If you wanted more injuries in Week 2, you got them. That and some high-scoring, back-and-forth contests that may or may not have messed with my best bets.
Entering Week 3, my best bets are 5-7, and I am down -3.18 units.
NFL odds are current as of Wednesday, Sept. 20, at 10 p.m. ET and courtesy of the sportsbooks listed.
Broncos vs Dolphins Best Bet
Dolphins -6.5 (-108)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
One of the best things the Dolphins have accomplished as an offense is distribution. Even with Jaylen Waddle (groin) limited in practice, the Miami pass-catching corps has been utilized when the group is at full strength. Braxton Berrios and River Cracraft have been crucial, especially on third down.
Durham Smythe has been an excellent tight end in the Mike McDaniel offense and is fourth in expected fantasy points, according to Establish The Run’s Mike Leone. That matters for betting because he is seeing targets, and those targets are downfield more often than not.
If Tua Tagovailoa keeps getting the ball out quickly and continually down the field, Denver’s secondary will eventually wear down. Did I mention Denver has three contributing defensive players with a Wednesday DNP?
Russell Wilson isn’t who he used to be and is going against a Miami defense with seven sacks and two takeaways (both against the New England Patriots).
Back the Fish with your NFL bet of the day.
Colts vs Ravens Best Bet
Under 45.5 Points (-108)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
The Ravens have major concerns with injuries, including two key offensive linemen.
The Colts will more than likely be without Anthony Richardson (9/22 UPDATE: Richardson will not play Week 3) after he suffered a concussion that caused him to miss majority of Week 2’s win.
Lamar Jackson has looked good in two games with offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and if Odell Beckham Jr. (ankle) were to miss Week 3, it wouldn’t change much for the former MVP with newfound depth at receiver.
The Under looks good, especially if the Colts offense keeps the passing game short and simple as they similarly did for the majority of Week 2, as Gardner Minshew does not operate like Richardson.
Bills vs Commanders Best Bet
Over 43.5 Points (-110)
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
James Cook and Brian Robinson Jr. have added desperately needed layers to their respective offenses, and with Josh Allen and Sam Howell bouncing in back Week 2, this game in the D.C. Metro area should have fireworks.
The Bills have numerous defensive players with Wednesday DNPs, and if any of them DNP Thursday, this number could go up.
Cowboys vs Cardinals Best Bet
Cowboys -11.5 (-110)
PointsBet Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
PointsBet is the only book not listing at 12 or 12.5.
James Conner is the most important player for Arizona, and if he can’t get going running the ball, Micah Parsons and the Cowboys defense are going to put up sack numbers on Joshua Dobbs. Dallas is allowing 107 passing yards per game so far, and Dobbs isn’t the QB to put up video game numbers.
The news that Trevon Diggs (ACL) is done for 2023 gives me some doubt in this pick, but I trust the Cowboys defense more than the Cardinals offense.
Panthers vs Seahawks Best Bet
Seahawks -6 (-105)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
The Seahawks defense is allowing an unsightly 325 passing yards per game, and Bryce Young (9/22 UPDATE: Young will not play Week 3. Andy Dalton will start.) is going to not match that in Week 3 (partially because he’s doubtful).
Another aspect of the Seahawks that allowed them to mount a comeback in Week 2 and should reappear in Week 3 is winning the turnover battle. Seattle is +1.5 in two games, while Carolina is -1.5. That matters, especially with a rookie QB traveling to a stadium with a known homefield advantage.
