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NFC North Division Winner Odds 2022 | NFL Division Win Futures & Betting Picks

Heading into the 2021 season, the Green Bay Packers (-165) were heavy favorites to win the NFC North. Only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs were heavier favorites to win their respective divisions.

Not only did the Packers go on to win the NFC North with a 13-4 record, but they were the only team in the division with a winning mark in 2021.

Green Bay (-185) is once again a sizable favorite to retain the division crown in 2022. Will the Packers be crowned kings of the North again? And if not, who can challenge them?

The Minnesota Vikings (+275) have the second-shortest odds and were virtually a .500 team last year, finishing 8-9 with a point differential of -1. The Bears and Lions are large underdogs as both teams are in the midst of rebuilds.

Read below, to find out the result of my simulations and to look at each team’s schedule with win probabilities and projected spreads for each game.

Note: These NFC North futures bet odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook and are current as of Wednesday, June 22, at 2 p.m. ET. Be careful, as many of these NFL odds might shift as we get closer to the 2022 NFL season.

NFC North Winner Betting Odds

  • Green Bay Packers (-185)
  • Minnesota Vikings (+275)
  • Chicago Bears (+900)
  • Detroit Lions (+900)

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NFC North Division Simulation

NFC NorthProjected WinsProjected LossesDivision Winner %Division Winner Breakeven Odds
Green Bay Packers10.86.263.2%-172
Minnesota Vikings8.98.124.5%308
Detroit Lions6.710.36.6%1415
Chicago Bears6.410.66.0%1567

Bears Schedule & Win Probabilities

WeekOpponentProjected SpreadProjected Win %
149ers+629.4%
2@ Packers+1016.4%
3Texans-359.4%
4@ Giants+340.6%
5@ Vikings+6.527.7%
6Commanders-0.550.0%
7@ Patriots+6.527.7%
8@ Cowboys+919.3%
9Dolphins+2.545.5%
10Lions-253.5%
11@ Falcons+148.8%
12@ Jets+1.547.5%
13Packers+629.4%
15Eagles+340.6%
16Bills+1016.4%
17@ Lions+246.5%
18Vikings+2.545.5%

The Bears should be underdogs in 14 of their 17 games this season. A home date against the Texans in Week 3 is the only game where I am projecting Chicago to be favored by three points or more.

The key to the Bears’ performance this season is the development of second-year quarterback Justin Fields. If Fields develops faster than projected, the Bears could win the division. If he struggles because of the lack of investment the organization has put into its offense, then a 6-11 record or worse is likely.

Lions Schedule & Win Probabilities

WeekOpponentProjected SpreadProjected Win %
1Eagles+340.6%
2Commanders-0.550.0%
3@ Vikings+6.527.7%
4Seahawks-2.554.5%
5@ Patriots+629.4%
7@ Cowboys+919.3%
8Dolphins+246.5%
9Packers+629.4%
10@ Bears+246.5%
11@ Giants+2.545.5%
12Bills+9.518.9%
13Jaguars-2.554.5%
14Vikings+2.545.5%
15@ Jets+148.8%
16@ Panthers+246.5%
17Bears-253.5%
18@ Packers+1016.4%

The Lions are the punchline of the NFL. Frequently they are one of the worst teams in the league, and last season they finished with the worst record in the NFC (3-13-1).

During the offseason, the Lions drafted defensive end Aidan Hutchinson with the No. 2 overall pick but were hardly active in free agency.

Detroit does, however, have a viable path to win the division if the Packers and Vikings perform poorly. Even though the Lions will only be favored in four games this season, they should be underdogs of a field goal or less on seven other occasions.

If Detroit can string together enough wins against its weak schedule, it could make things interesting this season.

Packers Schedule & Win Probabilities

WeekOpponentProjected SpreadProjected Win %
1@ Vikings-1.552.5%
2Bears-1083.6%
3@ Buccaneers+4.532.7%
4Patriots-5.569.0%
5Giants (London)-9.581.1%
6Jets-10.586.0%
7@ Commanders-4.567.3%
8@ Bills+5.531.1%
9@ Lions-670.7%
10Cowboys-359.4%
11Titans-568.1%
12@ Eagles-151.3%
13@ Bears-670.7%
15Rams-253.5%
16@ Dolphins-1.552.5%
17Vikings-5.569.0%
18Lions-1083.6%

Unsurprisingly, the Packers are favored in 15 of their 17 games this season. The only two games where they are expected to be underdogs are road trips against the Bills and Buccaneers.

The biggest reason why Green Bay is such a hot ticket is the return of their 38-year-old quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers won NFL MVP honors for the second year in a row, racking up 4,115 passing yards, 37 touchdowns, and only four interceptions. He also completed 68.9% percent of his passes, led the NFL in QBR, and was fifth in the league in EPA (Expected Points Added).

If Rodgers gets hurt, then the division would be wide open. Unfortunately for the Vikings, Lions, and Bears, Rodgers has only missed one game over the last four seasons.

Vikings Schedule & Win Probabilities

WeekOpponentProjected SpreadProjected Win %
1Packers+1.547.5%
2@ Eagles+2.545.5%
3Lions-6.572.4%
4@ Saints (London)+1.547.5%
5Bears-6.572.4%
6@ Dolphins+246.5%
8Cardinals-151.3%
9@ Commanders-151.3%
10@ Bills+919.3%
11Cowboys+0.550.0%
12Patriots-253.5%
13Jets-775.2%
14@ Lions-2.554.5%
15Colts-0.550.0%
16Giants-670.7%
17@ Packers+5.531.1%
18@ Bears-2.554.5%

The Vikings were sick of being in Green Bay’s shadow, so they made some organizational changes up top. Minnesota enters 2022 with a new head coach in Kevin O’Connell and a new general manager in Kwesi Adofo-Mensah.

Will this be enough for the Vikings to get over the hump and win the division? Probably not, as they only win the NFC North in 24.3% of my simulations.

I have Minnesota as a favorite in 10 games, however, the Vikings likely to be favored by more than a field goal in four of those contests.

The Vikings should finish with either an 8-9 or 9-8 record this season, which while not as bad as the Lions or Bears, is not good enough to win the division or even make the playoffs.

NFC North Winner Prediction

No Lean

To use a football pun, you should probably punt on betting NFC North divisional futures.

Based on my numbers, the Lions and Bears don’t have long enough odds to merit a bet as underdogs. The Packers and Vikings provide better value, but their odds are too close to the breakeven price of my projections to merit tying my money up for months.

With Green Bay and Minnesota providing the best value to win the division, bettors that insist on making a bet should choose between those two teams.

For the Vikings to win the North, they need the Packers to underachieve. If the Packers produce another strong season, they are likely to repeat. However, the payout does not justify a wager at this price.

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