NFL Week 1 Parlays Picks & Predictions – NFL Play of the Day

Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season is finally here! We’ve spent months researching and analyzing each team, and now it’s time to put our work to the test with some parlay betting.

The theme of Week 1 is to keep it simple. We won’t be overthinking any plays here, just identifying positional advantages and exploiting the point spreads or totals, all of which are current as of 12 PM EST on September 8.

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Best NFL Parlays Week 1

NFL Week 1 Parlay Picks

  • Seattle Seahawks -2 (-110) Spread at BetMGM (at Indianapolis Colts)
  • Green Bay Packers -4.5 (-110) Spread at BetMGM (at New Orleans Saints)
  • Denver Broncos -3 (-105) Spread at BetMGM (at New York Giants)

The Seattle Seahawks take on a banged-up Indianapolis Colts team that is already dealing with injuries to Carson Wentz, T.Y. Hilton, Quenton Nelson, and others. Even if Wentz suits up, there are still lingering concerns from his poor performance last season.

On the other hand, the Seahawks have an improved offensive line with the addition of Gabe Jackson, plus a defense that really came on down the stretch last year following the acquisition of Carlos Dunlap. Seattle’s offense will be one of the best in football, especially with new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron emphasizing a faster-paced approach.

The Green Bay Packers are road favorites in a neutral environment against the New Orleans Saints, making this a solid value play on the better team. The Packers remain one of the best teams in football with Aaron Rodgers under center. Meanwhile, the Saints will be without top wide receiver Michael Thomas and have a new starting quarterback in Jameis Winston. While this could still be a good team, it would definitely be an upset to see them knock off the Packers.

The Denver Broncos have one of the most impressive rosters from top to bottom, with the only concern at the quarterback position. New starter Teddy Bridgewater is accurate and can protect the football, fitting in perfectly on a team with an elite defense that added cornerbacks Patrick Surtain II, Kyle Fuller, and Ronald Darby.

On the other side, the New York Giants have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. They are going to have their hands full against this Broncos’ pass-rush led by Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. This is a battle of an ascending road team against a home team that could be among the worst in the NFL. The Broncos are my favorite pick of the week.

prop bet

+611

SEA -2 @ IND; GB -4.5 @ NO, & DEN -3 @ NYG (NFL Week 1)

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Russell Wilson Seattle Seahawks QB

Russell Wilson’s Seattle Seahawks are one of our NFL Week 1 best bets against the depleted Indianapolis Colts. (Image: USA TODAY)


NFL Week 1 Longshot Parlay Picks

  • Seattle Seahawks (-125) Moneyline at BetMGM (at Indianapolis Colts)
  • Green Bay Packers (-200) Moneyline at BetMGM (at New Orleans Saints)
  • Denver Broncos (-165) Moneyline at BetMGM (at New York Giants)
  • Minnesota Vikings (-175) Moneyline at BetMGM (at Cincinnati Bengals)
  • San Francisco 49ers (-350) Moneyline at BetMGM (at Detroit Lions)

I’ll start off the longshot parlay by playing the moneyline on each of our spread picks from above to avoid potential pushes with Seattle and Denver. The Seahawks (-125) are the best value out of this group, which is reflected in our NFL gameday odds.

I also added the Minnesota Vikings (-175) on the moneyline. They have an improved offensive line with first-rounder Christian Darrisaw, and we could also see some improvement on defense with Danielle Hunter’s return. The Cincinnati Bengals have Joe Burrow making his return from a torn ACL coupled with a porous offensive line, so take the better team with the Vikings here.

The San Francisco 49ers (-350) are 7.5-point favorites against the woeful Detroit Lions. It’s tough to lay that many points on the road, but I’m comfortable adding them to win outright since they’re the much better team. The Niners are talented on both sides of the ball, while the Lions have the worst wide receiving corps in the league along with a questionable quarterback in Jared Goff and a weak defense. San Francisco should be able to run all over Detroit.


NFL Week 1 Same Game Parlay Picks

  • New York Jets +5 (-110) Spread at BetMGM (at Carolina Panthers)
  • Jets/Panthers Over 44.5 (-110) Total at BetMGM

The New York Jets have a new coaching staff with an offensive scheme that will resemble Kyle Shanahan’s in San Francisco, as new offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur comes from that coaching tree. Rookie quarterback Zach Wilson has looked sharp this preseason and so has prized wide receiver signing Corey Davis. The Jets also have an improving offensive line led by first-rounders Mekhi Becton and Alijah Vera-Tucker.

Despite this, they’re 5-point underdogs to former Jets QB Sam Darnold and the Carolina Panthers. It’s tough to lay that many points with a questionable quarterback like Darnold. This looks like a field goal game either way, so it’s wise to take the points.

These are also two young defenses with question marks, so the Over looks good here. It’s only 44.5 points, which is a low bar since you’ll still win the bet even in a 24-21 game. Both quarterbacks can be gunslingers at times, which could lead to turnovers and potentially more points here. Take the Over in this NFL bet of the day.

prop bet

+191

NYJ +5 @ CAR & Point Total Over 44.5 (NFL Week 1)

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