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Falcons vs Jaguars Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Sep 27, 2023

NFL Week 4 will see the Atlanta Falcons (2-1) facing the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) at Wembley Stadium in London, England, in the first of three games in the NFL London Series.

Meanwhile, fans will be treated to a full slate of football and compelling betting plays on Sunday.

Let’s take a deep dive and examine some odds, predictions, best bets, prop bets, and a same-game parlay for a terrific matchup between the Falcons and Jaguars.

Falcons vs Jaguars Odds

NFL odds used for this Atlanta vs Jacksonville preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Tuesday, September 26 at 9 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Jaguars (-162) • Falcons (+136)
  • Spread: Jaguars -3 (-115) • Falcons +3 (-105)
  • Total Points: Over 43 (-110) • Under 43 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Jaguars 23, Falcons 20

Falcons vs Jaguars Predictions

Score Pick: Falcons 21, Jaguars 19

After an impressive 31-21 victory over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1, the Jaguars offense has hit a wall over the past few weeks, losing back-to-back home games against the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans – the latter a 37-17 blowout.

To add insult to injury, both Trevor Lawrence and Calvin Ridley, two of Jacksonville’s most lethal offensive weapons, have struggled mightily over the past few games.

On Sunday, the Jags will be in a tough spot against a vastly improved Falcons defense that ranks fourth in the NFL in passing yards per game, seventh in points conceded, and eighth in yards per game, per The Football Database.

For a head coach who’s taken a ton of heat over the past few years, Arthur Smith’s men have displayed a ton of resilience and grit in the early part of the 2023 campaign.

A neutral ground combined with Jacksonville’s recent struggles makes this the picture-perfect trap game for the Jags. Look for Atlanta to eke out a win in London.

Falcons vs Jaguars Best Bets & Props

Falcons (+136)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

In a matchup that continues to trend towards the underdogs, I’m taking the Falcons to win outright at a whopping (+136) price point.

Although the 2023 season is still in its infancy, Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder has played some respectable football. He ranks fourth among active QBs in expected completion percentage (68.6%) and has recorded one interception through three weeks in what’s become a low-volume offense under Smith.

Notwithstanding last week against Detroit, Ridder has kept his composure thus far this season, playing competitive football under centre for the Falcons and contributing 41 rushing yards.

On the other side of the ball, Jacksonville have been underwhelming thus far, ranking 13th in both intended air yards per pass attempt and average depth of target, per Pro Football Reference.

For a team that entered this campaign with such high hopes after a berth in the AFC Divisional Round a season ago, it’s been anything but smooth sailing early on for Jacksonville.

All indications point to this being there for the taking for Atlanta. Lock in the Falcons on the moneyline in a terrific bounce-back spot as my NFL bet of the day.

Under 43 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

The total for this game is 43.0, meaning professional oddsmakers and sportsbooks are anticipating an uneventful, low-scoring tilt between the Falcons and Jaguars on Sunday.

The Jacksonville offense will likely sort itself over the course of a long and gruelling 17-game schedule given their talent pool, but at the moment, it’s in complete disarray.

For starters, Lawrence has been a shadow of the player he was in the latter part of 2022, ranking 25th in average intended air yards and 20th in completion percentage (64.6%), per NFL Next Gen Stats.

Lawrence’s struggles combined with a scrappy and athletic Atlanta defense that ranks fourth in the NFL in opponents’ completion percentage (58.33%) should play right into the hands of a low total in London.

I have no concerns laying a single-unit wager on the Under in this one.

Evan Engram Anytime Touchdown (+270)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

Despite his team being absolutely torched at the hands of the Texans last week, Jaguars tight end Evan Engram was one of the lone bright spots, hauling in seven of his eight targets for 67 receiving yards and leading Jacksonville in both receptions and targets.

After a rough start in Week 1, Engram has seen his volume (and role) in the Jags’ offense increase, posting an impressive 85.71 catch percentage and logging 6.6 expected yards after catch per reception, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.

Look for Engram to continue to build off his strong play over the past couple of weeks and find the end zone at an intriguing (+270) price point.

Falcons vs Jaguars Same Game Parlay

Falcons vs Jaguars SGP (+138)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

  • Jaguars Under 23.5 (-118)
  • Falcons +3 (-105)

My same game parlay between Atlanta and Jacksonville will target both the Jags’ team total of 23.5 points and the spread. Let’s start with the Jaguars’ team total.

The past few weeks have seen a hefty drop in production from Lawrence. What’s even more concerning has been the purpose of Ridley at wide receiver.

After eight receptions for 101 yards and a touchdown in Week 1, the former Alabama wideout has accumulated just 72 yards through the air, including two drops, and an abysmal 25% target share.

It’s likely that opposing defensive coordinators have zoned in and made the necessary adjustments against Ridley, which may account for Jacksonville’s pitiful offensive output in Weeks 2 and 3.

Until Ridley and the Jags’ offense find their rhythm, we’re going to see some struggles – especially in a less-than-favourable matchup against a confident-looking Atlanta defense.

Rounding out our same-game parlay is the Falcons against the spread at (+3.0).

Despite the disparity in talent at the QB position, which likely accounts for the Jaguars opening as three-point favourites, Ridder and the Falcons have demonstrated early this season that they’re ready for a fight and can find ways to win games if taken lightly.

Look for Atlanta to employ a run-heavy offense, which should slow the game down, eat a ton of clock, and subsequently keep Lawrence and Co. off the field. This is going to be a hotly contested matchup that may even come down to the final possession. Take the Falcons with the points in this one.

Combine the two plays at an enticing (+138) price point.

Author

Domenic Lunardo

Domenic is a freelance sportswriter at The Game Day. Previously, he wrote for The Hockey Writers, Prime Time Sports Talk, and Faceoff Sports Network. Over the past few years, Domenic has provided analysis more frequently in the sports betting industry and maintains an active presence on Twitter, primarily posting daily betting cards across the NHL, NFL, MLB, NBA, college basketball, and soccer. Although Domenic has a diverse sporting background, he specializes in hockey and football.

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