NFL wagering in 2022 has been a wild ride. This has been one of the most difficult years to predict thus far, likely correlating with all the parity in the league.
On this week’s slate, there will be four teams on their bye weeks as the Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Las Vegas Raiders, and Tennessee Titans all have the week off.
Despite the roller coaster start to the season, there are two trends worth identifying. While the Falcons are 2-3, they are 5-0 against the spread. Then we have the Cowboys, who are 4-0 straight-up with backup quarterback Cooper Rush.
Week 5 was a struggle with my Best Bets, as I went 2-4 and lost three units. Improvements must be made to my NFL betting strategy.
Anthony Cervino’s 2022 NFL Best Bets: 14-17 (-5 units)
Buccaneers vs Steelers Best Bet
Buccaneers -8.5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Steelers are a shell of the Mike Tomlin-led teams of the past. Even with the quarterback change to Kenny Pickett, the offense is still struggling.
While the rookie has thrown four interceptions in two games, he failed to lead his offense to a touchdown in last week’s loss to the Bills.
A mismatch nightmare, the Buccaneers’ defense is allowing the sixth-fewest points per game while the Steelers’ offense is scoring the third-fewest.
On the other side, after being carried by their defense, the Buccaneers’ offense is beginning to get healthy and play more efficient football.
In a game where both sides have failed to cover the spread in each of the past three games, look for Tom Brady’s Buccaneers to get his unit on track in Week 6.
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Vikings vs Dolphins Best Bet
Vikings -3 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1.5 Units
At the time of this writing, both Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater are in the NFL’s concussion protocol. However, reports are suggesting that Bridgewater will be cleared in time to play in a revenge game scenario against the Vikings.
While the Dolphins have surprised the league by going 3-0 with Tagovailoa, they are 0-2 without him. On the other hand, the Vikings are a terrific 4-1 and playing well under new head coach Kevin O’Connell.
Here is a trend to watch regarding both teams.
The Dolphins are 3-0 ATS in wins and 0-2 in losses while the Vikings have failed to cover in four straight games, a trend that will end in Week 6.
Vikings’ signal caller Kirk Cousins is tough to trust in big spots. However, this is a game in the 1 p.m. ET window, which means we will get the good version of the veteran passer.
The matchup to watch is the Vikings’ 12th-ranked offense versus the Dolphins’ 29th-ranked defense in points. If Minnesota gets going, the Dolphins won’t be able to keep up en route to covering the -3.
Panthers vs Rams Best Bet
Under 40.5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1.5 Units
The Rams are in desperate need of a get-right game. They have it on Sunday against the reeling Panthers.
While the Panthers just fired head coach Matt Rhule, they will also be without the inept Baker Mayfield. This translates to an interim head coach and backup quarterback P.J. Walker going on the road to contend with the struggling defending Super Bowl champions.
Look for the Rams to be much-improved against a team that fails to do anything right and has yet to find its identity.
The two greatest deficiencies for the Rams have been running the football and their secondary. They will get on track facing a Panthers front yielding the sixth-most rushing yards per game.
Meanwhile, the Los Angeles defense will look like a shutdown unit against Walker.
Taking the Rams to cover -10.5 is a risky play, which is why Under 40.5 is the best bet for this matchup.
When it comes to NFL over-under betting, the Under is 5-2 in the past seven meetings between these two teams.
Bills vs Chiefs Best Bet
Over 53.5 (-115) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1.5 Units
In the Patrick Mahomes era, the Chiefs and Bills have met four times, with three of those encounters taking place at Arrowhead. In all three of those matchups, the Over was the play. I will err on the side of that trend in their Week 6 meeting.
While the Under is 1-4 in five Bills games this season, they have yet to face off against an offense like the one Kansas City brings to the table.
Buffalo has played the Titans, Steelers, Dolphins, Ravens, and Rams. We know the Rams are a shell of themselves from 2021 while the Ravens played the Bills tough home, stymieing Josh Allen.
When it comes to Chiefs games, the Over is 3-2, hitting in two straight. The Chiefs’ defense is their handicap, which means in a game against the Bills, they will have to outscore you to win.
The Over is 5-1 in the past six Bills-Chiefs meetings in Kansas City. I am smashing this trend and the Over in Week 6.
Broncos vs Chargers Best Bet
Chargers -4.5 (-115) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Let’s call it what it is. Both the Chargers and Broncos are under-selling expectations in 2022 thus far. However, the Chargers are 3-2 while the Broncos are a lucky 2-3.
Things could turn around for Russell Wilson and Nathaniel Hackett, but poor decisions and play-calling have been a thorn in Denver’s side.
At 1-4 ATS this season, the Broncos will have a tough time covering on Monday night getting a Chargers team that is finding ways to win games they probably shouldn’t.
Despite their 3-2 mark, Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS and has covered three straight games. They will make it four in a row on Monday night.
Here is why.
While these two teams are both 2-2 on NFL moneyline betting and ATS in their past four meetings, the Chargers have won and covered at home both times. Furthermore, in Broncos-Chargers matchups, the home team is 5-0 ATS in their past five meetings.
The Chargers are the home favorites on Monday night, and they will win and cover in Week 6.