Of all the games being played this weekend, only the Rams/Chiefs game has a more lopsided spread than the Texans/Dolphins game.
The Dolphins are favored at home by nearly two touchdowns and it is easy to see why. Miami is tied with Buffalo for first place in the AFC East with a 7-3 record, and Houston has a 1-8-1 record, which is the worst in the NFL.
Read below, to see how I take this into account for my Houston vs Miami best bets.
Texans vs Dolphins Odds
As of Tuesday, Nov. 22, the Dolphins are favored by 13 points at FanDuel and the point total has been set at 46.5 points.
Texans vs Dolphins Implied Totals
Dolphins 29.75, Texans 16.75
Based on the current Week 12 NFL odds, the bookmakers are expecting the Dolphins to feast on a weak Texans defense, and for the Texans to barely put up more than two touchdowns this weekend.
Texans vs Dolphins Pick of the Day
Read more on this Texans vs Dolphins bet below.
Texans vs Dolphins Prediction
Dolphins 35,Texans 10
I consider myself to be a contrarian by nature. I won’t swim on 100-degree days, and I eat ice cream in the winter. Betting-wise, I love big underdogs and betting on teams with injured players.
For the Texans/Dolphins game, I am going as conventional as possible by eating the chalk.
Even against bad teams, Houston can’t win. They lost to Washington 23-10 at home as only a three-point underdog last week. Against a strong team like the Dolphins, Houston should lose in a blowout.
Miami is coming fresh off a bye week where they should pick up where they left off. The Dolphins have wins against the Bills and Ravens this season, and in their last game, they beat the Browns 39-17.
Their offense, led by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, averages 25.2 points per game, the sixth-best mark in the NFL. Under Tagovailoa, they also average the most yards per pass attempt, and yards per completion in the league.
It’s not an exciting prediction, but I don’t see how the Dolphins can lose on Sunday.
Texans vs Dolphins Bet Tips
Here are a few Texans vs Dolphins betting trends to consider before making your bets:
- Dolphins opened at -11 and have only moved to -13.
- Dolphins might be 7-3 straight up .but are only 5-5 against the spread.
- Texans are 4-5-1 ATS, despite a 1-8-1 overall record.
Texans vs Dolphins Best Bets
Dolphins -6.5 (-250) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Dolphins should easily win, and the -13 regular spread is attractive, but I like their alt line of -6.5 (-250) better. The second-most common margin of victory in the NFL is seven as 9.3% of games are decided by exactly seven points.
Even though this is baked into the price, I could see the Texans covering the regular spread with a meaningless touchdown in the fourth quarter.
Before placing this bet, get the best Texans promo codes.
Dolphins: Over 14.5 1H Points (+105) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
As a heavy favorite, the Dolphins’ offense should get off to a hot start. That I why I am betting that they will score Over 14.5 points in the first half.
They are more likely to play aggressively in the first half before they build up a lead than in the second half when they are trying to protect it. The -6.5-point first-half spread is appealing, but the -140 juice isn’t worth the squeeze.
That is why my favorite angle for playing the Dolphins having a successful first half is to bet on them going Over 14.5 team points.
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Texans vs Dolphins Props
Check out the best Texans vs Dolphins player prop bets this week with our props comparison tool. Click on “Show More Games" below to find the Houston vs Miami game and see all of its prop bets.