Welcome to Week 8, where there are zero teams on a bye after six were off Week 7. No surprise that I had my worst week of the season for best bets, going 1-4 and dropping almost 4.5 units.
We press on, looking at a full catalog of games to wager. We get numerous divisional matchups, a trio of awful island games, and the battle of New Jersey.
NFL Week 8 Best Bet
Texans -3 (-102) vs Panthers
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
The spread is set at three, and FD has the least amount of juice.
Big fan of what the Texans have accomplished through six games. They deserve to be the road favorite as they have had better play from the QB and WR positions, and the defense has been good enough to slow opposing offenses.
Carolina is allowing a 7.31% sack rate, 22nd in the NFL, and have very little help offensively to allow rookie QB Bryce Young to get rid of the ball when under pressure. The Panthers are also in the middle of numerous trade deadline rumors, which creeps into locker rooms, no matter what players say.
Neither team gets the bye week advantage, as both enjoyed Week 7 from home.
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NFL Week 8 ATS Best Bets
Bengals +5.5 (-110) vs 49ers
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
A mediocre Vikings offense was able to put up points against a strong 49ers front four because the secondary is the Achilles heel of the team.
On a short week, San Francisco has to have Christian McCaffrey back up to snuff as a runner, and for Brock Purdy to make better decisions against a better defensive backs group with Cincy coming to the Santa Clara.
Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins getting a week off before playing one of the better teams in the NFL plays a role in taking the points. A productive Joe Mixon would also go a long way with this bet, but I think the Bengals have an RB problem. I doubt this number goes past (-6), but I can see it dropping to (-4.5) in a hurry.
Patriots vs Dolphins -9.5 (-110)
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Miami continues to be a team with larger numbers as an NFL point spread favorite, especially at home.
Miami had their issues playing in Philadelphia, and are happy to be back home. The Dolphins average 47.7 points at home compared to 24.3 on the road. Both numbers are great, but the defense is different at home, only allowing 19 points per game in three home contests. That number balloons to 32.5 in four road games.
The Fish also have a unique home advantage with the visiting team’s sidelines directly in the sun. The weather for this week’s game is supposed to be in the 80s with sun.
NFL Week 8 Over/Under Best Bets
Eagles vs Commanders Over 43.5 Points (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
I am oddly looking forward to this game because both defenses are pass funnels. To be fair, the Commanders defense is an offensive funnel, but they allow more through the air as they have 1.5 total DBs.
We’ve seen Jalen Hurts pick apart any secondary that is deemed mediocre or bad, and even with this being a divisional matchup, I expect, Hurts to continue to push the ball through the air to open running lanes for his backs. It’s been a successful formula through seven games.
Sam Howell deserves praise for making plays while running for his life. That has led to a lower QB rating at home, but he has the same yards per attempt at home and away, and his completion percentage rises to 67.6% in front of the Commanders faithful.
Falcons vs Titans Under 36.5 Points (-108)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
This number is low, but with the Titans starting one of Malik Willis (bad) or Will Levis (bad enough to not beat Willis for the QB2 job), the Titans are in trouble. Atlanta has one of the better secondaries in the NFL.
Tennessee just traded Keith Byard, but their strength is the pass rush, and Desmond Ridder loves giving the ball away; he just had three fumbles in the red zone and lost zero of them, and has six on the season. That number has regression written all over it.
Expect a lot of running and questionable offensive play.
