Chargers rank 25th in rush DVOA. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should be able to do some damage against this defense.
The problem for Cleveland is that Los Angeles has a significant advantage at quarterback with Justin Herbert. Herbert has been exceptional lately, throwing seven touchdowns with no interceptions over his last two contests. In what should be a close game, I think he’ll lead the Chargers to victory at home.
Prediction: Chargers 24, Browns 19
Browns vs Chargers Best Bets
Best Bet: Chargers -2 (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 2 Units
I like the fact that we’re getting the team with the better quarterback and home-field advantage at such a low point spread. LA’s defense is just as good as Cleveland’s and I don’t think Mayfield will be able to keep up with Herbert.
Mayfield is coming off a poor outing against the Vikings where he completed only 45.5 percent of his passes at 4.7 yards per attempt, and now he’ll face one of the best pass defenses in football. It’s a bad spot for him, so lay the points with the Chargers.
Best Bet: Under 47.5 Total Points (-115) at WynnBet
Wager: 2 Units
Starting with Week 1, Browns games have combined for 62, 52, 32, and 21 points this season, while Chargers games have gone for 36, 37, 54, and 42 points. As we can see here, both defenses are fully capable of keeping the game low-scoring.
You also have to consider that if Cleveland is able to run the ball effectively, that will result in longer drives that take more time off the clock, which is good news for the Under and our NFL bet of the day.
Browns vs Chargers Same Game Parlay Picks
- Chargers -1.5 (-105) at WynnBet
- Under 47.5 Total Points (-115) at WynnBet
Same Game Parlay Odds: +240
Wager: 1 Unit
The Chargers and the Under look like the right side due to Mayfield’s recent struggles as well as the way LA’s offense is clicking right now. The Browns should be able to run the ball against the Chargers’ defense, which will help the Under hit.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see the point spread move more towards Los Angeles, as 1.5 points seem too low for the home team with the better quarterback and a comparable defense. Accordingly, keep an eye on our NFL gameday odds in case the lines shift throughout the week.
Frank’s Betting Record
- Season: +12.72 Units
- Week 4: -1.2 Units
- Week 3: +4.64 Units
- Week 2: +4.64 Units
- Week 1: +4.64 Units