We’re now entering the XFL’s 2023 stretch run, an exciting time of the season that sees five teams with records of .500 or better. We have a three-day slate in Week 7 that features a particularly intriguing St. Louis Battlehawks vs Houston Roughnecks showdown in Houston.
As usual, we’ll break down one wager for each game, with a particularly large underdog catching our eye as one of our suggested bets. Without further ado, let’s dive into our Week 7 XFL predictions and best bets.
XFL Week 7 Pick of the Day
Read more about this top XFL betting pick below.
Note: XFL lines used for these Week 7 tips are current as of Wednesday, March 29, at 4 p.m. ET and were found at DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
San Antonio Brahmas vs Vegas Vipers Odds & Best Bet
- Moneyline: Vipers (-145) • Brahmas (+125)
- Spread: Vipers -3 (-105) • Brahmas +3 (-115)
- Over/Under: Over 39.5 points (-110) • Under 39.5 points (-110)
Brahmas +3 (-115) • DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Brahmas have struggled on offense all season and had to go with a tandem of Jawon Pass and Kurt Benkert at quarterback in Week 6. That was just enough, along with a big assist from the defense, to get past the equally offensively-challenged Renegades.
It’s uncertain as of this writing exactly who’ll get the call under center in Week 7, as Jack Coan (ankle) could also be ready to return. Whoever’s helming the offense will have the advantage of facing a highly porous Vipers defense, however — Vegas is allowing a league-high 359.8 total yards per contest.
The Vipers also have some upheaval at the quarterback position now that Luis Perez, who entered Week 6 as the starter, has been traded to Arlington. Brett Hundley is certainly a capable field general at the XFL level but will have his hands full against a San Antonio defense that’s given up only 179.8 passing yards per contest.
The combination of Vegas’ defensive weaknesses and the Brahmas’ capabilities on that side of the ball point me in the direction of the visitors sliding in under the number, at minimum, in our XFL pick of the week.
Seattle Sea Dragons vs Arlington Renegades Odds & Best Bet
- Moneyline: Sea Dragons (-195) • Renegades (+165)
- Spread: Sea Dragons -4.5 (-110) • Renegades +4.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 37.5 points (-110) • Under 37.5 points (-110)
Under 37.5 points (-110) • DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Sea Dragons toughed out their fourth straight win in Week 6 over the Guardians. Although Orlando gave Seattle quite the test and the final margin of victory was only seven points, the Sea Dragons’ defense continued to perform effectively.
Seattle is allowing the third-fewest points per game (17.8) and only 271.8 total yards per contest as well. The Dragons also have 13 sacks and six forced fumbles and now face a Renegades offense, which has just six total touchdowns this season, in transition — Luis Perez could be making his first appearance with the team with limited working knowledge of the playbook.
The matchup isn’t exactly palatable on the other side, either. Arlington’s defense has allowed only 16.8 points per game and a league-low 240.2 total yards per contest. The Renegades have 12 sacks, seven interceptions and six fumble recoveries.
This is a matchup of two good defenses and also features one especially inefficient offense. As such, taking the Under seems like a prudent path.
DC Defenders vs Orlando Guardians Odds & Best Bet
- Moneyline: Defenders (-435) • Guardians (+350)
- Spread: Defenders -9.5 (-120) • Guardians +9.5 (+100)
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 points (-110) • Under 45.5 points (-110)
Guardians +9.5 (+100) • DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Guardians may be easy to underestimate on the surface considering they’re the league’s only remaining winless squad. Yet, Orlando has plenty of offensive weapons and has played very competitively in the last pair of contests in particular.
Quentin Dormady may be the answer at quarterback, while the likes of Devin Darrington, Charleston Rambo and Cody Latimer are among the explosive components he has to work with. The defense has sprung some leaks against the pass but played very tough against a deep Sea Dragons receiving corps.
Then, Orlando has been tough to run against, allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards per contest (84.5). That could put a bit of a crimp in the Defenders’ preferred method of attack — DC has run for a league-high 164.3 yards per game.
There’s no questioning the Defenders’ fearsome defense and Jordan Ta’amu‘s increasingly effective work at quarterback while working with the likes of Abram Smith and Lucky Jackson. That combination has led to DC unsurprisingly sitting comfortably atop the XFL Champion Odds leaderboard.
Nevertheless, the Guardians are desperate for a victory and have to be gaining confidence. As with last week, I’ll back Terrell Buckley‘s squad to cover an especially large spread.
St. Louis Battlehawks vs Houston Roughnecks Odds & Best Bet
- Moneyline: Roughnecks (-150) • Battlehawks (+130)
- Spread: Roughnecks -3 (-110) • Battlehawks +3 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 points (-125) • Under 43.5 points (+105)
Over 43.5 points (-125) • DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
It may be hard to find a better example of a player whose NFL opportunity was mostly blocked but is now thriving with a starting job at the XFL level than A.J. McCarron. The Battlehawks signal-caller has been quite a revelation with a 14:4 TD:INT alongside 1,322 passing yards, 85 rushing yards and a score on the ground.
A pass-catching arsenal that’s headed up by the talented trio of Hakeem Butler, Darrius Shepherd, and Austin Proehl — and that can even include versatile running back Brian Hill — is keeping St. Louis’ offense humming most weeks. And, with all those players except Proehl boasting some NFL regular-season experience, the unit as a whole seems to look more cohesive as the season unfolds.
The Roughnecks present quite the challenge with their ability to disrupt offenses via a ferocious pass rush and opportunistic secondary. However, the Battlehawks may boast the most balanced offense in the league, averaging 23.2 points per contest while putting up 91 rushing yards and 203.3 passing yards per game.
On the other side, Houston may turn to Cole McDonald under center after the Hawaii alum was highly impressive in relief of a struggling Brandon Silvers in Week 6. McDonald is both an accomplished passer and highly mobile, which, when combined with a supporting cast that includes Max Borghi, Deontay Burnett and Travell Harris, has the potential to put even a formidable defense like St. Louis’ on its heels.
There’s too much offensive talent on either sideline here for some points not to pile up — the Over appears to be the way to go in a game that could well be the most compelling of the slate.