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Dolphins vs Chargers Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Sep 10, 2023

This is one of the marquee matchups in Week 1. The Dolphins and Chargers are two of the favorites to make the playoffs in the AFC and potentially represent their conference in the Super Bowl. It’s a battle between two young quarterbacks and a couple of dynamic offenses.

Let’s dive into the odds and best bets for this matchup between the Dolphins and Chargers.

Dolphins vs Chargers Odds

NFL odds used for this Miami vs Los Angeles preview were found at Caesars Sportsbook and are current as of August 18 at 4:00 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Chargers (-150) • Dolphins (+126)
  • Spread: Chargers -3 (-110) • Dolphins +3 (-110)
  • Total Points: Over 50 (-110) • Under 50 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Chargers 26.5, Dolphins 23.5

Dolphins vs Chargers Predictions

Score Pick: Chargers 27, Dolphins 21

The two teams played in December last season, and the Chargers won that matchup 23-17. Justin Herbert had a dominant showing in that contest, with 367 yards passing and a touchdown.

The Dolphins averaged 23.8 points per game, and the Chargers averaged 23.4 points. The Dolphins’ numbers are a touch skewed since their starting QB, Tua Tagovailoa, was in and out of the lineup with a concussion last season.

Defensively, the two sides were near the bottom of the league in points allowed per game. The Dolphins conceded 24.1 points per game, and the Chargers were only slightly better, allowing 23.1 points per game. Dolphins CB Jalen Ramsey will be out for Miami until December, which is a huge blow to their secondary. The Chargers have a lot of weapons in the passing game, including new addition rookie WR Quentin Johnston.

The game total is at 50, but it will be more closely contested than expected, with the Chargers winning late in the fourth quarter.

Dolphins vs Chargers Best Bets & Props

Chargers -3 (-110)

Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

The Chargers offense looks to take a step forward this season with new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. This will open up the downfield passing for Herbert. Per PFF, the Dolphins only have the 20th-ranked offensive line and could be in trouble against this Chargers’ pass rush. The Chargers generated a lot of pressure against the Dolphins front unit last season, which could continue here in Week 1.

Back the home team to cover the 3-point spread in this contest. This is my NFL bet of the day.

Under 50 (-110)

Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

Despite the firepower of the two offenses, this game will go Under the game total of 50. The Chargers were 9th in the NFL in time of possession last season and liked to run the ball with Austin Ekeler. If the Chargers have the lead, I could see them slowing the game down, leaving the Dolphins with fewer possessions to score.

Back the Under in this contest.

Dolphins vs Chargers Same Game Parlay

Dolphins vs Chargers SGP (+195)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units

  • Chargers (-150)
  • Under 55.5 (-195)
  • Chargers Over 20.5 (-170)

The Chargers are the better team in the trenches, so I give them the edge in this matchup. There is no value in taking their moneyline at -150, but tacking it onto a same game parlay opens up opportunities. As I mentioned above, I don’t expect this game to be crazy high-scoring, so taking an alternate under adds to the odds of the parlay.

With Moore calling plays on offense, the Chargers offense should throw the ball more. I expect them to score at least three touchdowns in this game and go Over their 20.5 team total.

Author

Ani Sridhar

Ani Sridhar is an NBA and soccer betting analyst at The Gameday as well as a producer at SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Residing in NY, but originally from Washington D.C and a University of Maryland alum, Ani is a long-time (and occasionally suffering) fan of all the Washington sports teams. He loves TV and movies, so just holler if you ever need someone to join your bar trivia team.

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