The first two weeks of an NFL season are a wild ride. Since some teams don’t play notable players in the preseason, one could make the case that some teams and personnel are just getting into form, which makes for a headache in the NFL betting realm.
NFL Week 3 should be a lot more fruitful for NFL bettors with the league beginning to take shape halfway through the first quarter of regular-season play.
Entering NFL Week 3, my Best Bets record is 6-7 but I’m down 2.5 units. If you’ve followed by betting picks through the years, I have been known to break late, something that must be corrected starting now.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts Best Bet
Chiefs -6.5 (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
This game tells a tale of two clubs going in opposite directions early. While the Chiefs look outstanding, putting to bed initial concerns about life sans Tyreek Hill, the Matt Ryan-era with the Colts has begun with the velocity of a pop-gun.
Failing to defeat a pair of AFC South foes, the Texans and Jaguars, projected to be amongst the NFL’s worst, the Colts’ season could be hanging in the balance if they don’t figure it out at home against the Chiefs. A feat that should be unexpected.
Granted, the Colts could get WR Michael Pittman Jr. (quad), WR Alec Pierce (concussion), and LB Shaq Leonard (back) back from their respective injuries, but the Chiefs will be a tough out. While Indy can move the football, they are ranked dead-last in points scored per game (10.0) and are coming off a 24-0 shutout loss to the rejuvenated Jags.
On the other side, the Colts’ defense is still trying to find its way without former DC Matt Eberflus and will be challenged by a Kansas City offense that ranks fifth in passing yards (403.5) and third in points (35.5).
While the Colts are 0-4 against the spread (ATS) in their past four games, the road team in this matchup is 5-2 in their past seven meetings. Kansas City is the road favorite here, and they are seven points better than the Colts.
Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings Best Bet
Over 53.5 Total Points (-106) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
In the first two games of the season that the Lions have played, 136 total points have been scored. Moreover, going back to their past four games dating back to 2021, 283 total points were scored.
Expect points to rain in Minnesota on Sunday afternoon.
This isn’t the Lions of the past. Dan Campbell‘s Lions have grit and can win in the trenches while opening up the big play for Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and company.
And although the Vikings were stymied in Philadelphia on Monday night, we need not worry. This Lions and Vikings tilt is a 1 p.m. ET home game for Minnesota. Kirk Cousins will remember he’s an NFL quarterback and distribute the ball to Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and Dalvin Cook, who were all invisible on Monday night.
Both clubs have explosive offenses with questionable defenses. We know the Lions need work. However, peep this.
While the Vikings are sixth in points allowed (15.5), they are 29th in total yards surrendered (412.0) and 24th in rushing (137.0), which plays into Detroit’s offensive strength. Oh, and that low-point total was because the Vikings opened up against a Packers team that wasn’t ready.
The Over is 4-0 in the past four games the Lions have played and 4-0 in their last four against the NFC.
Atlanta Falcons vs Seattle Seahawks Best Bet
Falcons Moneyline (+108) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1.5 Units
The Seahawks opened the year with a win over the Broncos but sputtered in Week 2. Meanwhile, the Falcons are showing signs of life, covering the spread against quality foes in each of their first two games.
Seattle’s offense is a bottom-six unit in terms of offensive production and their defense is not much better. They will host a Falcons offense that is ninth in points (26.5) and has the firepower to score the football.
If the Falcons continue to put up points with their playmakers, Geno Smith‘s Seahawks will not be able to keep up. Dead last in rushing yards per game, Seattle’s one-dimensional offense will once again be exposed.
On paper, this game is ugly. However, it is also a game that favors the road underdog. You can play safe and take the Falcons at +1.5 (-110), but since it is that close, take the plus-money odds on the moneyline.
The Falcons are 6-2-1 ATS in their past nine road games and 4-1 ATS in their past five meetings with the Seahawks. The Falcons are better than you think. They’ll steal this win.
Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals Best Bet
Over 49.5 Total Points (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
In two regular-season meetings between the Rams and Cardinals last season, at least 53 total points were scored. In fact, at least 53 points were scored between these two NFC West foes in four of their past six games.
Once again, expect fireworks in the desert.
While the Rams are 14th in points scored (20.5), the Cardinals are 10th in that category (25.5). That isn’t even the exciting part. Both defenses are entering this matchup ranked in the bottom three in points allowed. These offenses will feast in a game that screams punch-for-punch shootout.
The Over is 4-1 in the past five Cardinals games at home. That trend will continue in Week 3.
Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Best Bet
Packers +2.5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Both the Packers and Buccaneers have question marks at wide receiver. While Green Bay’s were self-inflicted, moving off Davante Adams without bringing in a veteran of note better than Sammy Watkins, the Buccaneers are decimated by injury and suspension.
Although Mike Evans is already out as he will serve a one-game ban stemming from a Week 2 fight with Marshon Lattimore, the playing status of Chris Godwin (hamstring) and Julio Jones (knee) remains uncertain. They are so decimated that the Bucs added Cole Beasley to their practice squad.
Peeling off the layers, we still have a showdown between Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady, and two of the NFC’s best organizations in recent memory.
Through two games, both teams have enjoyed terrific defensive play. Notably, the Buccaneers, who are ranked first in points allowed (6.5). The Packers are no slouches either, however, as their defense is ranked seventh in that category (16.5).
In a game that could be decided by the run, I err on the side of the Packers, who not only pack a punishing two-man punch at running back, but are also the team in better overall health.
Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants Best Bet
Cowboys Moneyline (+120) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Maybe Cooper Rush is better than we think. He is 2-0 as a starter in the past two seasons. And it is not like he was playing the Texans, either. He has beaten the Vikings and Bengals. Now, he gets the Giants.
Although the Giants are 2-0, they have yet to face a defensive punch like the one the Cowboys will bring to the table. This Cowboys defense is Super Bowl-caliber in Year 2 under Dan Quinn and Year 2 of the Micah Parsons takeover. Furthermore, the Cowboys have held the offenses led by Brady and Joe Burrow to fewer than 19 points.
Good luck, Daniel Jones. As long as Rush doesn’t make any mistakes, he just needs to manage the game while the defense makes plays.
Rush goes 3-0 as the Cowboys starter in a tight road victory in the Monday night Joe Buck and Troy Aikman primetime special.
The Cowboys are 9-1 straight up against the Giants in their past 10 meetings while also covering the spread in eight of those games.
