Texans vs Patriots Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Aug 8, 2023

Two teams whose 2023 seasons are already the subject of plenty of intrigue and anticipation kick off their preseason slate at Gillette Stadium on Thursday night.

The visiting Texans are starting over yet again – including at head coach and quarterback – but unlike recent resets, there’s a legitimate optimism permeating the team thanks to the addition of head coach DeMeco Ryans, second overall pick C.J. Stroud and third overall pick Will Anderson Jr.

In contrast, the Patriots have uncharacteristic uncertainty hanging over their franchise. The most important position remains a largely unknown quantity under the stewardship of Mac Jones, and it remains to be seen whether the returning Bill O’Brien can help the 15th overall pick of the 2021 draft right the ship after a sophomore downturn.

Texans vs Patriots Odds

NFL odds used for this Houston vs New England preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Tuesday, Aug. 8 at 3:00 pm ET.

  • Moneyline: Texans (-148) • Patriots (+124)
  • Spread: Texans -3 (-110) • Patriots +3 (-110)
  • Total Points: Over 38.5 points (-110) • Under 38.5 points (-110)
  • Implied Score: Texans 20.75, Patriots 17.75

Texans vs Patriots Predictions

Score Pick: Texans 23, Patriots 21

The Patriots have a 5-0 regular-season home mark against the Texans all-time, but matters will play out differently Thursday night.

Bill Belichick is notorious for not giving away much at all during regular-season press conferences, much less preseason games. Consequently, some vanilla defensive schemes and relatively sparse use of starters are to be expected in the exhibition opener.

There might be a bit more excitement on the offensive side of the ball for New England as Jones and Bailey Zappe get their first in-game experience with former Texans head coach Bill O’Brien’s offensive scheme. The talent pool on both teams will be solid, with no shortage of experience on either roster even three and four players down the depth chart at several positions.

Stroud will get the starting call for the Texans and could be given a healthy dose of playing time. The fact he’ll be followed by two experienced hands in Davis Mills and Case Keenum points me in the direction of a slight edge for the visitors and narrow two-point win.

Texans vs Patriots Best Bets & Props

Patriots +3 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit(s)

This could actually be a very entertaining game by preseason opener standards, considering the aforementioned quality depth offensively on either side.

New England should have a solid chance of keeping this game close at home with the likes of Jones and Zappe feeding JuJu Smith-Schuster, DeVante Parker, Tyquan Thornton, Kendrick Bourne, Mike Gesicki, and Hunter Henry.

A deep running back group helmed by Rhamondre Stevenson and featuring five players overall with meaningful regular-season experience will test Houston’s questionable run defense. The Pats should therefore be able to exercise enough ball control to limit the Texans’ possessions to an extent and keep matters close.

While the Texans could well escape with a win, I’m taking the Patriots to keep any loss to less than a field goal in my NFL bet of the day.

Over 38.5 points (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit(s)

My principal rationale for the Over has already been revealed to an extent with my aforementioned emphasis on how well-stocked each offense should be throughout the game.

The Texans’ quarterback room features three capable signal-callers with starting experience, and the depth doesn’t stop there.

The backfield is led by Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary also features Dare Ogunbowale, a capable runner and receiver, and Mike Boone. The receiver depth chart boasts a top five of Robert Woods, Nico Collins, Noah Brown, two-time 1,300-yard college receiver Nathaniel Dell and high-upside redshirt freshman John Metchie III.

New England counters with its own previously alluded-to deep group of running backs and pass catchers. Factoring in the likelihood that both Belichick and Ryans will keep their defensive units basic for the most part, I believe we have enough for the Over.

Texans To Win by 1-6 Points (+310)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit(s)

As already stated, each squad should have chances to make some inroads over the course of the night against the opposing defense. The fact each offense has an above-average amount of players with regular-season experience at each skill position should help contribute to a back-and-forth affair.

Ultimately, Houston’s favorite status has only grown since the open, with the announcement of Stroud as the starter seemingly fueling some of that. Therefore, banking on a close Texans win, as we already did with the spread pick, leads to putting some faith into this wager.

Texans vs Patriots Same Game Parlay

Texans Moneyline & Over 38.5 points (+219)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit(s)

  • Texans moneyline (-148)
  • Over 38.5 points (-110)

Based on the reasons provided in my previously cited analysis, I believe this to be a viable same-game parlay to take at a very appealing price. Preseason prop betting is typically limited, but this wager combines a win by a growing favorite with the likelihood that both deep offenses have success against what should be fairly beatable defensive schemes.


Juan Carlos Blanco

Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports since 1997 and actively writing about the fantasy sports and sports betting industries since 2015 for multiple websites. He has covered a wide variety of professional sports leagues, including the NFL, MLB, NBA, CFL, Arena Football League, Alliance of American Football, XFL, NPB and KBO. He was the recipient of the FSWA's 2016 Newcomer of the Year award for his work with RotoWire.

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