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A lot of what I look for in Week 1 NFL is finding teams and players in which the situation has significantly changed from a year ago. Oftentimes, the adjustments made by oddsmakers is not enough, and that is where you can find terrific value. I will also look at games in which the public has at least an 80% market share and then look to fade the public.
After doing some research, I found three games that provide high upside. Let’s get right into these betting tips.
Best Bet: DeAndre Hopkins Over 6.5 Receptions (-120) at BetMGM
For in-depth analysis on this NFL bet of the day and others, continue reading.
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NFL Week 1 Best Prop Bets
New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins
Under 43.5 (-110) at Caesars
The Patriots start the 2021 season with rookie quarterback Mac Jones and a replenished defense from a year ago (several opt outs due to COVID). The Pats also signed tight ends Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith in the off-season to try and recreate the awesome duo of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.
I see them getting back to the short passing, ball control-type offense this year, and that will lead to lower scoring games. The Patriots also have a rookie kicker, Quinn Nordin, who can hit it from 60 yards plus. Bill Belichick will want to control the game on the ground and in the short passing game.
I think Patriots Under will be a trend we see all season, which is reflected in the NFL gameday odds. I can see this game being 20-16 in favor of New England.
Quinn Nordin Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (+105) at Caesars
I will admit that this is a homer pick in the sense that I have been a Patriots fan since 1982, so I follow the team closely. However, Nordin was booming field goals all preseason, and the announcers were mentioning this every game.
While he is not known for his accuracy, he is known for his distance. With the way the Patriots will play on offense this year, I can see Nordin going Over on his field goal props being a very popular play. This is also a correlation play, as games that usually go Under will see more field goals attempted and made vs touchdowns.
Atlanta Falcons wideout Calvin Ridley is primed for a massive performance in Week 1 against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Atlanta Falcons vs Philadelphia Eagles
Calvin Ridley Over 85.5 Receiving Yards (-125) at Caesars
Calvin Ridley steps into the WR1 role in the Falcons offense, now led by head coach Arthur Smith. I love this game being at home and in a dome on turf, which will lead to some big plays for Ridley. I am expecting him to threaten 100+ receiving yards on a weekly basis.
This Eagles secondary had the third-fewest interceptions in the league with eight last year, and they did not improve much in the offseason. Look for Matt Ryan to hit his No. 1 target early and often.
Jalen Hurts Over 8.5 Rushing Attempts (-115) at BetMGM
Jalen Hurts had at least 8 rushing attempts in all four starts in 2020. He averaged 11.5 attempts across those four games, and he’ll have to do more of the same in 2021.
The Eagles’ wide receiving unit is one of the weakest in the league ,and Hurts will have to run a lot on 3rd downs to keep drives alive. In order for Philadelphia to have any shot against Atlanta on the road, Hurts will need to run and run often to extend drives.
Los Angeles Rams vs Chicago Bears
Andy Dalton Longest Pass Completion Under 33.5 Yards (-110) at Caesars
Andy Dalton will be facing arguably the best defense in football on the road against the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams’ defense had the lowest TD % allowed, lowest average yards per attempt, and second-highest sack % in 2020.
It will be a very long day for Dalton, as he will not have enough time to be able to complete a pass to reach 33.5 yards.
Andy Dalton Over 0.5 Interceptions (-150) at Caesars
For much of the same reason I was Under on longest pass completion, I can see Dalton having at least two interceptions and maybe more. The Rams offer the best combination on defense of getting sacks and interceptions. Dalton is probably the worst quarterback on the slate, and he is facing the best defense.
Feel comfortable making this pick.
Best NFL Prop Bets Today
DeAndre Hopkins Over 6.5 Receptions (-120) at BetMGM
This is my No. 1 prop play on the board for Week 1. I love this game to be up and down between the Cardinals and the Titans. DeAndre Hopkins is the best wide receiver in the NFL and this number feels so low.
For reference, he hit this reception number in 10 of 16 games last season, and Kyler Murray was not 100% for a good chunk of the second half of the season. Unsurprisingly, three of the Under games came in November.
With all of that considered, it’s easy to see why this is my pick of the day.
DK Metcalf Over 74.5 Receiving Yards (-120) at Caesars
Another game that I expect fireworks in is Seahawks vs Colts. I love games in a dome on turf when taking Over on receiving/passing props. DK Metcalf has the ability to go for 100+ yards any given week, and he should get even better in year 3.
Moreover, one major talking point this offseason was that the Seahawks will be playing a more up tempo offense in 2021, as their new offensive coordinator came over from the Los Angeles Rams. This bodes well for Metcalf, who figures to benefit from this change in style.
