Patriots vs Cowboys Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Sep 26, 2023

While the Patriots won last week and the Cowboys lost, both teams come into this game with major doubts and things to prove.

The Patriots escaped a must-win game against the Jets with a 15-10 victory that many are calling a moral defeat. Despite avoiding their first 0-3 start in the Bill Belichick era, the Patriots still almost lost to a Zach Wilson-led squad on a last-second Hail Mary attempt and have a lot of question marks.

The Cowboys, on the other hand, are licking their wounds after a surprise 28-16 loss to an Arizona Cardinals squad that looks poised for the top pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The Cowboys looked like the class of the NFC after rolling both New York teams in Weeks 1 and 2, but they have their own doubts and question marks.

Patriots vs Cowboys Odds

NFL odds used for this New England vs Dallas preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Tuesday, Sept. 26, at 11 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Cowboys (-285) • Patriots (+230)
  • Spread: Cowboys -7 (-112) • Patriots +7 (-108)
  • Total Points: Over 43.5 (-110) • Under 43.5 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Cowboys 25.25, Patriots 18.25

Patriots vs Cowboys Predictions

Score Pick: Cowboys 23, Patriots 17

While the Cowboys may have rolled the Giants and Jets, they looked like a completely different team in their loss to the Cardinals.

Was it simply a letdown game? Or is the loss of Trevon Diggs going to have more of an impact on the defense than expected? The answer is a little bit of both, but the loss to Arizona raises at least a few red flags for Mike McCarthy’s squad.

After playing the Eagles and Dolphins tight in Weeks 1 and 2 and having a chance to win or tie each game on the final drive, the Patriots were unable to do much during a rainy win against the Jets. Their offense only put up 13 points and their sole touchdown came against a blown coverage on the equivalent of a trick play to Pharoah Brown on his first target of the season.

The Cowboys have the advantage of being at home this week so I’m giving them the nod here, but these teams are seemingly a lot closer than what we would have thought a week ago.

Patriots vs Cowboys Best Bets & Props

Patriots +7 (-108)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 2 Unit

While history doesn’t predict the future, a trend is making me lock this in as my NFL bet of the day. The Patriots have only played three games this season, but all three have been decided by seven points or less.

New England doesn’t have the horses to put up big points, but it still has the greatest head coach of our generation to (almost always) keep things close. While it’s easy to brush off the dominating defensive performance against Wilson, the Patriots’ defense held the Eagles to just one offensive touchdown and held the high-flying Dolphins to “just” 24 points two weeks ago.

I don’t know if the Patriots can muster more than 20 points as Micah Parsons may set up residence in New England’s backfield, but their defense should be able to limit Dak Prescott — especially if he looks like he did last week, going 25-for-40 with 249 passing yards, one touchdown, and one interception.

Cowboys: Win By 1-6 (+320)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

This wager rewards us with nice odds for an outcome that is more likely than not to occur. I understand if you don’t believe in New England’s offense (I don’t blame you – I don’t either), but I believe in their defense.

They’re one of the better defensive units in the league, and rookie Christian Gonzalez has held A.J. Brown, Tyreek Hill, and Garrett Wilson in check. If he can do the same against CeeDee Lamb, the Patriots should stay close to the Cowboys this week.

Patriots: Under 1.5 Touchdowns (+135)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units

I don’t mean to get too simplistic, but the Patriots haven’t had much success on offense this season.

They’ve put up some yards and points while both the Eagles and Dolphins took their foot off the gas pedal to preserve big leads, but their receivers have struggled to gain any type of separation and they don’t have a single player who scares opposing defenses.

With the aforementioned offensive line having some massive question marks, Mac Jones isn’t going to have much time to throw this week.

Under 43.5 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

The Patriots haven’t scored more than 17 points in a game all season, and there haven’t been any signs in the first three weeks to think they’re going to turn things around on the road against a stout Cowboys defense.

If we go through that (inexact) thought exercise, it gives us 25-26 Cowboys points to play with here. While the Cowboys have a good offense, the Patriots have held better offenses in check and looked absolutely dominant last week.

Prescott is going to have an uphill battle to put up more than 24 points against a stout New England defense.

Patriots vs Cowboys Same Game Parlay

Patriots vs Cowboys SGP (+275)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

  • Cowboys (-260)
  • Cowboys Under 24.5 (-110)

If you’re on board with me on a few of the above bets, this one gives us a nice return on taking the Cowboys to win (a very likely scenario) while putting some belief in New England’s defense.

The Cowboys should be able to handle the Patriots at home (again, the Patriots are a Randall Cobb fingertip away from being 0-3), and while their offense doesn’t look much better than the Matt Patricia-led unit last year, their defense is arguably top-five.


Nick Roberts

Nick is an analyst at The Game Day who writes about the NFL and NBA from a betting perspective. He previously contributed to RotoWorld, Rotowire, and The New York Times. Nick resides in New Jersey.

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