After a hot start, Derek Carr and the retooled New Orleans Saints have lost four of the last five.
But the Saints seemed to find something late last Monday against the Jacksonville Jaguars before a heartbreaking loss.
Things aren’t much better for the Indianapolis Colts, with quarterback Anthony Richardson out for the season with a shoulder injury and having lost three of four.
Here are our predictions and best bets for New Orleans vs Indianapolis.
Saints vs Colts Odds
NFL odds used for this New Orleans vs Indianapolis preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of October 25 at 4 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Saints (-112) • Colts (-108)
- Spread: Saints -1 (-105) • Colts +1 (-115)
- Total Points: Over 43.5 (-110) • Under 43.5 (-110)
- Implied Score: Saints 22.25, Colts 21.25
Saints vs Colts Predictions
Score Pick: Saints 24, Colts 17
The Saints defense, for all intents and purposes, has played well this season. The unit fell asleep for a half in Jacksonville, but outside of that, things have been pretty good.
New Orleans was able to shut out New England and slow a hot C.J. Stroud prior to last week. On the year, it sits fourth in EPA per play against.
Indy’s offense was already a work in progress, and under Gardner Minshew, the passing attack has only gotten worse.
Add in a defense that has allowed 37 or more points in back-to-back weeks and this game should go to the short road favorite.
Saints vs Colts Best Bets & Props
Saints (-110)
BetMGM • WAGER: 1 unit
A lot of the chatter before this game will be about Chris Olave, who will not play for the Saints following his recent arrest.
While that may impact the game in theory, Olave had been struggling over the last four weeks, catching just 47.2% of his targets – including some back-breaking drops against the Jaguars.
Taysom Hill and an emerging Michael Thomas got the passing game going in Week 7 and should be plenty capable of getting to a secondary ranked 15th in EPA per dropback and that lost starting corner JuJu Brents last week.
I trust this defense to do its job against a Colts offense that looks lost and will try to pound the rock against a unit ranked fifth in success rate against the run.
The Saints offense looks to be settling in under Carr, and it should be able to do more than enough to give the defense a lead to work with, making New Orleans our NFL bet of the day.
Under 43.5 (-110)
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
We’ve covered how good this Saints defense is and how poorly the Colts have played of late without Richardson. On top of that, without a rushing attack Indianapolis can rely on, points will be hard to come by.
We can expect to see a lot of painful drives out of the Colts. Not only should they struggle to move the ball, they should eat plenty of clock whil trying to problem-solve. The Colts rank dead last in the league in pace, and the Saints are just five spots ahead.
While things like pace, the absence of Olave, and the Saints’ excellence on defense are baked into the line, this number is not nearly low enough. I’ll play this a full point lower at 42.5 and point out that the Under cashed in all three games in which the Saints were road favorites.
Saints vs Colts Same-Game Parlay
Saints vs Colts SGP (+360)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units
- Saints (-112)
- Under 43.5 (-110)
- 1H Under 21.5 (-122)
We’ve already covered the first two legs, so let’s juice this up a bit with another game prop.
The Saints’ offense was nowhere to be found in the first half last week with just six points, and that followed a lackluster 10-point showing in the first half of their loss to the Texans.
All told, New Orleans is just 22nd in first-half scoring, and while the Colts’ defense should relent given its form and big injury in the secondary, we have to trust what we have seen out of Dennis Allen’s bunch this year.
New Orleans also ranks fifth in points-against in the first half of games, even after last week’s showing, which makes me feel even better about double-dipping on a low-scoring affair.
