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Patriots vs Packers Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Aug 18, 2023

Week 1 of the NFL Preseason was a tale of two cities for the Green Bay Packers and the New England Patriots. The Packers came out of the gate strong in defeating the Cincinnati Bengals, 36-19, while the Patriots looked downright inept in losing 20-9 to the Houston Texans at home.

As we all know, the preseason isn’t a harbinger of things to come, but reports from the first day of joint practices in Green Bay between the Packers and Patriots have continued the same narrative that we saw from each team’s first game: the Packers are looking good while the Patriots still seem to have some work ahead of them.

Patriots vs Packers Odds

NFL odds used for this New England vs Green Bay preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Thursday, Aug. 17, at noon ET.

  • Moneyline: Packers (-162) • Patriots (+136)
  • Spread: Packers -3 (-110) • Patriots +3 (-110)
  • Total Points: Over 37 (-110) • Under 37 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Packers 20, Patriots 17

Patriots vs Packers Predictions

Score Pick: Packers 21, Patriots 14

The Packers looked good last week as Jordan Love went 7-of-10 for 46 yards and a touchdown while Emanuel Wilson rushed for 111 yards and two touchdowns on just six carries. I’m not exactly crowning them Super Bowl champions just yet, but the reports from the first day of joint practices with the Patriots have indicated that the Packers continued their strong play.

The Patriots played things safe against the Texans (which might be the understatement of the century) in that they didn’t play most of their offensive starters and they used a simplistic game plan that featured backup quarterback Bailey Zappe checking down repeatedly on his way to a deceiving 12 for 14 performance for 79 yards.

Part of the need for check downs stemmed from the fact that the Patriots were playing second- and third-string offensive linemen, and Zappe had a rusher in his face for most of the game. We should see at least some of Mac Jones and the rest of the Patriots starting offense, but they’re still dealing with multiple injuries across their offensive line and will likely struggle to put points on the board.

Patriots vs Packers Best Bets & Props

Packers -3 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

This isn’t the most chock-full-of-value bet out there, but as I mentioned above, the Patriots are going to struggle to keep up with the Packers offense – and that’s something that’s been borne out of the first day of joint practices as well.

The most explosive the Patriots looked on offense last week was when undrafted rookie Malik Cunningham was under center, and we likely won’t see more than a quarter of him in this game. It’s unclear if newly-signed Ezekiel Elliott will see the field against the Packers (I’d doubt it), but the Patriots will likely continue to implement their run packages and rely on short routes and check-downs to account for their offensive line injuries.

As long as Love and the rest of the Packers can put up 20-plus points, I have a hard time seeing how the Patriots are able to get within the margin of this line for my NFL bet of the day.

Packers Win by 1–6 (+380)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

While there isn’t a ton of value in the Packers against the spread (more on that below), there’s a lot of value in this bet if you agree with me that the home team has a lot of good things going for them this week.

The Packers reportedly owned the first day of joint practices, while the Patriots are still getting their sea legs underneath them on offense due to the uncertainty across their offensive line combined with the new offense that new Offensive Coordinator Bill O’Brien is implementing. The Patriots look to be using the preseason as a way to make small incremental steps forward, so I don’t expect them to air things out against the Packers – even if we do see Jones and the starters for a few series.

The Patriots have one of the best on-paper defenses in the league, but it would be a surprise to see them out there for more than a half (if that), so the Packers should have plenty of opportunity to build on their strong offensive performance from last week. As long as they can do that, I don’t think New England has the firepower to keep up with them, making this bet one that provides us with a ton of value.

Under 37 Points (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units

I don’t love this bet (hence the 0.5 units) after the Packers almost surpassed this total on their own last week, but they’re going up against a tougher defensive unit in the Patriots this week, so it will be a lot tougher to score 30-plus like they did against the Bengals.

The Patriots defense and head coach Bill Belichick will have seen the Green Bay offense all week in joint practices, so the familiarity should help them keep the Packers in check on Saturday.

On the New England side of the ball, it only scored three points last week until Cunningham’s garbage-time touchdown, so it has a lot of work to do if it’s going to help push this total Over 37.

With its offensive line issues combined with reports that its offense struggled mightily during the first day of joint practice (“we still have a lot of work to do as a unit,” according to starting left tackle Trent Brown), I feel a lot better coming to the logical conclusion that we’re likely to see the Under hit in this game.

Patriots vs Packers Same Game Parlay

No Same Game Parlays are available for this game, but this section will be updated if they become available.

Author

Nick Roberts

Nick is an analyst at The Game Day who writes about the NFL and NBA from a betting perspective. He previously contributed to RotoWorld, Rotowire, and The New York Times. Nick resides in New Jersey.

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