NBA
Spread

Texans vs Falcons Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Oct 5, 2023

The Texans and Falcons are passing ships in the night. The former have won back-to-back contests after starting 0-2, and the latter have lost consecutive games after opening 2-0.

Both two-game steaks could be down to quarterback quality. The Texans struck gold with C.J. Stroud in this year’s draft, while Atlanta’s second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder is overmatched.

Nevertheless, the Texans are underdogs in Sunday’s matchup.

Let’s look at the statistics and betting data to make quality, informed bets on this contest.

Texans vs Falcons Odds

NFL odds used for this Houston vs Atlanta preview were found at Caesars Sportsbook and are current as of October 4 and 10:00 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Falcons (-125) • Texans (+105)
  • Spread: Falcons -2 (-110) • Texans +2 (-110)
  • Total Points: Over 41.5 (-110) • Under 41.5 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Falcons 21.75, Texans 19.75

Texans vs Falcons Predictions

Score Pick: Texans 23, Falcons 14

The Texans have settled into a groove on both sides of the ball in the previous two games, scoring 67 points and allowing 23.

Stroud is the real deal, producing a historically good start to his NFL career.

According to ESPN, Stroud’s 151 pass attempts without an interception are the third-most to begin a career, and his 1,212 passing yards are the second-most through a quarterback’s first four games.

He’s posting his excellent numbers behind a banged-up offensive line and could get starting tackles Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard back this week.

Meanwhile, according to Pro Football Reference, Ridder has the fifth-highest sack rate (11.9%) and the third-worst QBR (29.2) among qualified quarterbacks this season. Sadly, there’s only so much Bijan Robinson can do to carry Atlanta’s offense.

Furthermore, the Falcons earned both wins against below-average quarterbacks, as measured by QBR. Stroud is a slightly above-average quarterback by that metric.

Finally, Houston’s defense is actually better than Atlanta’s by one notable metric. Per FTN Fantasy, the Texans are 16th in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), and the Falcons are 23rd.

Texans vs Falcons Best Bets & Props

Texans (+105)

Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

The Texans are a better all-around team with a vastly superior quarterback. They shouldn’t be underdogs.

In addition, the betting info is encouraging. The Falcons are 1-3 against the spread (ATS) this year, and the Texans are 2-2. Moreover, Houston’s covered ATS twice in three games as underdogs, and Atlanta has split ATS in two as betting favorites.

Thus, getting plus money to bet the underdog Texans on the moneyline is the NFL bet of the day.

Under 41.5 (-110)

Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units

Atlanta’s games have gone Under the total three times this year, and Houston’s totals have split, with two going Over and two Under. That’s a good starting point.

Additionally, both teams play at an average-to-slow pace and lean on the running game. Per RotoViz’s pace app, the Texans play at the 12th-slowest, and the Falcons play at the 16th-slowest situation-neutral pace.

In neutral game scripts, Houston and Atlanta are tied for the fifth-highest rush rate (48%).

Slow, run-heavy approaches should bleed the clock and help this contest stay under the game’s total.

Ka’imi Fairbairn Over 1.5 Total Made Extra Points (-179)

Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units

Houston’s implied total is a hair under three touchdowns and successful point-after attempts. Yet I’m more bullish on the Texans and projected them to score 23 points.

Therefore, Ka’imi Fairbairn should have multiple opportunities to bang through over 1.5 extra points, something he’s accomplished in three consecutive games entering this week. In addition, Fairbairn nailed all 24 of his point-after attempts in 2022.

Finally, Atlanta’s opponents have exceeded 1.5 made extra points in the previous three games. The bet is rightfully chalky and has a high probability of succeeding.

Texans vs Falcons Same-Game Parlay

Texans vs Falcons SGP (+440)

Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units

  • Texans (+105)
  • Under 41.5 (-110)
  • Ka’imi Fairbairn Over 1.5 Total Made Extra Points (-179)

This three-leg same-game parlay is straightforward. It features the three previously analyzed best bets and props.

The Texans have a marked quarterback advantage and a better team, as measured by DVOA. So, they should probably be in a pick ‘em instead of being listed as a slight underdog. The game’s pace and the run-heavy tendencies of both teams are favorable for the Under.

Finally, if the Texans win, they’ll likely need to score more than one touchdown. And barring attempting a two-point try or Fairbairn missing a point-after attempt, something he hasn’t done since 2021, he has a high probability of going over his line.

Author

Josh Shepardson

Josh is a fantasy gamer of roughly 20 years and a fantasy pundit for more than 10 years. He's experienced in numerous season-long baseball and football league types and a daily fantasy sports grinder, too. Additionally, Josh is a recreational gambler who has a soft spot for futures and prop bets. He studied and completed his Bachelor's degree in Sport Management at the State University of New York at Cortland, and he remains in Central New York, residing in Auburn.

Related articles

Promotions

Get $1,500 in Bonus Bets

5 stars

Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets or First Bet Safety Net

5 stars

Get A $1,500 No Sweat Bet + NBA SGP Token

5 stars

Get A Bonus Bet Up to $1,000

5 stars

Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets

5 stars

Get Up To $250 Second Chance Bonus Bet

5 stars

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

21+ and present in OH. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, DC, IL, IN, LA, MD, MS, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY).

Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).

Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI).

All betting content on TheGameDay.com is exclusively intended for audience members 21 years and older who are permitted to gamble in legal states. The Game Day may earn revenue from site visitor referrals to betting services.

Responsible Gaming: Many sportsbooks offer ways to encourage responsible gaming, including the establishment of limits to deposits, spending, and time dedicated to betting.

The Game Day is a TGD Marketing Ltd. endeavor.