Week 9 gives us a 14-game week with four teams on bye. Denver is the only team we won’t miss.
Week 8’s picks went 3-2 and brought back a +0.6 units. Houston came out of its bye flat, while Atlanta and Tennessee made their Under 36.5 total points Over/Under look silly, as the game finished with 51 points. It’s a tough loss, but credit to Will Levis and the Titans for playing well on offense.
NFL Week 9 Best Bet
Bears vs Saints -7.5 (-105)
BetRivers Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
This is the best line in terms of payout. Multiple other books have -7.5 at (-110), and DraftKings has -7 at (-115).
We got the full Tyson Bagent experience on the road against the Chargers, and now the rookie has to start another road game, this time in New Orleans. Bagent has been mediocre at best in two-plus games, committing four turnovers, two of which were defensive touchdowns.
The Saints offense was humming at Indy Week 8, and a home matchup against a non-existent pass rush and exhausted secondary is more than enough to think the Saints cover through any number up to (-9.5).
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NFL Week 9 ATS Best Bets
Seahawks vs Ravens -5.5 (-110)
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Seattle is 2-1 on the road and has covered twice, but it’s easy to see it fall to .500 ATS away from Seattle Week 9. Baltimore is first in Defensive DVOA (FTN) and fourth in Offensive DVOA. That should prove difficult for the Seattle offense that has had difficulties stringing together productive drives.
Seattle’s strong start at home against a top defense from Cleveland was negated by turnovers and lost the turnover battle to the Browns despite its walk-off win.
The Ravens demolished a good Lions defense two weeks ago, and it can be argued that the Seahawks defense is worse, despite splash plays from the likes of CB Devon Witherspoon.
NFL Week 9 Over/Under Best Bets
Cowboys vs Eagles Over 46 Points (-109)
BetRivers Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Forty-six points feels low since both teams are two of the best in terms of winning margin and points per game. The Cowboys have the best average winning margin and still average 21.5 points in road games this season.
The Eagles’ secondary has been a sieve, and we just saw CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks get on track in Week 8.
Philly is averaging a whopping 0.1 points per game fewer than Dallas. The road Cowboys and home Eagles have combined to score an average of 54.5 points per game in 2023. Both teams have been dealing with injuries on their lines, which could lead to more explosive plays.
Rams vs Packers Over 39 Points (-110)
BetRivers Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Most books are at 39.5 points at (-110), so this is the best number that will move fast. I like it up to 42.5.
The Rams offense was shut down by an advantageous Cowboys defense last week. The Packers D may be able to get after the QB, but they let up big plays to mediocre offenses (see Vikings, Minnesota).
L.A.’s offense is arguably the second-best Green Bay will have faced through half the season, and it has allowed 17, 34, and 24 points at home.
The Packers have also not faced a defense at home performing as poorly as the one coming to town Sunday. It’s still Aaron Donald and everyone else. Green Bay does not need Jordan Love to be a hero to win this game or to put up points.
Both teams desperately need a win to keep their fading playoff hopes alive.
Week 9 Moneyline Best Bets
Dolphins (+124) vs Chiefs
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Taking Miami straight up in a neutral setting makes a lot of sense - less weather impact with the game not in Missouri, same/similar travel schedule for both teams to Germany, and the Dolphins have an edge.
Patrick Mahomes should be able to recover from his flu/illness that clearly hindered his Week 8 performance. The problem is his illness wasn’t why the Chiefs receiving corps performed poorly once again.
Both teams are operating as if their matchup in Germany is an away game, so if we want to look at road production, Miami is notably better than Kansas City. The Dolphins are scoring 24.3 points per road game, while K.C. is at an even 19.
Add in injuries and the Chiefs inefficient offense, and an “upset" is live.
