Dolphins vs Texans Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Aug 18, 2023

The Miami Dolphins and Houston Texans head into their second preseason game in different (and surprising directions). The Texans are coming off a road win against the New England Patriots, while the Dolphins are coming off a 19-3 loss at the hands of the Atlanta Falcons.

While preseason results are by no means predictive, there will likely be some carryover from each team’s performance last week into this week’s matchup. The Dolphins are still dealing with some injury maintenance, while the Texans are working on building a foundation.

Both of those factors loom large as we head into Week 2 of the preseason.

Dolphins vs Texans Odds

NFL odds used for this Miami vs Houston preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Thursday, Aug. 17, at noon ET.

  • Moneyline: Texans (-162) • Dolphins (+136)
  • Spread: Texans -3 (-110) • Dolphins +3 (-110)
  • Total Points: Over 39.5 (-110) • Under 39.5 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Texas 21.25, Dolphins 18.25

Dolphins vs Texans Predictions

Score Pick: Texans 21, Dolphins 17

The Texans’ win against the Patriots wasn’t exactly noteworthy in that the Patriots ran an extremely basic offense behind what would essentially be their second/third-string offensive line, but the win was still noteworthy considering how young the Texans are – and how bad they were last year. While C.J. Stroud experienced some growing pains, Davis Mills and Case Keeenum looked good in relief, and Tank Dell was one of the more promising Preseason Week 1 rookies.

The Dolphins are in more of a build-up toward the regular season mode as they deal with injuries to Jalen Ramsey, Jeff Wilson Jr, and others. They’re also playing it safe with Tua Tagovailoa as they attempt to keep him concussion-free for this season.

Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel has said Tagovailoa will play during the preseason, but it doesn’t sound like a return to action against the Texans is in the cards.

While the Dolphins would likely win a regular season game between these two teams, the Dolphins look to be using the preseason as more of a slow ramp-up to the regular season while the young Texans are more in prove-it mode. With more of their starters likely to play, I’m looking at the Texans to pull this one out at home.

Dolphins vs Texans Best Bets & Props

Texans -3 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

The Texans are playing with more of a full roster than the Dolphins are at this point and are treating the preseason as more of a proving ground than the Dolphins. The young Texans roster has a lot of position battles to iron out, rookies to integrate, and culture to engrain.

This line is essentially telling us the teams are even as the Texans are the home team, but the Dolphins aren’t going to roll out a roster that is anything close to what they’ll roll out for the regular season.

We’ll likely see a lot of Mike White and rookie De’Von Achane this week, and while both are promising players, they’re also part of the lineup that only put up three points against the Falcons last week. We’ll need to keep an eye on Tagovailoa’s status, but this line may increase even more if Tagovailoa is ruled out so I think there’s some value in getting in on the Texans at -3 now as our NFL bet of the day.

Texans Win by 1–6 (+370)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

If you subscribe to the idea that the Texans will win this game, this bet provides a ton of value. As mentioned above, the Texans have a lot of things going for them – health, game location, purpose of their preseason, and even momentum.

Those things aren’t exactly ironclad as the preseason isn’t the most predictable part of the year, but we can only go off the information we have.

If news comes out that Tagovailoa (and some of the Dolphins starters like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle) aren’t playing and/or are only playing a series or two, I expect this line to move, so there’s a lot of value at locking it in now before any of that (presumably) happens.

Under 39.5 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units

Defenses are notoriously ahead of offenses during the preseason, and these two teams both “proved” that adage (albeit in a small sample) last week as both games the Texans and Dolphins were involved in hit the Under.

While the Texans were able to muster 20 points against a good Patriots defense, the Dolphins struggled to manufacture points as they focused on running the ball against the Falcons.

I expect the Texans to be able to score similarly to last week as Stroud should theoretically fare better than he did in his first NFL action, but Miami will still be dealing with the same cast of characters unless McDaniel comes out and says Tagovailoa and the starters are going to play more. Unless that happens (and I’d be surprised if it does based on current reports), look for the Dolphins to again struggle to hold up their end of potentially hitting the over this week.

Dolphins vs Texans Same Game Parlay

No Same Game Parlays are available for this game, but this section will be updated if they become available.


Nick Roberts

Nick is an analyst at The Game Day who writes about the NFL and NBA from a betting perspective. He previously contributed to RotoWorld, Rotowire, and The New York Times. Nick resides in New Jersey.

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