The XFL’s first Week 6 since way back in 2001 unfolds with a four-game slate, which kicks off with a Saturday matinee between the Seattle Sea Dragons and Orlando Guardians.
The ledger extends all the way until Monday night, when what appears to be the league’s two best squads, the Houston Roughnecks and D.C. Defenders, tangle in the Nation’s Capital.
With half of the regular season behind us, we now have a fairly solid read on all eight of the league’s teams. Without further ado, let’s dive further into our Week 6 XFL predictions and best bets.
Note: XFL lines are current as of Thursday, March 23, at 1 p.m. ET at DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
XFL Week 6 Best Bet
Read more about this top XFL betting pick below.
Houston Roughnecks vs D.C. Defenders Odds & Best Bet
- Moneyline: Defenders (-145) • Roughnecks (+125)
- Spread: Defenders -2.5 (-110) • Roughnecks +2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 42 (-110) • Under 42 (-110)
Roughnecks +2.5 (-110) • DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Roughnecks finally suffered their first defeat in franchise history in Week 5 against the Sea Dragons. Just as big a loss was the season-ending shoulder injury to breakout wideout Jontre Kirklin.
However, Houston has plenty of formidable depth at the position — the likes of Deontay Burnett, Travell Harris, Cedric Byrd, and Justin Smith already have put impressive play on film to varying degrees this season. Not to mention, running back Max Borghi has functioned as a highly effective receiver out of the backfield.
The Defenders have a highly aggressive, disruptive defense. Yet, DC has also allowed an XFL-high 228.2 passing yards per contest.
Then, Houston’s own talented unit can certainly cause plenty of problems. Defenders signal-caller Jordan Ta’amu, while much improved since the start of the season, can certainly be goaded into drive-killing mistakes.
Even Defenders RB Abram Smith, he of the jaw-dropping 218-yard effort in Week 5, could find the sledding much tougher against a Roughnecks defense surrendering just 77.8 rushing yards per contest.
Given the factors cited, I like the Roughnecks to give the Defenders all they can handle in a matchup of XFL Champion Odds favorites and at minimum cover for our XFL pick of the week.
Seattle Sea Dragons vs Orlando Guardians Odds & Best Bet
- Moneyline: Sea Dragons (-390) • Guardians (+320)
- Spread: Sea Dragons -9.5 (-110) • Guardians +9.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 (-110) • Under 42.5 (-110)
Guardians +9.5 (-110) • DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Sea Dragons walk into this matchup as the largest favorite of the week and with their heads held high after knocking off the previously unbeaten Roughnecks in Week 5.
Seattle also has a two-day rest advantage on winless Orlando. Yet, the Guardians don’t head into this potentially lopsided battle without some momentum of their own.
Orlando came up three points short against the Vipers in Week 5, yet displayed some highly encouraging signs on offense behind the play of quarterback Quenten Dormady. The Central Michigan alum misfired on just three pass attempts while also tossing a pair of touchdown passes in the 35-32 loss.
He faces a tall order against a Sea Dragons defense allowing just 17.6 points per contest and a miserly 248 total yards per game. Yet, Dormady has plenty of weapons at his disposal including Cody Latimer, Charleston Rambo, Lance Lenoir, and Eli Rogers.
The Guardians’ defense is very likely going to give up a robust amount of points, but in front of the home crowd, I’m giving a more confident Orlando team a fighting chance at sliding Under what is a highly elevated number.
St. Louis Battlehawks vs Vegas Vipers Odds & Best Bet
- Moneyline: Battlehawks (-155) • Vipers (+135)
- Spread: Battlehawks -3 (-110) • Vipers +3 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 (-110) • Under 44.5 (-110)
Over 44.5 Total Points (-110) • DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Battlehawks check into Week 6 with their momentum dinged just a tad after falling to the undefeated Defenders by eight points in Week 5. Nevertheless, St. Louis has no shortage of firepower on offense beginning with A.J. McCarron under center.
The veteran has thrown for 1,086 yards and mustered an 11:4 TD:INT through five games. Meanwhile, Brian Hill is filling the role of lead back admirably with 385 total yards through four games.
Rounding out the Big Three is Hakeem Butler, who’s making a convincing case for a return to the NFL with a 30-336-4 line through five contests.
The Vipers’ defense is ill-equipped to slow down the talented crew, which also includes another pair of pass catchers with NFL experience in Darrius Shepherd and Steven Mitchell Jr. Vegas is allowing an XFL-high 142.8 rushing yards per contest and the second-most passing yards per game in the league (223.4).
However, Vegas isn’t without its own weapons. Luis Perez has been excellent under center over the last two games and wideout Jeff Badet (24-340-5) is playing like an MVP candidate.
Then, the backfield trio of Rod Smith, John Lovett, and DeAndre Torrey could potentially wreak havoc against a Battlehawks defense that was trampled by the Defenders’ Smith in Week 5.
Given the offensive capabilities and defensive deficiencies on either side, I’m firmly in the camp of the Over.
San Antonio Brahmas vs Arlington Renegades Odds & Best Bet
- Moneyline: Renegades (-155) • Brahmas (+135)
- Spread: Renegades -3 (-105) • Brahmas +3 (-115)
- Over/Under: Over 33 (-110) • Under 33 (-110)
Brahmas Moneyline (+135) • DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Brahmas aren’t the only 1-4 team in the league — the Vipers share that dubious distinction — but San Antonio certainly seems to have the defense of a contender.
Hines Ward‘s crew has allowed the second-fewest points per game (15.8) and fourth-fewest yards per contest (276). The Brahmas also have 12 sacks, four interceptions, and a league-leading 33 tackles for loss.
The Renegades squeaked by San Antonio at the Alamodome in Week 5, but managed just 12 points. Arlington is averaging a league-low 13.8 per contest for the season.
Renegades signal-callers have thrown for only three touchdowns while tossing six interceptions and the backfield is averaging an XFL-worst 71.6 rushing yards per contest.
San Antonio has too much talent to continue piling up losses, and Arlington’s over-reliance on its defense will eventually come back to bite it. I see this as the week both factors converge and result in a Brahmas upset.