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Colts vs Jaguars Predictions | Best Bets & Odds

Posted: Sep 14, 2022Last updated: Sep 14, 2022

The Indianapolis Colts have put together back-to-back embarrassing games. The Colts were knocked out of the playoffs in Week 18 last season at the hands of the Jaguars. After making a major quarterback change in the offseason, they proceeded to tie with Houston in Week 1. 

The Colts now go back to Jacksonville, where they haven’t covered since 2014. The Jaguars, meanwhile, blew a late lead in Week 1 to start the season 0-1. 

Do the Colts break the streak? Or will the Jaguars continue to embarrass their divisional rival? 

Read on for our Indianapolis vs Jacksonville predictions and best bets. 

Colts vs Jaguars Odds

BetRivers Sportsbook opened with the line at Indianapolis -4.5, and sharp money quickly moved to it -4. That’s the smallest favorite Indianapolis has been over Jacksonville in six straight rivalry games – Indianapolis won the last battle before that streak 33-13, for what it’s worth. 

The total opened at 45.5 and almost immediately was bet up to 47. Some buyback money has come in, but I expect it to close between 46.5 and 47. BetRivers has the number at 47 at the time of writing. 

Take a look at the best Colts odds and Jaguars odds for the 2022 NFL season.

Colts vs Jaguars Implied Score

Colts 25.5, Jaguars 21.5

Vegas expects the Jaguars to score just over three touchdowns, while the Colts out-pace them slightly. With both teams finishing in the low-20s, Vegas isn’t overwhelmingly high on either offense. 

Colts vs Jaguars Pick of the Day

Read more on this Colts vs Jaguars bet below.

Colts vs Jaguars Matchup

The story for both teams is the quarterback. 

The Colts have been missing consistency at the position since Andrew Luck’s surprising retirement. Matt Ryan needs to be the savior in Indianapolis, and he was very underwhelming in Week 1. 

Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence is the savior in Jacksonville, and he played much better in Week 1. His advanced statistics went from worst in the NFL to average. That’s progress. 

Whichever quarterback plays better on Sunday will likely decide the spread. 

The status of Colts’ linebacker Shaquille Leonard is still in question after he missed Week 1. I wouldn’t put too much stock in that with how talented the Colts’ defense is. 

Colts vs Jaguars Prediction

Jaguars 23, Colts 21

The Colts are a talented team. They have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL with arguably the best running back. Their defense has legit front-seven talent and they made a huge upgrade with Stephon Gilmore in the secondary. 

The Colts finished with 517 total yards while holding the Texans to just 299 yards, but they struggled on third down, had twice as many penalties, and couldn’t convert in the red zone. There’s positive regression coming for Indianapolis, but Frank Reich needs to be more aggressive in the early season with his decisions and play-calling. 

In fact, coach Reich is always overly conservative in the early season. Reich is 0-5 straight up and against the spread with five different quarterbacks in Week 1 as head coach of the Colts. Overall, the Colts are 1-13-1 ATS in Week 1 since 2008. 

I’m not banking on change coming in Week 2. Ryan didn’t look good, and the Colts are going to fail to cover against Jacksonville again without a significant upgrade under center. Ryan finished Week 1 with the 21st-highest EPA per play. 

Meanwhile, Lawrence looked a lot better. He finished Week 1 15th in EPA per play and tossed for 275 yards. The Jags rushed for 123 yards and a score on just 18 carries, too, good for almost seven yards per carry. Lawrence was let down by his defense in the fourth quarter. 

With the Colts coming to the Florida heat and their offense looking stagnant, I’m betting the Jaguars. To reiterate, the Colts have not beaten the Jaguars in Jacksonville since 2014, and I don’t think it happens here. At the very least, it shouldn’t happen by over four points. 

Colts vs Jaguars Bet Tips

  • The Jaguars are 6-0 ATS and SU against the Colts at home since 2015.
  • The Under is 5-1 in Jacksonville’s last six home games and 4-0 in the Colts’ last four road games.
  • The Under is also 6-0 in the Colts’ last six games as a favorite and 5-0 in the Jaguars’ last five games as a home underdog.

Colts vs Jaguars Best Bets

Jaguars +4 (-109) at BetRivers Sportsbook

Wager: 1 Unit

Once again: The Jaguars have covered six straight games against the Colts at home. This won’t be any different.

The key will be Lawrence shredding Indianapolis’ safeties and secondary cornerbacks. Just stay away from Stephon Gilmore.

Also, the Jaguars should lean on the run more after finishing Week 1 sixth in the NFL in rushing EPA per play. Doug Pederson is a smart coach and will hopefully adjust.

I expect continued early-season disappointment from coach Riech and another failed cover in Jacksonville. Especially with how hot the stadium is in early September.

Before placing this bet, be sure to consult our best Jacksonville Jaguars promotions.

Colts vs Jaguars Props

I’m keeping an eye on these props once they hit sportsbooks.

Christian Kirk: Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-110 or better) 

Christian Kirk got 12 targets last week. He only caught half of them and still managed almost 120 receiving yards.

Kirk is a big-play threat that posted career-high marks in receiving yards (982) and catch rate (74.8%) last season. If he’s the No. 1 option with an improved Lawrence, Kirk can dominate this season.

Before placing this bet, be sure to consult our best Indianapolis Colts promos.

Colts vs Jaguars Parlays

I would also target a parlay anchored around these three legs:

Best Same-Game Parlay

  • Jaguars Moneyline
  • Under 47
  • Matt Ryan: Over 0.5 Interceptions

Stay tuned for more specifics once player props are released for Colts vs Jaguars.

Author

Tanner McGrath

Tanner McGrath joined The Game Day to cover the NFL but is beginning to branch out in other areas as well. He can write about anything but is especially passionate about Major League Baseball (go Red Sox!) and NCAA Basketball. He’s a McGill University grad and former (Canadian) Division-I alpine ski racer who now spends his time drinking beer and betting home underdogs.

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