We have another loaded slate upcoming in NFL Week 9 featuring 13 games with six teams on a bye. Those teams are the Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers, and San Francisco 49ers.
While this slate only features two games where both teams involved have a winning record, there are some juicy matchups on the slate for football wagers. an perspective.
The two games that stick out the most are the Rams vs Buccaneers matchup and the Titans vs Chiefs matchup.
I am taking a beating this year with my NFL picks. However, accountability is everything and changes in my process needs to be made to turn things around.
Anthony Cervino’s 2022 NFL Best Bets Record: 18-28 (-13 Units)
*All NFL odds and lines are current as of 1 p.m. ET, on Tuesday, Nov. 1, at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Colts vs Patriots Best Bet
Patriots -5.5 (-110)
WAGER: 2 Units
The Patriots are playing better than I ever expected despite entering the year with immense question marks on offense. While the Patriots are a .500 football team and only one game better than the 3-4-1 Colts, New England is the superior club.
While the Colts have failed to cover the NFL spreads in two straight games, the Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their past five. Furthermore, the Patriots are also 7-2 ATS in their past nine games against the Colts, but 1-2 in their past three.
When it comes to Bill Belichick versus Sam Ehlinger, I will err on the side of one of the best head coaches ever to live, who gives first-year starting quarterbacks fits more times than not.
The Colts field the third-worst offense at 16.1 points per game while the Patriots have the 12th-best defense in points allowed (20.4). The Patriots’ defense also has the fourth-most takeaways (14) while the Colts’ offense has given the ball away a league-high 16 times.
The Patriots will cruise to a win and cover in Week 9, which is why I’m listing this as my NFL bet of the day.
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Bills vs Jets Best Bet
Under 47.5 Total Points (-115) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
This Bills vs Jets matchup features two of the best defenses in the NFL. While the Jets have the 11th-best defense in points allowed (19.9), the Bills are No. 1 in that category, conceding 14 ppg.
And while the Bills’ offense can undoubtedly score the football enough to cover the Over by themselves, Robert Saleh‘s defense is no slouch. The reason why I like the Under is that the Jets’ offense has clearly taken a step back after losing Breece Hall for the year with a knee injury.
Therefore, the Jets will be hard-pressed to score enough points for the Over to hit, making the Under the best bet.
While the Under is 5-0 in the past five games the Bills have played overall, the Under is also 4-0 in the past four games that the Bills have played against AFC opponents. The Under is also 2-1 in the past three games the Bills and Jets have played against each other overall.
Packers vs Lions Best Bet
Over 49.5 Total Points (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
All is not well in Green Bay. While the Packers have dropped three straight games, they did show signs of life against the Bills Sunday night, despite taking the loss.
As for the Lions, you can tell they are already packing in another lost season following the sudden trade of T.J. Hockenson.
When it comes to Packers vs Lions matchups, points normally fly. When it comes to covering NFL totals, the Over is 3-1 in the past four meetings between these two teams, hitting in two straight.
Furthermore, while the Over is 3-2 in the past five games the Packers have played overall, it is also 7-2 in the past nine games the Lions have played.
Despite a lack of weapons at pass-catcher, Aaron Rodgers will find a way to score points on a Detroit defense that is ranked dead last in points (32.1).
And although the Green Bay defense is sound against the pass, you can run on them. The Packers are allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game (141.3), which plays right in the hands of what the Lions do best.
With the Over hitting in five of the past seven games the Lions and Packers have played in Detroit, I am riding the trend and betting on the Over.
Vikings vs Commanders Best Bet
Vikings -3.5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1.5 Units
The Vikings are one of the more shocking teams in the NFL, entering Week 9 with a 6-1 record. Re-loading at tight end by acquiring T.J. Hockenson, Kirk Cousins‘ offense is loaded to keep up with the NFL’s best.
Covering the spread in two straight games, the Vikings will look to extend that streak to three in a row on the road in Washington.
Although the Commanders are the inferior team, they have won three consecutive games, covering the spread in all of them. However, that streak will come to an end on Sunday. All three of Washington’s wins during this run have come against teams with a .500 record or worse.
The Vikings are one of the NFC’s powerhouse teams and will be a handful for the Commanders, who are finding ways to get by with Taylor Heinicke under center.
Minnesota has won six games this season, five by more than four points, which is enough to cover the 3.5 points on the road at the Commanders.
Ravens vs Saints Best Bet
Ravens Moneyline (-152) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 2 Units
The Ravens are 5-3 in NFL moneyline betting this season and will travel to New Orleans to challenge the 3-5 Saints.
Although the Saints are coming off an impressive blowout win over the Raiders, the Ravens are a much tougher matchup.
Keep in mind that the Ravens just traded for Roquan Smith, who adds elite talent to the middle of the defense and is a standalone difference-maker.
While the Ravens’ offense is banged up by injury, Lamar Jackson alone can take a game over and give fits to any defense, but especially to a Saints unit allowing the fifth-most ppg (25).
One matchup that will make a difference is in the turnover category. The Saints have given the football away 16 times, while the Ravens’ defense has taken the ball away 14 times. You can only give Jackson so many chances before he capitalizes.
With a 3-1 mark on the road in 2022, look for the Ravens to walk out of Week 9 with a win over the Saints.
