The Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7) head to Detroit to take on the Lions (4-7) in an inter-conference matchup. This is a game between two teams that are better than their records.
The Jaguars just pulled off an upset over the Baltimore Ravens after Trevor Lawrence led a last-minute, game-winning drive. Meanwhile, the Lions came close to knocking off the Buffalo Bills.
This should be an interesting game that comes down to the wire.
With that in mind, let’s get right into the Jacksonville vs Detroit betting tips for Week 13.
Jaguars vs Lions Odds
All Jaguars and Lions odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of 1 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Nov. 29.
The Jaguars open as one-point road favorites, which is a bit surprising because of how well the Lions have played lately. Oddsmakers seem to be giving the advantage to Jacksonville due to their superior quarterback play.
The total is high at 51.5 points, which makes perfect sense because the Lions have consistently played in shootouts while at home this season.
Jaguars vs Lions Implied Totals
Jaguars 26.25, Lions 25.25
Bookmakers project the Jaguars to narrowly edge out the Lions in a close game with a lot of points. It seems that they’re not putting enough value into home-field advantage here.
Jaguars vs Lions Pick of the Day
Read more on this Jaguars vs Lions bet below.
Jaguars vs Lions Prediction
Lions 31, Jaguars 27
The Lions are playing terrific football right now, going 3-2 in their last five games. Their only two losses were by three points to the Buffalo Bills (8-3) and by four to the Miami Dolphins (8-3).
According to Football Outsiders, Detroit ranks 16th in total DVOA, while Jacksonville comes in at 18th. Both teams are ranked in the top 15 in offensive DVOA.
The key here is that the Lions are playing at home. Quarterback Jared Goff has been much better within the friendly confines of Ford Field.
Goff has a 102.6 quarterback rating at home, averaging 257.8 passing yards per game with 15 touchdowns and three interceptions. Compare that to his road numbers: 81 quarterback rating, 227.0 passing yards per game, two touchdowns, and four interceptions.
This means that we can’t really say that the Jaguars have as much of a quarterback advantage as it looks on paper with Lawrence and Goff. The Lions are coming off a close home loss and will likely bounce back in a close win.
We could also see the debut of promising rookie wideout Jameson Williams for Detroit here. This would give them an added dimension to their offense, as Williams has the ability to take the top off an opposing defense.
Jaguars vs Lions Bet Tips
Here are a few Jaguars vs Lions betting trends to consider before making your bets:
- The Jaguars are 4-6-1 against the spread, and Unders are 6-5 in their games this year.
- The Lions are 7-4 against the spread, and Overs are 7-4 in their games this season.
- Detroit home games average 60.67 points per game this year.
Jaguars vs Lions Best Bets
Over 51.5 Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Lions’ home games have been riddled with shootouts throughout the year. Five of their six home games have combined for 52 points or more.
It’s not like Jacksonville’s defense is good enough to slow down the points here. The Jaguars rank 30th in pass DVOA, so we could see Goff pick them apart in this one.
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Over 24.5 1st Half Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
I’m doubling down by going with the first-half Over, as well. I love what I saw out of Lawrence against the Ravens last week, where he threw for 321 yards and three touchdowns against a tough defense.
While I do think Detroit will win, I’m more confident in targeting the total in what should be a high-scoring game.
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Jaguars vs Lions Props
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