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Week 2 NFL is all about the overreaction. Typically, you want to fade the teams in which oddsmakers and the public are overreacting to and play on the teams that are being downplayed. Looking into the box scores is more important than the actual final score as a means to find value.
Best Bet: Christian McCaffrey Over 113.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) at BetMGM
For in-depth analysis on this NFL bet of the day and others, continue reading.
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Best NFL Player Props Week 2
Los Angeles Rams @ Indianapolis Colts
The Rams come into Week 2 off of an impressive 34-14 win against the Chicago Bears on Sunday Night Football. The Colts are coming off of a loss at home to the Seattle Seahawks in which they did not play well.
Do not let the score fool you, the Colts scored a late touchdown to make it 28-16. I like some of the secondary players in this game for the Rams, as I think they roll again this week. Note the Colts have two key defensive players listed as questionable in Darius Leonard and Xavier Rhodes.
Darrell Henderson Over 54.5 rushing yards (-110) at Caesars
Darrell Henderson rushed 16 times for 70 yards in Week 1 against the Bears. He dominated the touches in the backfield as Sony Michel was a non-factor.
While I would expect Michel to get a little more involved this week, I still see Henderson having the lion’s share of the carries, especially if the Rams get out to a big lead. The Seahawks racked up 140 yards rushing against this Colts’ defense in Week 1.
Tyler Higbee Over 40.5 receiving yards (-120) at Caesars
Tyler Higbee had a solid Week 1 performance with five receptions on six targets for 68 yards. He had the second-most targets behind Cooper Kupp and is the clear number one tight end with Gerald Everett gone. The Colts allowed 57 yards to the Seattle tight ends in Week 1.
Higbee hit this over seven times in 2020 despite splitting time with Everett, and the upgrade at quarterback from Jared Goff to Matthew Stafford is significant.
After taking over the starting role, Los Angeles running back Darrell Henderson looks to keep the momentum going in Week 2 against the Indianapolis Colts. (Image: USA TODAY)
Denver Broncos @ Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars laid an egg as 3 point road favorites in Week 1 against the Houston Texans. Now, they are home and 6 point underdogs to the Denver Broncos.
The Broncos’ defense lived up to their reputation against the New York Giants with a strong 27-13 road win. The Broncos owned the time of possession game against the Giants (35 to 25), and I can see more of the same here against the Jaguars.
I expect the Broncos to establish the run early and often to control the line of scrimmage and win with their defense against rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
Javonte Williams Over 46.5 Rushing Yards (-130) at Caesars
The Broncos racked up 165 yards rushing last week against the Giants, while the Jaguars allowed 160 yards rushing to the Texans.
Javonte Williams actually out-carried Melvin Gordon 14 to 11 but only had 45 yards. Gordon broke off a huge 70-yard run that pushed his total over 100 yards. I look for Williams to get more of the workload this week and easily go over 46.5 yards.
Trevor Lawrence Over 0.5 Interceptions (-155) at BetMGM
Trevor Lawrence had three interceptions on 51 attempts last week against the Texans. I think this will be a common theme this year, as the Jaguars’ defense will put the offense in a hole and force Lawrence to throw a ton.
Lawrence faces one of the best defenses and secondaries in the NFL with Denver, and it could be a long day for the rookie QB.
Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Chargers
The game with the highest total on the board at 54.5 and a small line (Chargers -3.5) is a strong indicator for a high-scoring close game. The Cowboys come in with extra rest off their close loss in Week 1 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Chargers looked solid on offense on the road against Washington, who has one of the best defenses in the league. The Cowboys come in banged up on defense without DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory.
I think this game will play out similar to the Bucs game in that both teams will combine for at least 60 points, and the margin will be 3 or less.
Amari Cooper Over 74.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Amari Cooper had 13 receptions for 139 receiving yards on a league-high 17 targets in Week 1 against the Bucs, and with Michael Gallup out again, I would expect him to have another big game. The Cowboys also get OL Zach Martin back, which will help in pass protection.
Justin Herbert Over 302.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
The Cowboys gave up 31 points to the Bucs Week 1 and are now without DeMarcus Lawrence. Justin Herbert threw the ball 47 times against the WFT for 337 yards. Now he gets a much weaker defense that gave up 379 passing yards to Tom Brady.
The potential for 400 yards passing was there if not for several drops by his wide receivers. I think Herbert leads the NFL in passing yards this week and surpasses 50 pass attempts.
Best NFL Player Prop Bets Today
Christian McCaffrey Over 112.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) at BetMGM
In Week 1, Christian McCaffrey looked like the 2019 version of CMC that we saw go for almost 2,500 total yards. He had 187 total yards on 21 rushes and 9 receptions.
New Panthers QB Sam Darnold leaned heavily on McCaffrey, and I would expect more of the same against a very tough New Orleans Saints defense. In 2019, he went over 112.5 total yards in 12 out of 16 games.
Ja’Marr Chase Over 74.5 Receiving Yards (-120) at Caesars
Ja’Marr Chase had all the looks of a number one wide receiver in Week 1 with five catches on seven targets for 101 yards and one touchdown.
One of the things I love about Chase going over his receiving yards prop is the renewed connection with his former teammate at LSU in Joe Burrow. They have built-in chemistry, and we just saw Matthew Stafford throw for 321 yards against the Bears’ defense.
