The Cowboys have been the best NFL team through two weeks. In fact, Dallas is first in total Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Conversely, the Cardinals have tried to stay in both games but failed to win either. They had a 20-0 lead in the first half against the Giants and lost 31-28.
The slide will likely continue in a lopsided matchup. Let’s look at the best bets in a probable blowout.
Cowboys vs Cardinals Odds
NFL odds used for this Dallas vs Arizona preview were found at Caesars Sportsbook and are current as of September 20 and 8:30 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Cowboys (-700) • Cardinals (+500)
- Spread: Cowboys -12 (-110) • Cardinals +12 (-110)
- Total Points: Over 43 (-110) • Under 43 (-110)
- Implied Score: Cowboys 27.5, Cardinals 15.5
Cowboys vs Cardinals Predictions
Score Pick: Cowboys 31, Cardinals 10
The Cowboys and Cardinals have covered the spread in each of their contests. So, something has to give. Dallas was far more impressive in two blowout wins than Arizona was in two close defeats.
The Cardinals entered the year projected to be one of the worst teams in the league, and the Cowboys look like the team to beat in the NFL. Dallas has the best point differential, outscoring their opponents by 60 points – doubling the second-highest mark.
Their pass rush will likely pose Joshua Dobbs and Arizona’s offense problems the entire game. Pro Football Focus (PFF) ranks the Cowboys second in pass rush and the Cardinals 18th in pass protection. Additionally, according to Pro Football Reference, Dallas has the second-highest pressure rate (32.1%).
The Cardinals mustered only 16 points against Washington’s rock-solid defense and above-average pass rush in Week 1 and will find the sledding tougher against Dallas’s elite defense. Dallas’s offense should routinely be staked to good field position thanks to their elite offense, giving them a golden opportunity for another blowout victory this week.
Cowboys vs Cardinals Best Bets & Props
Tony Pollard Over 74.5 Rushing Yards (-117)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
Tony Pollard is a powerhouse. He’s third in the NFL in rush attempts (39) and has played 64% of Dallas’ offensive snaps in two games.
Pollard’s snap share is a critical number. He’s played at least 65% of the club’s offensive snaps five times in his career and averaged 81.8 rushing yards in those contests.
The game script should be perfect for Pollard to pile up rush attempts and rushing yards. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Cowboys have run 89 plays when leading by at least eight points and rushed on 62% of those plays. Thus, Pollard should erupt on a hefty workload, making this the NFL bet of the day.
Cowboys Alt Spread -17 (+152)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units
The Cowboys won by 40 on the road in Week 1 and 20 points at home in Week 2. Meanwhile, the Cardinals lost by only four and three points, respectively, in the previous two weeks.
Still, Arizona comes into this contest after scoring only eight points and yielding 31 in their last two quarters of football against an opponent inferior to the Cowboys. The transitive properties can often get bettors into trouble, but, again, Dallas’s elite pass rush should propel them to a massive victory since Dobbs struggles under pressure.
Dobbs was tied for PFF’s 21st-ranked passer in 2022 among quarterbacks who dropped back at least 15 times against pressure. Additionally, he’s PFF’s 18th-ranked passer this year among quarterbacks with at least 15 dropbacks under pressure.
Jake Ferguson Anytime Touchdown (+280)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.25 units
The Cardinals haven’t allowed a receiving touchdown to a tight end this year. However, according to The 33rd Team, they’ve coughed up the third-most receiving yards (136) and tied for the eighth-most receptions (eight) allowed to the position in 2023 after struggling mightily against tight ends in 2022.
Dallas has a massive implied total and will put the ball in the paint if they live up to the betting projection, and Jake Ferguson can get in on the fun. According to FantasyPros, Ferguson has five targets and one touchdown on Dak Prescott’s seven pass attempts inside the 10-yard line this season.
Cowboys vs Cardinals Same-Game Parlay
Cowboys vs Cardinals SGP (+349)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.25 units
- DAL -12 (-110)
- James Conner Under 54.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
- Tony Pollard Over 75.4 Rushing Yards (-117)
The first and third legs of this SGP have been covered already, leaving the second leg as the only one that needs to be discussed. James Conner has rushed for 168 yards in two games this year and deserves his flowers.
Sadly, the buck will likely stop here in a dreadful matchup and probable negative game script. The Cowboys have held running backs to 3.6 yards per carry in 2023. Finally, Dallas’ opponents have run 94 plays when trailing by at least eight points this year and passed on 68% of those plays.
So, if the Cowboys are clobbering the Cardinals, the opportunities will be robust for Pollard and sparse for Conner. Thus, the three legs are correlated.
