The Atlanta Falcons (5-6) head to Washington to take on the Commanders (6-5) in a pivotal matchup between two prospective NFC Wild Card teams.
The Falcons are a run-heavy offense that has been able to overachieve, as many prognosticators expected them to be among the worst teams in the NFL this season.
The Commanders have now won four of their last five games, led by an improving defense that could get Chase Young back for this game.
We could see a run-heavy, low-scoring game here. With that in mind, let’s look at the Atlanta vs Washington betting tips for Week 12.
Falcons vs Commanders Odds
Falcons vs Commanders odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of 10 am EST on Nov. 21st.
The Commanders open as 3.5-point home favorites in our NFL Week 12 NFL odds, which highlights how points may be hard to come by in this one, as it could be tough for a larger winning margin.
The total comes in at 43 points, giving us some value on the Under, as both of these teams like to control the clock with their running game.
Falcons vs Commanders Implied Totals
Commanders 23.25, Falcons 19.75
Bookmakers project this to be a close game that may be slow-paced due to each team’s run-heavy tendencies. The Commanders defense is seemingly improving every week, which is reflected in these implied totals.
Falcons vs Commanders Pick of the Day
Read more on this Falcons vs Commanders bet below.
Falcons vs Commanders Prediction
Commanders 24, Falcons 16
The Falcons are a run-heavy offense that ranks ninth in rush DVOA, per Football Outsiders. The problem is that the Commanders have stifled opposing running games this season, coming in at second in rush DVOA. We could see an inefficient ground game for Atlanta.
The other issue for the Falcons is that Kyle Pitts suffered an injury in Week 11, leaving his status in doubt for this game. That would leave a pass-catching corps consisting of rookie Drake London along with Olamide Zacchaeus and Damiere Byrd.
That’s bad news against an improving Commanders pass defense, which has held opposing passers to only 6.32 yards per attempt in their last five games. What was once a weakness is now a strength. Washington also ranks 11th in Adjusted Sack Rate, so their pass-rush is also above average.
Atlanta grades out as one of the worst teams in pass protection, as they’re tied for the third-worst mark in Adjusted Sack Rate. If Young is back for this game, that’s even worse for them. We could see Marcus Mariota under duress early and often in this one.
Falcons vs Commanders Bet Tips
Here are a few Falcons vs Commanders betting trends to consider before making your bets:
- The Falcons are 7-4 against the spread, while Washington is 6-4-1.
- The Under is 5-6 in Atlanta games, but 7-4 in Commanders games.
- The books have not yet caught up to the Pitts injury and Young potential return.
Falcons vs Commanders Best Bets
Under 43 Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The safest play here is to ride with the Under. We can project the Falcons to struggle on offense against this improving Commanders defense. They’ll also be run-heavy, especially with Pitts out for this game. That will slow things down, leading to a better chance for the Under.
We also have to consider that Washington has also been run-heavy lately, leaning on Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson since Taylor Heinicke took over at quarterback. The Commanders will look to exploit a Falcons defense that ranks 24th in rush DVOA.
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Commanders -3.5 (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
This is a bet on the mismatch between the Commanders pass-rush and Falcons pass protection, compounded by Pitts’ absence. There’s only one viable threat in this Atlanta passing game right now in London. Washington should be able to slow down this offense.
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Falcons vs Commanders Props
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