The quest for the Triple Crown begins with the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 2.
The 2026 Kentucky Derby will see 20 horses and jockeys race on the 1.25-mile track at Churchill Downs, with post time scheduled for 6:57 p.m. ET.
To prepare you for the most exciting two minutes in sports, let’s look at the odds and post positions before digging into my Kentucky Derby predictions.
Kentucky Derby Best Odds To Win & Position Draws
Horse racing lines were provided by FanDuel Racing and are current as of Friday, May 1.
- Renegade, 5-1
- Albus, 50-1
- Intrepido, 52-1
- Litmus Test, 33-1
Right to Party, 30-1 (Scratched)- Commandment, 7-1
- Danon Bourbon, 15-1
- So Happy, 6-1
- The Puma, 9-1
- Wonder Dean, 21-1
- Incredibolt, 26-1
- Chief Wallabee, 8-1
Silent Tactic, 20-1 (Scratched)- Potente, 22-1
- Emerging Market, 10-1
- Pavlovian, 48-1
- Six Speed, 34-1
- Further Ado, 7-1
- Golden Tempo, 33-1
Fulleffort, 20-1 (Scratched)- Great White, 28-1
- Ocelli, 99-1
- Robusta, 99-1
Corona De Oro, 50-1 (Scratched)
Scratched from the Kentucky Derby
As of 1:45 p.m. on Friday, May 1, these horses have been scratched from the Triple Crown race at Churchill Downs on Saturday:
- 5 Right to Party
- 13 Silent Tactic
- 20 Fulleffort
- 24 Corona De Oro
When is the 2026 Kentucky Derby?
The 2026 Kentucky Derby is on Saturday, May 2, and as it is every year, it will be held at Churchill Downs in Lexington, KY.
This year marks the 152nd running of the most famous horse race in the world.
Post time for the 2026 Kentucky Derby is 6:57 p.m. ET. The race will be broadcast on NBC and available to stream on the Peacock app.
Kentucky Derby Prediction to Win/Place/Show
No. 6 Commandment to Win (7-1)
Commandment comes into the Kentucky Derby as the leading qualification point earner, having won all three of his races in 2026, including the Florida Derby.
That race has been a useful predictor in previous years, as 15 past Florida Derby winners have gone on to claim the Run for the Roses.
- See our recommendations for the best Kentucky Derby betting sites.
Additionally, Commandment won a seven-furlong race at Churchill Downs in November.
While this field will be twice the size and more competitive, Commandment has proven the ability to win on this track, so I’m backing him to win the Kentucky Derby with my horse racing pick of the day.
No. 7 Danon Bourbon to Place (17-2)
Danon Bourbon has won all three of his career races, albeit against lesser opposition in Japan.
Still, Japanese-based horses have made some noise in the Kentucky Derby in recent years, with Forever Young finishing third in 2024.
I could see Danon Bourbon making a similar run, especially with post positioning so close to Commandment.
No. 1 Renegade to Show (5-2)
Renegade is the betting favorite to win the 2026 Kentucky Derby, but he could have to navigate some traffic to get to the finish line first.
Starting on the inside rail in post position No. 1 has often led to horses getting boxed in early on. Ferdinand was the last horse to win the Kentucky Derby from that position, doing so in 1987.
With that in mind, I think a third-place finish is more likely for the Derby favorite.
Kentucky Derby Longshot Pick
No. 14 Potente (22-1)
If you’re looking for a longshot Kentucky Derby pick, Potente is one to keep in mind.
Potente is under the supervision of legendary trainer Bob Baffert, who has guided six horses to Kentucky Derby wins.
Potente is also the most expensive horse in this race, having sold for $2.4 million in 2024.
His sire, Into Mischief, has fathered three Kentucky Derby winners (Authentic, Mandaloun, and Sovereignty) and could well gain a fourth this year, with Potente, Renegade, and Commandment in the running.
While the latter two are among the favorites, Potente offers longer odds for a similar pedigree.
Past Kentucky Derby Winners
2025: Sovereignty
2024: Mystik Dan
2023: Mage
2022: Rich Strike
2021: Mandaloun
2020: Authentic
2019: Country House
2018: Justify
2017: Always Dreaming
2016: Nyquist
Kentucky Derby Racing Notes & Churchill Downs Tips
Before we get into some more specific tips, let’s quickly go over some of the basics of horse betting.
Odds in the Kentucky Derby work the same way as with other horse races in the United States: they are pari-mutuel odds. This means that the odds are based on how the public is wagering. If bettors on the whole put more money on a horse, that horse is a favorite and the odds are lower. If bettors put less money on a horse, that horse is a long shot, and the odds will be higher.
When the Kentucky Derby is drawn, Churchill Downs will release a morning line that is essentially an estimate, not a guarantee, of what the odds will be on race day. Betting will then open at 9:00 a.m. ET on the day before the race.
The odds will fluctuate on Saturday and Sunday based on the wagers coming in, and the final odds will be determined by how much has been bet on each horse once the gates fling open.
Be Mindful of the Weather
I cannot say this enough. In a race this big, you must keep an eye on the radar.
From horses that like running in the mud to the heat, the Derby can produce a wide variety of days. So far, however, this Derby looks clean. At the moment, they’re calling for sun and 70s.
Put the Pieces Together
This, more than anything, helps me handicap a race. It’s not just about a particular horse; it’s how that horse fits into a much larger picture against other horses.
How many of them will attempt to get the lead? How many will sit back off the pace and attempt to close? Where are those horses situated relative to post positions? It’s a puzzle, and solving it is both hard and a great deal of fun.
Beware the Post Positions
Where a horse starts is crucial to the race, and a few notable keys come to mind. The 1-post position, as mentioned, has been historically awful in terms of results, while horses on the outside (Post 15 and beyond) can also have a difficult time in this race.
It’s simple, really. A bad post position will force a horse out of its comfort zone. As such, it looms large when it comes to running styles and overall talent.
