Derek Carr and the New Orleans Saints travel to Houston to face 2023’s No. 2 overall NFL draft pick C.J. Stroud and the Texans.
Through the first five games, Stroud has looked like one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, ranking third in passing yards (1,461) and throwing no interceptions.
The Saints defense is among the best in the league and will be a big test for the rookie signal-caller.
Saints vs Texans Odds
NFL odds used for this New Orleans vs Houston preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of 11 p.m. ET on Wednesday, October 11.
- Moneyline: Saints (-120) • Texans (+100)
- Spread: Saints -1 (-112) • Texans +1 (-108)
- Total Points: Over 42 (-108) • Under 42 (-112)
- Implied Score: Saints 21.5, Texans 20.5
Saints vs Texans Predictions
Score Pick: Saints 27, Texans 16
The Saints rank fourth in the NFL in opponent points per game allowed (15.2) and have defensive playmakers on three levels of the field, from Cameron Jordan to Demario Davis, Pete Werner, Marshon Lattimore, and Tyrann Mathieu.
They will wreak havoc and make life difficult for Stroud and the Texans offense, which is also missing talented wide receiver and fellow rookie Tank Dell, who is not expected to play in Week 6 because of a concussion.
The Texans’ defense ranks 18th in the league in opponent yards per game (338.8). Expect a Saints offense filled with talented skill-position players to be able to move the ball and put up points against a unit that can be exploited.
Saints vs Texans Best Bets & Props
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 2 units
The Texans have been one of the more pleasant surprises of the 2023 NFL season through the first five weeks, but it cannot be forgotten that they won just three games all of last season.
While they are trending in the right direction, they are still a ways away from competing – especially against a team like the Saints, which is the more talented team on both sides of the ball.
That’s not to mention the experience factor. Carr and head coach Dennis Allen have 15 seasons of NFL quarterback/head coach experience compared to Stroud and DeMeco Ryans’ 10, making this my NFL bet of the day.
Alvin Kamara Under 96.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-115)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
In the two games Saints running back Alvin Kamara has played since being activated from the reserve/suspended list, he has averaged 24.5 touches per game.
While the workload has been encouraging, Kamara has been wildly inefficient with those opportunities, averaging just 3.7 yards per touch.
Kamara has averaged more than 20 touches per game just once in the first six years of his career, suggesting that the touches could be scaled back closer to his average through six seasons (17.8).
With less touches for a player who has struggled to gain yards consistently, Kamara will have a hard time reaching this high yardage total.
Derek Carr Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes (+150)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units
Carr has thrown for multiple touchdown passes just once in 2023, but he now has an inviting matchup against a middling Texans defense that is without top cornerback Derek Stingley Jr.
Carr faced the Texans four times during his nine-year stint with the Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders, throwing exactly three touchdown passes in two of them.
Now that he is back to practicing in full, the shoulder injury he suffered in Week 3 seems to be behind him, and the good times will continue to roll for Carr against the Texans.
Saints vs Texans Same-Game Parlay
Saints vs Texans SGP (+138)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
- Saints (-120)
- Texans Under 20.5 (-115)
The Saints defense is one of the stingiest units in the NFL. In addition to ranking fourth in opponent points per game, they also rank fourth in opponent yards per game (274.6). Nothing will come easy for the Texans offense on Sunday.
Per Odds Shark, the Saints have won six of their last seven games against AFC South opponents and 15 of the last 20 games they have played in October.
They were already my NFL bet of the day, and here we are doubling down on that bet to a degree.