I am coming off a week of frustrating tight results, as the Seahawks swung me to the losing side for the week in game props in the late Sunday window. I had recommended them in the 11-20 total points band vs the Jets, and Seattle scored 23.
In NFL Week 18, I naturally focus on the games with heavier playoff implications, but spoiler candidates can pay off, too.
Scott Engel 2022 NFL props betting: 83-140 (-67.5 units)
Before reading Scott’s picks, toggle with the widget below for our full list of NFL Week 18 player props:
NFL Player Props Week 18
NFL Week 18 odds used for prop bets are from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise noted) and are current as of Friday, Jan. 6.
Najee Harris: Over 73.5 Rushing Yards (-117) vs Browns at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 2 Units
The Steelers can get into the AFC playoffs with a win and some help. They can take care of their own business by depending heavily on Harris in a very favorable matchup.
Harris has rushed for more than 85 yards in two of his past three games, and the Browns rank 30th in rushing yards allowed to RBs over the past four weeks and 28th over the full season.
Jarrett Stidham: Over 1.5 TD Passes (-115) vs Chiefs
WAGER: 2 Units
Stidham was a pleasant surprise for the Raiders in his first career start in Week 17. Not only did he pass for 365 yards against the NFL’s top-ranked defense, but he also threw three TD passes against the 49ers, positioning this wager as a nifty Week 18 NFL bet.
San Francisco has allowed 19 TD passes to opposing QBs, which is tied for fifth in the NFL. Kansas City has allowed a league-high 32 TD passes to QBs, so Stidham won’t be holding back again as he continues on his quest to prove himself.
Zay Jones: Anytime TD Scorer (+180) vs Titans
WAGER: 1.5 Units
I am expecting the Jaguars, who have won five of six to put themselves in a position to win their second AFC South title, to pull away quickly from the Titans. Tennessee has allowed an AFC-high 19 TD receptions to opposing WRs.
In Week 12 against the Titans, Jones caught a 20-yard TD reception and he was targeted 12 times. Christian Kirk is also a viable Anytime TD Scorer candidate at +155.
DK Metcalf: Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-115) vs Rams
WAGER: 1 Unit
After the Jets’ secondary limited Metcalf to one reception for three yards last week, I expect him to get the classic treatment that top WRs are frequently rewarded with after a quiet game. Geno Smith will target Metcalf early and often.
In Week 13 against the Rams, Metcalf caught all eight of his targets for 127 yards. Los Angeles ranks 24th in receiving yards allowed to WRs.
Aaron Jones: Over 87.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) vs Lions
WAGER: 1 Unit
Jones has cleared the projected scrimmage yard total here in rushing yards alone in two of the past three games. This game has the highest total on the board of all the Sunday games (49), so I expect Green Bay’s best offensive weapon to be a significant factor.
Detroit ranks 21st in rushing yards allowed to running backs over the past four weeks. Jones should post at least respectable rushing totals with the bulk of his touches, and he can make this wager pay off with an explosive run/reception or two.
Miles Sanders 1+ Rushing TD, DeVonta Smith 75+ Receiving Yards (+300) vs Giants
WAGER: 1 Unit
I must finish out the regular season with another shot at a DraftKings Weekly Special. Philadelphia should coast on offense against an opponent that has nothing at stake.
The Eagles will wrap up the No. 1 seed in the NFC via Sanders, who can double his previous career-high in rushing TDs with No. 12, and Smith, who has 100-yard receiving outings in four of his past five games.
NFL Prop Bets Week 18
Lions vs Packers: DET Over 21.5 Points (-115)
WAGER: 2 Units
By the time Detroit kicks off at Green Bay, it is possible that it will be eliminated from the NFC playoff picture. But I don’t expect a Dan Campbell-led group to not hang tough in an effort to thwart Green Bay’s playoff hopes.
The Lions have scored fewer than 23 points just once in their last eight games, and they rank fourth in the NFL in scoring at 27.1 points per game.
Titans vs Jaguars: JAX -3.5 1st Half Spread (-110)
WAGER: 2 Units
Jacksonville has outscored its opponents 50-6 in its last two games, scoring 34 of the 37 points registered in the first half of each game. This matchup is being advertised as a massive AFC South showdown, but these Titans are a mismatch for the current version of the Jaguars.
Tennessee has scored just 13 first-half points in its last two games without Ryan Tannehill and will fall behind quickly on its way to ending the 2022 season with seven consecutive losses.
- Check out the latest NFL Week 18 Odds for more on the upcoming slate of games.
Rams vs Seahawks: SEA 1st To Score/Moneyline (+105)
WAGER: 1.5 Units
The Seahawks jumped on the Jets and scored the first 10 points in a must-win game at home last week. I expect them to start fast against the Rams in another matchup where they have to win to keep their NFC playoff hopes alive.
Seattle is tied for third in the NFL in first-quarter points per game (5.7). The Seahawks’ defense allowed a season-low six points in Week 17, while the Rams have failed to score 13 points in two of their last three games, so I am not expecting Los Angeles to get on the board first.
Chiefs vs Raiders: Both Teams To Score 25+ Points (+245)
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Chiefs should have no problem getting past this projected total. They have scored 26-plus points in six of their past eight games and hung 30 on the Raiders in Week 5.
Las Vegas shocked us all by scoring 34 points against San Francisco’s top-ranked defense in Week 17. Stidham can keep it rolling for a second consecutive week as the Raiders try to prevent the Chiefs from locking up the AFC’s top playoff seed.
Giants vs Eagles: PHI 21-30 Total Points Band (+155)
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Eagles will take care of business here, but they won’t have to roll past 30 points to get the job done against a Giants team that has nothing to play for.
New York may rest its starters for most or all of the day, and once the Eagles put the game out of reach, they may pack it in, too. I won’t be expecting much offense out of the Giants.
Jets vs Dolphins: NYJ Over 16.5 Total Points (-120)
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Jets were held to two field goals at Seattle, and they have scored nine points in their past two games. Look for them to get back on a respectable track this week while finishing the season with a positive performance.
Miami has allowed 23-plus points in its last five games. Joe Flacco has passed for 285-plus yards in three starts this season.
