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Week 1 is about working with the best offseason intel we have. Some of this intel, undoubtedly, will lead you astray. Week 2 (and beyond) is all about making the appropriate adjustments.
Like a good head coach, we must react to what we see. When it comes to gambling—and specifically finding the right prop bets—it’s about finding the right matchups and choosing spots.
After a wild opening week that delivered from start to finish, it’s time to keep that momentum going. Here are the prop bets I like heading into the NFL’s second week.
All lines courtesy of DraftKings.
NFL Week 2 Best Prop Bets
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Over 6.5 First-Quarter Points (-195)
So, we start a little chalky among our NFL bet of the day choices. After all, sometimes you have to ease into it.
If Week 1 showed us anything, it’s that Tom Brady, despite being 175 years old, still has it. The Bucs scored seven first-quarter points in the opener against the Cowboys, and I would be shocked if that effort isn’t duplicated or improved upon this week.
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The Falcons were just carved up by Jalen Hurts. I could’ve probably kept my entire reasoning behind this pick at that. That is not to say that Hurts isn’t capable, although the weapons the Bucs will throw at a vulnerable defense will be too much to handle.
Falcons: Over 8.5 First-Half Points (-115)
While the Bucs were brilliant on offense against Dallas, the defense wasn’t exactly a brick wall.
Dallas was able to find success on the scoreboard, doing the majority of its damage through the air. While Atlanta doesn’t have the same caliber of weapons, I’m still quite high on this group even after it only totaled 260 yards of total offense.
That will improve. It has to improve.
Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts will find a way to generate points, and I don’t think it’ll come in garbage time in the second half.
Tampa will win by double digits, but the Atlanta offense will come alive.
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers
First Score Under 19.5 Yards (-120)
Oh, this is fun. With two great quarterbacks and promising skill position players all over the field, I understand the allure of the big play.
But to me, as I scout this game, I look at both running backs, Austin Ekeler and Ezekiel Elliott, and the strong possibility that both teams will attempt to keep the ball out of the other quarterback’s hands.
While Justin Herbert and Dak Prescott know plenty about deep throws, these offenses are not necessarily all-or-nothing groups.
One big play could crush this, although I look for methodical drives and strong games on the ground — a stark contrast from the previous week for both teams that isn’t necessarily reflected in NFL gameday odds.
Total Touchdowns Under 6.5 (-110)
I’ll lean into my strategy from above with another bet and a few more thoughts.
The Cowboys’ first game against Tampa Bay, which felt like a scoring fest, featured seven touchdowns. While I like these two offenses quite a bit, I don’t see the offenses uncorking an encore.
While it might get close, I see it being a lower-scoring game than expected.
Oh, there will still be plenty of touchdowns. Herbert and Prescott will get theirs. But the running game will kill the clock, the teams will play a bit of keep away and the scoreboard, while busy, won’t explode.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
New Orleans-Carolina: Lowest Scoring Game on Sunday (+550)
Let’s explore the depths of prop betting and try our luck at something different with betting tips.
While Jameis Winston was a touchdown machine against the Packers, I’m going to chalk that game up to an offseason of Packers weirdness and Aaron Rodgers‘ new hair.
Well, maybe it was a bit more than that. But my biggest takeaway from that game was actually the Saints’ defense. This looks like a dominant group, and that trend should continue this week against San Darnold.
Carolina, meanwhile, was all over Zach Wilson and the Jets. While much of that was due to the Jets’ subpar O-line, the start was encouraging.
At the odds, I am willing to take a shot. This is behind only Jets-Patriots (+450) and for good reason.
Best NFL Prop Bets Today
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens Over 2.5 Total Touchdowns (-210)
Give me the chalk. All of it.
While some might look at Baltimore’s Monday night loss against the Raiders and run away, I’m running toward it.
The fact that Baltimore is a short underdog against the Chiefs says a lot. So does a total of 55 points, the largest on the board.
There will be points. The Cleveland Browns showed that the Chiefs’ defense is very much there for the taking, and I expect Lamar Jackson to look more like Lamar Jackson.
Baltimore Ravens Over 3.5 First-Quarter Points (-125)
I’ll lean into my logic a little more from above and try to profit from it a bit differently. I love the Ravens to bounce back in this spot, and against the Chiefs that will require points. Lots of ’em.
Playing at home will certainly be a factor as well. I also envision Lamar Jackson coming of the gate strong, just like he did on Monday Night Football.
The first quarter wasn’t the issue against the Raiders. The last quarter (and overtime) were.