The AFC South saw a changing of the guard in 2022 as Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars surged down the stretch to overtake the Tennessee Titans and win their first division title in five years.
With the Titans, Colts, and Texans all potentially starting the 2023 season with new quarterbacks, the Jaguars are well-positioned to retain their spot atop the South.
Let’s dig into the latest AFC South winner odds to make a prediction and pick out our favorite sleeper bet.
AFC South Winner Betting Odds 2023
Note: These AFC South betting odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Monday, March 20, at 10:15 a.m. ET. Be careful, as many of these NFL odds may shift as we get closer to the 2023 NFL season.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (-160)
- Tennessee Titans (+330)
- Indianapolis Colts (+550)
- Houston Texans (+1000)
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As expected, the Jaguars are overwhelming favorites to win the AFC South. Jacksonville’s offense, which finished the 2022 season 10th league-wide in both points per game (23.8) and yards per game (357.4), is leaps and bounds ahead of its division rivals and is set to add Calvin Ridley to the mix.
Meanwhile, there is plenty of uncertainty still surrounding the Titans, who lost their final seven games of last season to finish 7-10. Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry have been discussed as offseason trade candidates, while veteran mainstays like Taylor Lewan, Ben Jones, and Zach Cunningham were released to help Tennessee get under the cap. This team will look very different by Week 1.
The Colts are also in the midst of a remodeling, with former Eagles OC Shane Steichen taking over as head coach. Indianapolis has an elite running back in Jonathan Taylor, but is once again searching for a new quarterback this offseason after parting ways with Matt Ryan.
Houston will also debut a new head coach-quarterback combination in 2023, with former linebacker and 49ers DC DeMeco Ryans taking over the Texans on a six-year contract. Armed with the No. 2 overall pick in the NFL Draft, the Texans are expected to take a quarterback to replace Davis Mills.
AFC South Winner Best Bet
Jacksonville Jaguars (-160) | DraftKings Sportsbook
While the departures of right tackle Jawaan Taylor (Chiefs) and linebacker Arden Key (Titans) could significantly deter Jacksonville’s attempts to progress past the AFC Divisional Round in 2023, they should have little trouble repeating as AFC South champions.
Lawrence showed significant progress in Year 2 under head coach Doug Pederson and should continue to elevate his play with Ridley joining an offense that already features Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram.
Pass defense is one area that certainly needs improvement — Jacksonville ranked 30th in pass defense DVOA last season, per Football Outsiders — but that will likely prove to be more of an issue against the AFC’s elite than it will be against the rest of the division.
AFC South Winner Sleeper Pick
Indianapolis Colts (+550) | DraftKings Sportsbook
After a 4-12-1 season, it’s easy to forget that the Colts were favored to win the AFC South last offseason.
The Matt Ryan experiment was a complete failure, but key injuries also played their part. Standout linebacker Shaquille Leonard played just three games. Jonathon Taylor missed six. Top corner Kenny Moore II sat out five.
With a new head coach and the No. 4 overall pick in tow, Indianapolis has a chance to turn things around quickly. Taylor and a talented offensive line give this team a platform to succeed with either Gardner Minshew or a top quarterback in the incoming rookie class.
Overtaking the Jaguars won’t be easy, but I think the Colts have the most upside of any other team in the division.
AFC South Winner By Year
| Year | AFC South Winner | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Indianapolis Colts | 11-5 |
| 2014 | Indianapolis Colts | 11-5 |
| 2015 | Houston Texans | 9-7 |
| 2016 | Houston Texans | 9-7 |
| 2017 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 10-6 |
| 2018 | Houston Texans | 11-5 |
| 2019 | Houston Texans | 10-6 |
| 2020 | Tennessee Titans | 11-5 |
| 2021 | Tennessee Titans | 12-5 |
| 2022 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 9-8 |
