The Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Buccaneers both took care of business at home in the NFC’s wild-card round. Detroit squeaked past the Los Angeles Rams, 24-23, while Tampa dismantled the Philadelphia Eagles, 32-9.
The two division winners square off in the divisional round on Sunday, with a date in the NFC Championship Game at stake. Both teams have quarterbacks who are former No. 1 overall draft picks and who have enjoyed a career renaissance with their new clubs.
Which team will emerge victorious, and who should we bet on? Here are my NFL divisional predictions for this matchup.
Buccaneers vs Lions Odds
NFL odds used for this Tampa Bay vs Detroit preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook and are current as of Wednesday, Jan. 17, at 8 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Lions (-265) • Buccaneers (+215)
- Spread: Lions -6 (-118) • Buccaneers +6 (-102)
- Total Points: Over 48.5 (-112) • Under 48.5 (-108)
- Implied Score: Lions 27.25, Buccaneers 21.25
Buccaneers vs Lions Predictions
Score Pick: Lions 24, Buccaneers 20
These teams squared off back in Week 6, with Detroit emerging victorious on the road by the score of 20-6.
Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield combined for 81 pass attempts in that game, and both teams will seek more offensive balance on Sunday than they had in the previous matchup.
David Montgomery left that game early for Detroit because of an injury, while Jahmyr Gibbs did not play.
Rachaad White had season-lows of seven carries and 26 rushing yards in the defeat, but both teams will want to establish some continuity on the ground early.
This is where Detroit has the biggest matchup advantage in this game. The Lions led the NFL in rush defense DVOA, while Tampa’s run offense was 28th.
Detroit will focus on stopping White early and rendering Tampa’s offense one-dimensional. If it can do that, it will have the edge on that side of the ball.
Tampa Bay will bring the blitz on passing downs and hope for a similar outcome as last week. Jalen Hurts was under pressure in less than 2.5 seconds 13 times on Monday.
However, Goff was blitzed more than any quarterback in the NFL this year. That experience under duress should benefit Detroit.
Buccaneers vs Lions Best Bets & Props
Rachaad White Under 16.5 Rush Attempts (-130)
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
For my first bet, I am going to take the Under on White’s total rush attempts. This is essentially a much more cost-efficient way to bet on the Lions’ moneyline.
White’s rushing attempts on a per-game basis are almost directly correlated to Tampa Bay’s win-loss record.
White has had at least 17 rushing attempts in nine of Tampa’s 10 wins this season, and he has 15 or fewer in seven of their eight losses.
The only time White had more than 15 carries in a loss was in a game in which the Buccaneers gave up 17 fourth-quarter points, including a 75-yard drive in the final 46 seconds of the game.
If you think the Lions win the game on Sunday (and I do), save yourself some unwanted juice and bet White’s rush-attempt prop instead.
I am taking the Under on 16.5 rushing attempts as my NFL bet of the day.
Jared Goff Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-130)
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
Todd Bowles is one of the most blitz-happy coaches in the NFL. Tampa Bay often lives by the blitz, as it did against the Eagles. The Bucs may also die by it.
The Buccaneers blitzed Goff on 20 dropbacks in Week 6. Goff responded with 171 yards on 19 attempts and two touchdowns.
Goff has usually performed better in the friendly confines of Ford Field than he has on the road. He threw multiple touchdown passes in six of eight home games, including three games with at least three touchdowns.
Meanwhile, the Buccaneers allowed five opposing quarterbacks to throw at least two touchdowns on the road compared to just two at home.
Goff will find a way to throw at least two touchdowns in this game.
Michael Badgley Under 7.5 Kicking Points (+100)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
Who doesn’t love a kicker prop! This bet is primarily because of Detroit’s aggressive philosophy on offense.
The Lions like to push the envelope and try to convert on fourth down rather than settling for field goals. They led the NFL in fourth-down tries in their opponent’s territory this season.
Michael Badgley has played five games as the team’s kicker, including last week. He has scored exactly six or seven points in all five games.
In that time, Badgley has only attempted more than one field goal in a game once. Last week’s 54-yarder was his only attempt of 40 yards or more, and Detroit was basically forced to kick in that spot, as it faced a 4th-and-17.
If the Lions only needed a few yards to convert, Dan Campbell would have tried to get the first down.
Badgley has also missed two extra points in his short stint as a Lion, so it would not be a shock to see Detroit attempt a two-point conversion at some point in the ball game.
There is a lot of value with this prop based on the team’s tendencies in the kicking game.
Buccaneers vs Lions Same-Game Parlay
Buccaneers vs Lions SGP (+850)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.25 units
- Lions (-265)
- Rachaad White Under 47.5 Rushing Yards (+130)
- Jared Goff Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-160)
- Michael Badgley Under 7.5 Kicking Points (+100)
The Detroit Lions will hold serve and win this game, and Goff will throw for multiple touchdowns. The Lions won’t trust Badgley in a big spot, so I am fading his props in this game.
The White yardage prop is the trickiest leg of this SGP because he is the team’s primary rusher.
However, it is more likely to hit than one might expect, considering how he has been used when the Buccaneers win as opposed to when they lose.
White exceeded 50 rushing yards in eight of Tampa’s 10 wins, including last week’s playoff win. However, he has had 42 or fewer rushing yards in six of their eight losses.
If Detroit wins, White is not likely to gain a ton of yards on the ground. But if that yardage number is simply too low for your liking, DraftKings does offer alternatives.
You can raise White’s total rushing yards to 61.5 and take the Under, which would result in a +550 SGP. Playing the Under on 69.5 rushing yards turns it into a +465 SGP, and Under 88.5 rushing yards makes this a +375 bet.
Those are still pretty solid prices if you trust the Lions to take care of business on Sunday.
