The AFC West was expected to be the toughest division in the NFL heading into the 2022 season, but the Denver Broncos were a massive disappointment, the Los Angeles Chargers dealt with injuries, and the Las Vegas Raiders fell short of expectations.
We should see improvement from this division in 2023, but the question becomes, can any of these teams challenge the Kansas City Chiefs for the AFC West crown?
Let’s dig into the latest AFC West winner odds to make a prediction and pick out our favorite sleeper bet.
AFC West Winner Betting Odds 2023
Note: These AFC West betting odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Friday, March 17, at 2 p.m. ET. Be careful, as many of these NFL odds may shift as we get closer to the 2023 NFL season.
- Kansas City Chiefs (-130)
- Los Angeles Chargers (+350)
- Denver Broncos (+350)
- Las Vegas Raiders (+1300)
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The AFC West is headlined by the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs, who will remain front-runners as long as Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are in the fold.
The market is bullish on the Broncos following the trade for head coach Sean Payton. They’re projected to duke it out with the Chargers for second place in the division. Los Angeles should see better results with a healthier Justin Herbert, who played through injuries last year.
The Las Vegas Raiders are the clear-cut worst team in the division. Replacing Derek Carr with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback feels like a lateral move. While they added Jakobi Meyers, they traded away Darren Waller. This is like reshuffling the chairs on the Titanic.
AFC West Winner Best Bet
Kansas City Chiefs (-130) | DraftKings Sportsbook
The Chiefs remain the best bet in the division because they still have reasonable odds. They already lost JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman will also soon depart in free agency, but Mahomes has been able to make it work with an average group of pass-catchers.
Kansas City replaced tackle Orlando Brown Jr. by signing Jawaan Taylor, who is moving to the blindside after playing right tackle with Jacksonville. Taylor is an improving pass-blocker, so he’s a smart signing by the Chiefs.
We can expect them to continue to improve the team through the NFL Draft as well. The worst-case scenario feels like second place in the division. That’s what happens when you have a starting quarterback who is on track to be one of the best of all-time.
AFC West Winner Sleeper Pick
Los Angeles Chargers (+350) | DraftKings Sportsbook
The Chargers remain a threat to the Chiefs’ throne because Herbert is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. We saw suppressed production from him last season because he was dealing with a myriad of injuries. Look for him to get back on track in 2023.
It will also help if the team can add some speed at wide receiver. While Keenan Allen and Mike Williams form a nice duo, it would help if they had a player who could take the top off an opposing defense. I expect Los Angeles to address this need through the draft.
The defense remains stacked with playmakers like Joey Bosa and Derwin James, so they have the potential to become one of the best units in the NFL. While Denver will be better this year, I prefer rolling with the Chargers due to their superior quarterback and more well-rounded roster.
AFC West Winner By Year
| Year | AFC West Winner | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Denver Broncos | 13-3 |
| 2014 | Denver Broncos | 12-4 |
| 2015 | Denver Broncos | 12-4 |
| 2016 | Kansas City Chiefs | 12-4 |
| 2017 | Kansas City Chiefs | 10-6 |
| 2018 | Kansas City Chiefs | 12-4 |
| 2019 | Kansas City Chiefs | 12-4 |
| 2020 | Kansas City Chiefs | 14-2 |
| 2021 | Kansas City Chiefs | 12-5 |
| 2022 | Kansas City Chiefs | 14-3 |
