After a scintillating first two weeks in the NFL, Week 3 sees the Tennessee Titans (1-1) taking on the Cleveland Browns (1-1) at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland, Ohio.
Many of the pre-game storylines concern the injury to Browns star running back Nick Chubb, but this contest also features value plays across the board for prospective bettors.
Let’s dive in and examine some odds, predictions, best bets and prop bets for this matchup.
Titans vs Browns Odds
NFL odds used for this Tennessee vs Cleveland preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Wednesday, September 20 and 7:00pm.
- Moneyline: Browns (-175) • Titans (+145)
- Spread: Browns -3.5 (-110) • Titans +3.5 (-110)
- Total Points: Over 39.5 (-108) • Under 39.5 (-112)
- Implied Score: Browns 21.5, Titans 18.0
Titans vs Browns Predictions
Score Pick: Titans 20, Browns 18
The total for this game opened at 39.5, meaning professional oddsmakers and sportsbooks are anticipating a low-scoring tilt.
The potential season-ending injury to Chubb is a massive loss for a Browns offense that enters this game ranked first in football in rushing yards before contact per attempt and third in rush attempts per broken tackles, per Pro Football Reference. That should play right into the hands of the Titans defense as Cleveland likely shifts towards a more pass-heavy offense.
This game has all the makings of a Mike Vrabel speciality – scrappy, run-heavy and low-scoring.
Look for the Titans to eke out a close one on the road.
Titans vs Browns Best Bets & Props
Under 39.5 (-112)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
My first bet will focus on the game total of 39.5 points.
Although it’s still early in the 2023 NFL campaign, both the Titans and Browns have struggled to put points on the board, which bodes well for the Under in this one.
From a statistical perspective, Tennessee ranks 22nd in the NFL in passing yards per game (190.5), while the Browns rank 27th (177.0). In addition, both teams have struggled to convert on third down, with the Titans posting an abysmal 32% third-down conversion percentage (ranked 26th) and the Browns countering with 30% (ranked 30th).
When you factor in both teams’ lack of offensive fortitude, combined with the absence of Chubb, there’s no real evidence to suggest this game exceeds 39.5 total points. For those reasons, I’m taking the Under as my NFL bet of the day.
Titans +3.5 (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
My second bet will target the Titans against the spread.
With Vrabel at the helm, Tennessee has posted an impressive 22-15-1 record against the spread as a road underdog and is already 2-0 ATS thus far in 2023. This Titans squad seemingly always finds a way to keep games close, especially away from home.
On the field, Tennessee has continued its stellar play on defense – ranking second in yards per carry, fifth in rushing yards per game, and tied for seventh in sacks – which should make life challenging for Deshaun Watson and the Browns offense, especially in the absence of Chubb.
The Titans will keep it close on the road, combined with an intriguing 3.5-point buffer.
Ryan Tannehill Under 212.5 Passing Yards (-125)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
To round out our list of bets, we’ll target Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s passing prop, which is listed at 212.5.
Although Tannehill has shown a ton of resilience and grit under center thus far this season, he enters a less-than-favorable matchup through the air against an athletic and fierce Browns defense fresh off a game that saw him make just 24 pass attempts.
From an advanced metrics perspective, Tannehill is ranked 24th in pass attempts (58), 29th in drop% (8.8%), and 26th in intended air yards per pass attempt (444), per Pro Football Reference.
In addition, the Browns defense has looked fantastic thus far this season, ranking third in both opponent yards per pass attempt (4.3) and opponent average time of possession (24:21), per Team Rankings.
Look for Tannehill to struggle on Sunday against one of football’s most impressive defenses.
Titans vs Browns Same-Game Parlay
Titans vs Browns SGP (+146)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
- Browns Under 20.5 Team Total Points (-105)
- Titan +3.5 (-110)
My same game parlay focuses on the Browns’ total team points combined with the Titans against the spread. Let’s start with Cleveland’s team total of 20.5 points.
Week 2 saw Watson struggle to find any rhythm and consistency in Cleveland’s offense, going 22–40 (55%) with six sacks en route to a 26-22 loss to archrivals the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Watson has been fairly disappointing throwing the football thus far in 2023, posting a 63.7% expected completion percentage and 38.0 longest completed air yards, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
In a game that will likely see the former Clemson QB frequently air it out, this may be trouble for Cleveland going up against a Titans team that loves to run the ball, slow the game down and eat a ton of clock. Look for the Browns to fail to exceed 20.5 total team points.
To complete our same game parlay, I’m targeting the Titans against the spread.
After playing (and losing) on Monday night in an emotional divisional game, the Browns limp into this game on short rest.
Waiting in the wings for them is Titans running back Derrick Henry, who ranks second among running backs this season in rushing attempts (42) and 11th in rushing percentage over expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
Kevin Stefanski’s defense could well be in for a long and gruesome afternoon against Henry and Co. Look for the Titans to shorten the game, play turnover-free football and keep it close all afternoon long.
Combine the two plays at a captivating (+146) payout.
