Colts vs Ravens Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Sep 20, 2023

The Indianapolis Colts travel to face the Baltimore Ravens in Week 3 with both coming off road victories against divisional opponents.

Indianapolis (1-1) beat the Houston Texans, 31-20, while the Ravens (2-0) held off the Cincinnati Bengals 27-24.

Two of the top dual-threat quarterbacks in the NFL could face off, but Colts rookie Anthony Richardson is questionable for Sunday while in the concussion protocol.

Here are our predictions and best bets for this game.

Colts vs Ravens Odds

NFL odds used for this Indianapolis vs Baltimore preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Sept. 20 at 10:00 AM ET.

  • Moneyline: Ravens (-355) • Colts (+280)
  • Spread: Ravens -8 (-108) • Colts +8 (-112)
  • Total Points: Over 44.5 (-112) • Under 44.5 (-108)
  • Implied Score: Ravens 26.25, Colts 18.25

Colts vs Ravens Predictions

Score Pick: Ravens 27, Colts 13

The Ravens are the superior team on both sides of the ball and are the only team in the NFL to rank inside the top-five in both offensive and defensive DVOA. In addition, they are the only team in the top 10 in pass and run DVOA on both sides of the ball.

Indianapolis enters this game unsure who will line up under center on Sunday. Richardson has been dynamic, accounting for 354 total yards and four touchdowns in just over four quarters of play. However, his absence would limit the Colts’ ability to make big plays.

Gardner Minshew is a capable backup, but Indianapolis doesn’t like to throw the ball downfield. Both Richardson and Minshew have an aDOT (average depth of target) below five yards.The only quarterback with a lower aDOT than either Colts signal-caller is Justin Fields.

I just do not see the Colts sustaining enough drives to put up points against a Ravens defense that has held each of its opponents below 300 total yards of total offense.

Colts vs Ravens Best Bets & Props

Colts Under 17.5 (-118)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

The Ravens may have given up 24 points last week, but that does not illustrate how good their defense was. They allowed a punt return for a touchdown and went into prevention mode as the Bengals scored a late touchdown. Those touchdowns are the only ones Baltimore has allowed in 19 drives thus far this year.

The Colts do not have enough offensive firepower to match up with this defense, especially if Richardson is out. They have only had three plays go for more than 20 yards through two games. Baltimore has permitted a total of two such plays in their two victories.

Hence the Colts will struggle against the Ravens’ formidable defense and fall Under 17.5 for my NFL bet of the day.

Ravens Win Both Halves (+140)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

I like this bet as an alternative to laying the points with the Ravens. You would have to lay 12.5 points to get a similar price. With this bet, we just need the better team to live up to billing for 60 minutes.

This game is a mismatch in Baltimore’s favor. The Colts secondary looks ill-equipped to face up against Lamar Jackson and Baltimore’s pass catchers. Left cornerback Darrell Baker Jr. has allowed the second-most yards per route run in the NFL, and slot corner Kenny Moore has ceded completions on 90 percent of targets in his direction.

If Indianapolis had Richardson and Jonathan Taylor in the fold, the Colts might be able to challenge Baltimore’s defense. But it is hard for me to expect a team led by Minshew and Zack Moss to put up much of a fight against a Ravens defense that has given up just 4.8 yards per pass attempt and 3.6 yards per rush through two games.

Ravens Score Longest Touchdown (-170)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

I normally do not like to lay a ton of juice on prop bets, but I think the juice is worth the squeeze in this case. Michael Pittman Jr. is the Colts’ only bonafide playmaker, assuming Richardson is out.

Baltimore’s focus will be on making the Colts drive the length of the field. The Ravens defense has yet to allow a touchdown of longer than four yards this season.

Baltimore has plenty of big-play threats, including Jackson, Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr. The Colts defense is not to be feared.

It has already allowed both a passing and rushing touchdown of over 20 yards thus far in 2023. The Ravens will bust at least one long touchdown in this game.

Colts vs Ravens Same-Game Parlay

Colts vs Ravens SGP (+230)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units

  • Ravens - 6.5 (-150)
  • Under 51.5 (-250)
  • Ravens Touchdowns Over 2.5 (-185)
  • Colts Touchdowns Under 2.5 (-280)

The Ravens should win this game fairly easily. I lowered the spread to 6.5 to prevent against a backdoor cover a la the Rams against San Francisco last week.

Both teams are neutral in terms of offensive pace. The Ravens defense limits big plays, and it will make the Colts sustain drives in order to score points. Even if Minshew and company are successful, that will take time off the clock, lending itself to the Under.

Baltimore has already scored six red-zone touchdowns this season, and they can continue to find their way into the end zone, particularly through the air. The Colts secondary is among the poorest groups in the NFL.

On the other side, I would be shocked if Gardner Minshew could orchestrate more than one or two touchdown drives against this Ravens defense. The lack of playmakers at the skill positions should prohibit them from scoring more than two touchdowns in this game.

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