AFC West Division Winner Odds 2022 | NFL Division Win Futures & Betting Picks

Posted: Jun 30, 2022Last updated: Jun 30, 2022

For the last six seasons, the Kansas City Chiefs have ruled the AFC West. This season, the Chiefs are favored to win the division once again.

However, this division has quickly become a lot more competitive. The Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos have nearly equal odds of winning the West while the Las Vegas Raiders could easily have a winning record this year and miss the playoffs.

The AFC West is going to be the most exciting division in the NFL.

Read below, to find out the result of my simulations and to look at each team’s schedule with win probabilities and projected spreads for each game.

Note: These AFC West futures bet odds are courtesy of Betway Sportsbook and current as of Thursday, June 30, at 12 p.m. ET. Be careful, as many of these NFL odds might shift as we get closer to the 2022 NFL season.

AFC West Winner Betting Odds

  • Kansas City Chiefs (+175)
  • Los Angeles Chargers (+220)
  • Denver Broncos (+260)
  • Las Vegas Raiders (+650)

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AFC West Division Simulation

AFC WestProjected WinsProjected LossesDivision Winner %Division Winner Breakeven Odds
Kansas City Chiefs11.06.036.1%177
Los Angeles Chargers11.06.029.2%242
Denver Broncos9.87.223.9%318
Las Vegas Raiders9.08.010.8%826

Broncos Schedule & Win Probabilities

WeekOpponentProjected SpreadProjected Win %
1@ Seahawks-775.2%
4@ Raiders+148.8%
6@ Chargers+434.2%
8@ Jaguars (London)-775.2%
10@ TitansPICK50.0%
12@ Panthers-6.572.4%
13@ Ravens+246.5%
16@ Rams+531.9%
17@ Chiefs+5.531.1%

The Broncos have finished last in the division each of the past two seasons. The last time they won the division was in 2015 when they went on to win the Super Bowl in Peyton Manning’s final season.

Denver is expected to improve greatly this season, as it acquired quarterback Russell Wilson during the offseason. Last season in Seattle, Wilson had the 10th best QBR in the NFL, but only ranked 19th in EPA. In 2020, Wilson had the was fourth in that statistic and eighth in QBR.

If Wilson can return to his 2020 form, the Broncos should have a winning record this season. If not, then it is going to be another long year for Denver.

One thing to keep in mind for the Broncos is that they are expected to be favored in only one of their final six games in 2022. They play the Chiefs twice, Cardinals, Ravens, Rams, and Chargers to end the season.

Denver could easily get off to a hot start with wins against the Seahawks, Texans, and 49ers, but I am skeptical of them against the tougher opponents that they will face to finish the campaign.

Chargers Schedule & Win Probabilities

WeekOpponentProjected SpreadProjected Win%
2@ Chiefs+3.535.7%
4@ Texans-11.588.2%
5@ Browns-3.564.3%
9@ Falcons-1187.1%
10@ 49ers-465.8%
12@ CardinalsPICK50.0%
13@ Raiders-151.3%
16@ ColtsPICK50.0%
18@ BroncosPICK50.0%

Their team abbreviation may be LAC, but the Los Angeles Chargers are not lacking in talent. Not only is quarterback Justin Herbert poised for another big year, but the Chargers bolstered their offensive and defensive lines this offseason.

LA starts off the season with an easy schedule as I have them favored in eight of their first nine games. This includes being almost two-touchdown favorites against the Jaguars, Texans, Seahawks, and Falcons.

Unfortunately, in their final eight games, the Chargers are clear favorites in only two of them. It is going to be a tough slog for LA this season, but if they get off to a hot start, they might be able to win their first division title since 2009.

Chiefs Schedule & Win Probabilities

WeekOpponentProjected SpreadProjected Win %
1@ Cardinals-1.552.5%
3@ Colts-1.552.5%
4@ Buccaneers+2.545.5%
7@ 49ers-5.569.0%
11@ Chargers+0.550.0%
13@ Bengals-359.4%
14@ Broncos-1.552.5%
15@ Texans-1389.3%
18@ Raiders-2.554.5%

Unless you have been living under a rock, you know that the Chiefs have been one of the best teams in the NFL in recent years. They won Super Bowl 54 and have been to four straight AFC Championship Games, losing most recently to the Bengals last season.

Kansas City is led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who has ranked in the top five in EPA amongst NFL quarterbacks in each of the last three seasons.

Even though the Chiefs play a tough schedule, I project them to be underdogs of a point or more in just one game this season. Two other games — Week 6 vs Bills and Week 11 @ Chargers — are essentially toss-ups. Outside of those three contests, there are 10 other instances where KC will be favored by less than a touchdown.

The Chiefs have a strong team, but a tough schedule. If they remain dominant, then they should win the division again in 2022.

Raiders Schedule & Win Probabilities

WeekOpponentProjected SpreadProjected Win %
1@ Chargers+531.9%
3@ Titans+148.8%
5@ Chiefs+6.527.7%
8@ Saints-0.550.0%
9@ Jaguars-670.7%
11@ Broncos+340.6%
12@ Seahawks-670.7%
14@ Rams+629.4%
16@ Steelers-4.567.3%

Of all the teams that I project to finish last in their division this season, the Raiders are the only one I expect to have a winning record.

Las Vegas has wide range of outcomes for this season. They could finish with a good record and compete for the division, they could wind up close to .500, or they could have one of the worst records in the NFL.

I currently project the Raiders to be favored in 10 games this season, however, they are only projected as favorites of more than a touchdown once (Week 7 against the Texans). In fact, nine of their games are expected to be decided by a field goal or less.

It’s going to be an interesting season for Las Vegas, but I don’t think they can hang with the Broncos, Chargers, and Chiefs.

AFC West Winner Prediction

Chiefs (+175) at BetWay

Not only do the oddsmakers view the AFC West as a competitive division this season, but I view it that way as well. The Raiders and Broncos are slightly overvalued, but the Chargers and Chiefs are priced close to their breakeven odds.

Even though I have Kansas City’s breakeven price at (+177), I am betting on them to win the division this year. At (+175) it’s worth putting a few pizza dollars on the Chiefs based on their track record.

Mahomes and the Chiefs are always dominant, and if they get off to a hot start this season, then their odds will likely drop. This will even be the case if the Chargers get off to a hot start as well.


Kevin Davis

Kevin Davis is a Betting Analyst at The Game Day residing in Hoboken, NJ. Previously a Bronx resident, Kevin got his start betting on sports at his local Bronx barbershop. When sports betting was legalized across the river in Jersey, Kevin was there on the ground floor making regular trips to the Hoboken PATH station or for soup dumplings in Fort Lee. Previously, Kevin has written for The Action Network, and Vegas Insider.

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