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AFC South Division Winner Odds 2022 | NFL Division Win Futures & Betting Picks

Posted: Jun 29, 2022Last updated: Jun 29, 2022

There are two tiers in the AFC South. In tier one, you have the Colts and Titans. The Jaguars and Texans reside in tier two and are among the conference’s bottom dwellers.

Last year, the Titans won the division with a 12-5 record. The Colts finished second at 9-8. You wouldn’t know it from looking at the standings, but these two teams were pretty evenly matched last season.

The Titans won their games by an average of 3.4 points, while the Colts won by an average of 5.1 points. Tennessee should regress this season, but will that be enough for Indianapolis to reclaim the South as narrow divisional favorites?

Read below, to find out the result of my simulations and to look at each team’s schedule with win probabilities and projected spreads for each game.

Note: These AFC South futures bet odds are courtesy of BetRivers Sportsbook and current as of Wednesday, June 29, at 4 p.m. ET. Be careful, as many of these NFL odds might shift as we get closer to the 2022 NFL season.

AFC South Winner Betting Odds

  • Indianapolis Colts (-115)
  • Tennessee Titans (+160)
  • Jacksonville Jaguars (+700)
  • Houston Texans (+2500)

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AFC South Division Simulation

AFC SouthProjected WinsProjected LossesDivision Winner %Division Winner Breakeven Odds
Indianapolis Colts10.76.362.6%-167
Tennessee Titans8.68.429.6%238
Jacksonville Jaguars5.012.06.2%1513
Houston Texans3.713.36.0%1567

Colts Schedule & Win Probabilities

WeekOpponentProjected SpreadProjected Win %
1@ Texans-9.581.1%
2@ Jaguars-775.2%
3Chiefs1.547.5%
4Titans-465.8%
5@ Broncos+246.5%
6Jaguars-1187.1%
7@ TitansPICK50.0%
8Commanders-775.2%
9@ Patriots+0.550.0%
10@ Raiders+148.8%
11Eagles-4.567.3%
12Steelers-9.581.1%
13@ Cowboys+434.2%
15@ Vikings+148.8%
16ChargersPICK50.0%
17@ Giants-4.567.3%
18Texans-13.590.0%

Not only did the Colts win their games by more points than the Titans last season, but their chances this season have been enhanced by a new quarterback. Over the offseason, the Colts executed a trade with the Falcons to acquire veteran QB Matt Ryan.

Ryan is replacing Carson Wentz, and it is debatable as to which QB is better. In 2021, Wentz had a higher EPA and QBR than Ryan. In 2020, Wentz had one of the worst EPAs in the NFL, while Ryan ranked 11th in the category.

The Colts due for positive regression this season, and if Matt Ryan pulls a Cher and turns back time, then they should win the division.

Jaguars Schedule & Win Probabilities

WeekOpponentProjected SpreadProjected Win %
1@ Commanders+629.4%
2Colts+724.8%
3@ Chargers+1310.7%
4@ Eagles+919.3%
5Texans-4.567.3%
6@ Colts+1112.9%
7Giants+0.550.0%
8Broncos (London)+724.8%
9Raiders+629.4%
10@ Chiefs+14.55.1%
12Ravens+724.8%
13@ Lions+434.2%
14@ Titans+919.3%
15Cowboys+9.518.9%
16@ Jets-0.550.0%
17@ Texans-0.550.0%
18Titans+531.9%

The Jacksonville Jaguars finished with the worst record in the NFL in each of the last two season. For the upcoming 2022 campaign, I project the Jaguars to finish 5-12. Shockingly, this is an improvement from last year.

Jacksonville has a promising quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, but little should be expected in his sophomore season.

I only project the Jaguars to be favored by more than a field goal in one game this year — a Week 5 home matchup against the Texans — and three other games are toss-ups. What’s stopping Jacksonville from having a winning season is that they have a 25% chance or worse of winning in most of their games.

For the Jaguars to be competitive this year, they need to exceed expectations.

Texans Schedule & Win Probabilities

WeekOpponentProjected SpreadProjected Win %
1Colts+9.518.9%
2@ Broncos+13.510.0%
3@ Bears+246.5%
4Chargers+11.511.8%
5@ Jaguars+4.532.7%
7@ Raiders+12.511.3%
8Titans+7.521.9%
9Eagles+724.8%
10@ Giants+724.8%
11Commanders+4.532.7%
12@ Dolphins+1016.4%
13Browns+629.4%
14@ Cowboys+15.53.7%
15Chiefs+1310.7%
16@ Titans+11.511.8%
17Jaguars+0.550.0%
18@ Colts+13.510.0%

If a Jaguars fan argues that they are the worst in the AFC South, a Texans fan will counter by asking that Jaguars fan to hold their beer.

I project Houston to win between three and four games this season and do not have them favored in a single game. In only two games this season, do I have the Texans as an underdog of less than a field goal (Week 3 @ Bears & Week 17 vs Jaguars).

In about half of their games, the Texans should be double-digit underdogs.

Houston is a rebuilding franchise, so I wouldn’t even be shocked if they finished with a winless record in 2022.

Titans Schedule & Win Probabilities

WeekOpponentProjected SpreadProjected Win %
1Giants-6.572.4%
2@ Bills+9.518.9%
3Raiders-151.3%
4@ Colts+434.2%
5@ Commanders-151.3%
7ColtsPICK50.0%
8@ Texans-7.578.1%
9@ Chiefs7.521.9%
10BroncosPICK50.0%
11@ Packers+7.521.9%
12Bengals-1.552.5%
13@ Eagles+1.547.5%
14Jaguars-980.7%
15@ Chargers+629.4%
16Texans-11.588.2%
17Cowboys+246.5%
18@ Jaguars-568.1%

There is only one team that can take on the Colts in the AFC South, and that would be the Titans. After their 12-5 season last year, bettors must remember the Titans.

This year’s Titans team not only appears due for regression but also appears to be weaker. Their key defensive players are returning but several key offensive players are gone, including star wideout A.J. Brown.

With a weaker offense and the Colts improving at quarterback, we are likely to see a neck-and-neck battle for the AFC South title in 2022.

AFC South Winner Prediction

Colts (-115) at BetRivers

The Colts won the AFC South in 62.6% of my 25,000 simulations. With a price of (-115) to win the division, the Colts are the best bet to make.

Even though the Titans were dominant last year, I only project them to finish close to .500 this season. I project the Colts to finish with a 10.7-6.3 record, which is worse than any other NFL division champion, but they benefit from playing the Jaguars and Texans twice.

Additionally, the last game the Colts play during the regular season is at home against the Texans. If the Indianapolis has a lead in the division by Week 18, then hell would have to freeze over for them to lose their grasp on the division. I would bet the Colts up to (-140) to win the division.

Author

Kevin Davis

Kevin Davis is a Betting Analyst at The Game Day residing in Hoboken, NJ. Previously a Bronx resident, Kevin got his start betting on sports at his local Bronx barbershop. When sports betting was legalized across the river in Jersey, Kevin was there on the ground floor making regular trips to the Hoboken PATH station or for soup dumplings in Fort Lee. Previously, Kevin has written for The Action Network, and Vegas Insider.

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