The first bye week brought disappointment for yours truly, but the process was right and two of the three betting losses were on the verge of being wins.
Week 6 gives us a third consecutive game overseas to consider, as well as two confusing teams - Green Bay and Pittsburgh - on their bye and out of my betting consciousness.
Week 5 brought a 2-3 record and another -1.38 Units. It easily could have been a +0.7-Unit day if Houston doesn’t lose on a game-winning field goal. Improvements must be made to my NFL betting strategy.
My bets are 12-15 for -4.39 Units.
NFL Week 6 Best Bet
Panthers vs Dolphins -13.5 (-110)
BetMGM Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
A two-score spread is a tough wager to recommend, but the best offense in the NFL is in another good spot to boat race their opponent.
The Dolphins could be without De’Von Achane for at least this game, but will have no fewer than Raheem Mostert, Chris Brooks, and Salvon Ahmed to run the football. A return from Jeff Wilson Jr. would also help this unit against a Panthers run defense that has seen the 15th-most carries and has allowed the seventh-most yards.
Carolina has also seen one of the lowest pass rates against since it has been losing and losing by a lot at times. Miami could efficiently pass the ball and pivot to running the ball before the Panthers reach double-digit points itself.
Miles Sanders (groin) has been inefficient, and Chuba Hubbard has not been much better when given carries. If the Panthers can’t run the ball early, this game will get ugly with Bryce Young taking 15 sacks.
Miami has 17 and will look to pressure the rookie early and often.
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NFL Week 6 ATS Best Bets
Cardinals vs Rams -6.5 (-105)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
I like this number a lot, even if it is probably spot on. The Cardinals ran into an elite WR Week 5 and showed that when down, there are a number of inconsistencies that won’t get figured out with the talent on their roster.
Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua won’t get three touchdowns each (I think) like Ja’Marr Chase did, but they will cause havoc.
Arizona is going to be without James Conner (IR, knee), which means Emari Demercado will be expected to carry the rushing work on the road. I don’t trust Josh Dobbs having to potentially throw the ball to stay in the game after failing to do so Week 5.
NFL Week 6 Over/Under Best Bets
49ers vs Browns Under 39 Points (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Nothing about this game screams Over. Deshaun Watson (shoulder) was working off to the side to start Week 6’s practice schedule after having a week off.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson was not the answer against Baltimore in a spot start. It was announced October 11 that P.J. Walker would start if Watson is out. The veteran could be an improvement over DTR, but he is an uninspiring QB in this situation.
The 49ers should move the ball fine, but the Browns front four deserves credit for being one of the best units in the league.
Eagles vs Jets Under 42 Points (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
The Jets are averaging 17.33 points per game at home, which is bad if you didn’t know. It’s even worse when the Eagles come to town.
I expect a muted offensive performance from Philly against an elite New York secondary. I also expect the Iggles to turn in a show on the ground with D’Andre Swift, Kenneth Gainwell, and Boston Scott.
Gang Green has been money for opposing backs, allowing 147 yards per game on the ground. Philadelphia is averaging 162.6 rushing per contest.
The Jets also lost Alijah Vera-Tucker (Achilles) for the season. He had been their best offensive lineman prior to his injury.
Now New York has to slow down the Eagles pass rush that is at or near the top in sacks, pressures, QB hits, and hurries.
Get the ice tub ready for Zach Wilson.
- See a full list of NFL Over/Under totals for Week 6 and let me know if there are others I should have considered.
NFL Week 6 Moneyline Best Bets
Vikings vs Bears (+128)
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Is there recency bias with this pick? Yes, but there has to be.
Chicago put together its best offensive game plan and performance on a short week, while Minnesota just lost Justin Jefferson (IR, hamstring), its offensive engine, for at least four weeks.
Neither pass defense is going to wow or be the difference in the game. Both run defenses have had success, and both teams are below average at the position, especially with Chicago potentially down its top two backs Week 6.
That means this could come down to Justin Fields vs Kirk Cousins. Cousins continues to keep the ball out of trouble, but the offense’s fumbling problems play into Chicago’s recent surge of winning when forcing turnovers.
No Jefferson means an emphasis on T.J. Hockenson, which is never a bad thing, especially against Chicago.
The only issue is Chicago could be getting secondary reinforcements back after 10 days off. If they come back and Fields once again has time to pick apart a poor secondary, the Bears will jump the Vikings in the NFC North standings.
There’s a dynamic level Chicago has found that Minnesota lacks.
