The Texans and Falcons are passing ships in the night. The former have won back-to-back contests after starting 0-2, and the latter have lost consecutive games after opening 2-0.
Both two-game steaks could be down to quarterback quality. The Texans struck gold with C.J. Stroud in this year’s draft, while Atlanta’s second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder is overmatched.
Nevertheless, the Texans are underdogs in Sunday’s matchup.
Let’s look at the statistics and betting data to make quality, informed bets on this contest.
Texans vs Falcons Odds
NFL odds used for this Houston vs Atlanta preview were found at Caesars Sportsbook and are current as of October 4 and 10:00 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Falcons (-125) • Texans (+105)
- Spread: Falcons -2 (-110) • Texans +2 (-110)
- Total Points: Over 41.5 (-110) • Under 41.5 (-110)
- Implied Score: Falcons 21.75, Texans 19.75
Texans vs Falcons Predictions
Score Pick: Texans 23, Falcons 14
The Texans have settled into a groove on both sides of the ball in the previous two games, scoring 67 points and allowing 23.
Stroud is the real deal, producing a historically good start to his NFL career.
According to ESPN, Stroud’s 151 pass attempts without an interception are the third-most to begin a career, and his 1,212 passing yards are the second-most through a quarterback’s first four games.
He’s posting his excellent numbers behind a banged-up offensive line and could get starting tackles Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard back this week.
Meanwhile, according to Pro Football Reference, Ridder has the fifth-highest sack rate (11.9%) and the third-worst QBR (29.2) among qualified quarterbacks this season. Sadly, there’s only so much Bijan Robinson can do to carry Atlanta’s offense.
Furthermore, the Falcons earned both wins against below-average quarterbacks, as measured by QBR. Stroud is a slightly above-average quarterback by that metric.
Finally, Houston’s defense is actually better than Atlanta’s by one notable metric. Per FTN Fantasy, the Texans are 16th in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), and the Falcons are 23rd.
Texans vs Falcons Best Bets & Props
Texans (+105)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
The Texans are a better all-around team with a vastly superior quarterback. They shouldn’t be underdogs.
In addition, the betting info is encouraging. The Falcons are 1-3 against the spread (ATS) this year, and the Texans are 2-2. Moreover, Houston’s covered ATS twice in three games as underdogs, and Atlanta has split ATS in two as betting favorites.
Thus, getting plus money to bet the underdog Texans on the moneyline is the NFL bet of the day.
Under 41.5 (-110)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units
Atlanta’s games have gone Under the total three times this year, and Houston’s totals have split, with two going Over and two Under. That’s a good starting point.
Additionally, both teams play at an average-to-slow pace and lean on the running game. Per RotoViz’s pace app, the Texans play at the 12th-slowest, and the Falcons play at the 16th-slowest situation-neutral pace.
In neutral game scripts, Houston and Atlanta are tied for the fifth-highest rush rate (48%).
Slow, run-heavy approaches should bleed the clock and help this contest stay under the game’s total.
Ka’imi Fairbairn Over 1.5 Total Made Extra Points (-179)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units
Houston’s implied total is a hair under three touchdowns and successful point-after attempts. Yet I’m more bullish on the Texans and projected them to score 23 points.
Therefore, Ka’imi Fairbairn should have multiple opportunities to bang through over 1.5 extra points, something he’s accomplished in three consecutive games entering this week. In addition, Fairbairn nailed all 24 of his point-after attempts in 2022.
Finally, Atlanta’s opponents have exceeded 1.5 made extra points in the previous three games. The bet is rightfully chalky and has a high probability of succeeding.
Texans vs Falcons Same-Game Parlay
Texans vs Falcons SGP (+440)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units
- Texans (+105)
- Under 41.5 (-110)
- Ka’imi Fairbairn Over 1.5 Total Made Extra Points (-179)
This three-leg same-game parlay is straightforward. It features the three previously analyzed best bets and props.
The Texans have a marked quarterback advantage and a better team, as measured by DVOA. So, they should probably be in a pick ‘em instead of being listed as a slight underdog. The game’s pace and the run-heavy tendencies of both teams are favorable for the Under.
Finally, if the Texans win, they’ll likely need to score more than one touchdown. And barring attempting a two-point try or Fairbairn missing a point-after attempt, something he hasn’t done since 2021, he has a high probability of going over his line.
