The AFC South saw a changing of the guard in 2022 as Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars surged down the stretch to overtake the Tennessee Titans and win their first division title in five years.
The Colts and Texans will be starting rookie quarterbacks in Anthony Richardson and C.J. Stroud, with the outside chance that Will Levis replaces Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee at some point. This makes Jacksonville the clear favorite here, but could there be a chance to find some value?
Let’s dig into the latest AFC South winner odds to make a prediction and pick out our favorite sleeper bet.
AFC South Winner Betting Odds 2023
Note: These AFC South betting odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Thursday, June 29, at 1 p.m. ET. Be careful, as many of these NFL odds may shift as we get closer to the 2023 NFL season.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (-165)
- Tennessee Titans (+425)
- Indianapolis Colts (+550)
- Houston Texans (+800)
Keep track of pro football futures this offseason with our NFL futures odds comparison tool:
As expected, the Jaguars are heavy favorites to win the AFC South. Trevor Lawrence is projected to take a leap following the addition of stud wideout Calvin Ridley.
Jacksonville’s significant advantage under center puts them firmly in the pole position in this division.
The Titans look like a team that is trending downward despite their efforts to remain competitive. Their offensive line projects to be among the worst in the NFL, which could make life difficult for Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, and Treylon Burks.
The Colts are intriguing because Anthony Richardson is a perfect fit with new head coach Shane Steichen, who worked with Jalen Hurts as the Eagles’ offensive coordinator. Indianapolis could be a pesky underdog behind an elite running game centered around Richardson and Jonathan Taylor.
The Texans are another interesting team with new head coach DeMeco Ryans potentially improving the defense and new offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik implementing a Kyle Shanahan-style scheme on offense. If C.J. Stroud can exceed expectations, there’s some upside here.
AFC South Winner Best Bet
Indianapolis Colts (+550) | DraftKings Sportsbook
I never like to lay juice on a futures bet, especially something as expensive as -165 odds on the Jaguars to win the AFC South. For that reason, I’m targeting the Colts due to their upgrades at head coach and quarterback.
This running game has the potential to be the best in the NFL. We saw how the Eagles used Hurts as a weapon in the red zone.
Can you imagine what Steichen has planned for the 6-foot-4, 244-pound Richardson? This team is going to be lethal when it gets between the 20s.
While the Colts come in 17th in our offensive line rankings, they still have talented pieces like Quentin Nelson. Perhaps we’ll see some improvement in a new scheme under Steichen.
While the defense needs some work, there’s a good chance that the elite running game will ease the pressure off this unit, since the Colts can control time of possession.
This wager hinges on Richardson, who has a wide range of outcomes as a raw but supremely athletic prospect. At +550 odds, I’ll take a shot that the Colts can win the AFC South.
AFC South Winner Sleeper Pick
Houston Texans (+800) | DraftKings Sportsbook
Not only have the Texans upgraded their coaching staff and quarterback but there are other improvements throughout their roster.
Houston’s pass-catchers look much better with Robert Woods (another year removed from a torn ACL) and Dalton Schultz joining breakout candidate Nico Collins. Let’s not forget that red-shirt rookie John Metchie is ready to contribute, along with rookies Nathaniel Dell and Xavier Hutchinson.
This Shanahan-style offense should yield high efficiency on the ground, putting Dameon Pierce and newcomer Devin Singletary in a great spot. The Texans’ running game could be dangerous.
Then you look at the defense, which ranks 24th in our defensive power rankings, where Ryans should bring out the best in his players as one of the top defensive coaches in the NFL. Houston brought in Jimmie Ward to stabilize the secondary and shored up their run defense with tackle Sheldon Rankins.
Let’s not forget third-overall pick Will Anderson Jr., who can bring pressure off the edge. If former first-round cornerback Derek Stingley can take the next step, this defense can be significantly improved.
At +800 odds, there’s enough value to sprinkle on the Texans.
AFC South Winner By Year
| Year | AFC South Winner | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Indianapolis Colts | 11-5 |
| 2014 | Indianapolis Colts | 11-5 |
| 2015 | Houston Texans | 9-7 |
| 2016 | Houston Texans | 9-7 |
| 2017 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 10-6 |
| 2018 | Houston Texans | 11-5 |
| 2019 | Houston Texans | 10-6 |
| 2020 | Tennessee Titans | 11-5 |
| 2021 | Tennessee Titans | 12-5 |
| 2022 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 9-8 |
