Patriots vs Packers Predictions

Last Updated: Sep 27, 2022

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers (2-1) will host the New England Patriots (1-2) Sunday at Lambeau Field during Week 4 of the NFL season.

Green Bay is fresh off a huge 14-12 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a game where the Packers dominated the first half. However, for the second week in a row, Matt LaFleur allowed the opposing team to stay in the game late, leading to unnecessary fourth-quarter drama.

Meanwhile, Patriots coach Bill Belichick may need to create a gameplan without his starting quarterback after Mac Jones left with a high ankle sprain during New England’s 37-26 loss to the Baltimore Ravens.

Who will emerge victorious in this Week 4 showdown? Let’s look at current betting lines to pick out our Green Bay vs New England best bets.

Patriots vs Packers Odds

The Packers sit as a massive 10.5-point favorite at home against the Patriots, which seems like an incredibly high number for a team that has yet to get their legs under them offensively. Then again, New England has yet to give a reason to think they deserve better.

If Jones is able to play for the Patriots, expect the line to creep a bit closer toward New England.

Take a look at the best Patriots odds and Packers odds for the 2022 NFL season.

Patriots vs Packers Implied Totals

Packers 25.75, Patriots 15.2

Sportsbooks expect a blowout at Lambeau Field, albeit a low-scoring one. Therefore, it is interesting to see a 10.5-point spread paired with such a low game total. However, given the run-heavy nature of the Green Bay offense, the occasion may call for such a combination.

Patriots vs Packers Pick of the Day

Read more on this Patriots vs Packers bet below.

Patriots vs Packers Prediction

Packers 24, Patriots 13

Green Bay should be able to control the clock Sunday with their two-headed running attack, led by Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. New England has allowed 4.8 yards per carry (344 yards) through three games, while the Packers have averaged 4.7 yards per carry with 381 yards on the ground.

If Jones cannot play for New England, Joe Barry‘s defense should be able to shut down the Patriots’ attack easily. Even with Jones, New England posted the fourth-worst rated passing offense in the NFL, while the Packers have conceded the 10th fewest completions in the league.

Green Bay has allowed just 22 points over the last two weeks (15 ppg), all while Rodgers continues to build a rapport with an essentially brand new receiver room.

I expect a low-scoring game controlled by the Cheeseheads from kickoff to the final whistle.

Patriots vs Packers Bet Tips

  • The Packers are 66-34-3 ATS at Lambeau Field with Rodgers at quarterback.
  • Green Bay is also 97-64-3 ATS when listed as a favorite behind Rodgers.

Patriots vs Packers Best Bets

Under 41 Total Points (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

As mentioned above, I expect this to be a clock management game where the Packers dominate the time of possession. The Green Bay running attack will earn their money in this showdown, keeping the defense fresh while running down the game clock.

It will be an uphill battle for these teams to reach 41 points without big plays and garbage time shenanigans.

Before placing this bet, get the best Patriots promo codes.

Packers -10.5 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Early in the week, there are very few betting props available. That said, I do expect the Packers to cover the enormous spread.

Overall, I would prefer to wait for more options, such as a margin of victory wager. Check back later in the week for updated betting recommendations.

Before placing this bet, get the best Packers promo codes.


Matt Williams

Matt Williams is the Lead MLB Editor for The Game Day, formerly of The Athletic and NBC Sports. Matt is the former host of the Turn Two Podcast and champion of both Tout Wars and the Kings Classic fantasy expert leagues. He has been nominated for an FSWA award and is known for his analytical breakdown threads on Twitter.

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