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XFL Predictions & Best Bets Week 4

Last Updated: Mar 9, 2023

The XFL rolls into Week 4 with another all-weekend slate that is highlighted by Brahmas-Sea Dragons and Renegades-Battlehawks battles.

There remain two undefeated teams and two winless squads, so it will be intriguing to see whether those streaks persist into Week 5.

Without further ado, let’s dive into our Week 4 XFL predictions and best bets.

Note: XFL lines are current as of Thursday, March 9, at 9:30 a.m. ET at DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.

XFL Week 4 Best Bet

Read more about this top XFL betting pick below.

San Antonio Brahmas vs Seattle Sea Dragons Odds & Best Bet

  • Moneyline: Sea Dragons (-205) • Brahmas (+175)
  • Spread: Sea Dragons -4.5 (-115) • Brahmas +4.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under: Over 40.5 (-110) • Under 40.5 (-110)

Over 40.5 Total Points (-110) | DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

The Brahmas and Sea Dragons have arguably both been better than their respective 1-2 records suggest.

San Antonio’s two losses have come by a combined 12 points, and the first, a Week 1 defeat to the Battlehawks, saw St. Louis score two touchdowns in the final 1:25. Meanwhile, Seattle has come even closer to an undefeated mark. Their two stumbles have come by a total of six points.

Ben DiNucci and a talented group of pass catchers that includes Josh Gordon, Jahcour Pearson, and Blake Jackson have proven to be quite a formidable collection of assets and have the potential to keep Seattle competitive every week.

However, the Dragons defense does have some vulnerabilities that Brahmas quarterback Jack Coan and the offense have the potential to exploit. Considering both teams have the ability to put some points on the board, take the Over as your XFL pick of the day in what should be a highly competitive game.

Houston Roughnecks vs Orlando Guardians Odds & Best Bet

  • Moneyline: Roughnecks (-365) • Guardians (+300)
  • Spread: Roughnecks -8.5 (-115) • Guardians +8.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under: Over 37.5 (-105) • Under 37.5 (-115)

Under 37.5 Total Points (-115) | DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

The Roughnecks’ 3-0 record is a near-equal byproduct of its offense and defense. Brandon Silvers, Max Borghi, and Jontre Kirklin are doing a fine job spearheading the former, while Wade Phillips‘ aggressive scheme has helped the latter become the most dominant all-around unit in the XFL thus far.

Consequently, this game carries the largest spread of the slate, with Houston facing an Orlando squad it already throttled 33-12 in Week 2. The Guardians played their most competitive game of the season in Week 3 against the Renegades, but they mustered a season-low nine points in the process.

It’s therefore unlikely there’s much of a contribution from Orlando to the total, even if former USF standout Quinton Flowers makes his debut. Therefore, the Roughnecks could put together a typically strong offensive effort and the Under could still prevail.

Arlington Renegades vs St. Louis Battlehawks Odds & Best Bet

  • Moneyline: Battlehawks (-175) • Renegades (+150)
  • Spread: Battlehawks -4 (-110) • Renegades +4 (-110)
  • Over/Under: Over 36.5 (-110) • Under 36.5 (-110)

Battlehawks -4 (-110) | DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

The Renegades made the switch to Kyle Sloter at quarterback in Week 3 without much tangible improvement. Arlington mustered just 10 points and 178 total yards. Sloter threw for 124 of those yards, while the running game continued to struggle despite the swapping out the released Keith Ford for NFL/spring league veteran Kenneth Farrow.

Meanwhile, the Battlehawks’ A.J. McCarron continues to look more and more comfortable with each passing week. Although it ironically came in St. Louis’ first loss of the season, McCarron had his best performance yet with 262 passing yards and four touchdowns.

McCarron is demonstrating plenty of rapport with fellow NFL alum Hakeem Butler, and the running game has upside with the versatile Brian Hill and former Duke standout Mataeo Durant leading the way. McCarron’s experience significantly ups the chances the offense continues to trend in the right direction the more it plays together.

Factoring in the Renegades’ questionable offense and the fact the Battlehawks should enjoy a considerable home-field advantage in front what is expected to be the XFL’s biggest crowd of the season to date, I like the chances of a St. Louis cover.

Vegas Vipers vs D.C. Defenders Odds & Best Bet

  • Moneyline: Defenders (-245) • Vipers (+205)
  • Spread: Defenders -6 (-115) • Vipers +6 (-105)
  • Over/Under: Over 42 (-110) • Under 42 (-110)

Under 42 Total Points (-110) | DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

Thanks to another victory in Week 3, the Defenders have moved to the top of the mountain in the latest XFL winner odds. Reggie Barlow‘s crew is standing out with its aggressive defense, but quarterback Jordan Ta’amu, who has been prone to taking some sacks and throwing some picks, showed improvement last week.

Meanwhile, the 0-3 Vipers have to be increasingly frustrated after letting a golden opportunity for their first win slip through their fingers in a 30-26 Week 3 defeat to the Sea Dragons. That’s the second time in three weeks Vegas has lost a heartbreaker — they also fell to the Renegades 24-22 in Week 1.

The Vipers also played competitively in Week 2 against the Defenders and should see Brett Hundley, who has plenty of experience, perform more effectively with each passing week. However, the Defenders defense promises to make that task quite the uphill battle with its aggressive schemes.

The Vegas running game has also struggled to gain much traction despite being helmed by an NFL vet in Rod Smith. Plus, Hundley still hasn’t displayed much chemistry with Martavis Bryant or Geronimo Allison.

Consequently, the Under on an elevated total is a viable play here, as Vegas should also be able to force Ta’amu into some drive-killing mistakes.

Author

Juan Carlos Blanco

Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports since 1997 and actively writing about the fantasy sports and sports betting industries since 2015 for multiple websites. He has covered a wide variety of professional sports leagues, including the NFL, MLB, NBA, CFL, Arena Football League, Alliance of American Football, XFL, NPB and KBO. He was the recipient of the FSWA's 2016 Newcomer of the Year award for his work with RotoWire.

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