The Packers and Broncos will be well rested for Week 7. Green Bay was on a bye in Week 6, and Denver had a mini-bye of sorts, playing on Thursday last week.
The Packers should welcome Aaron Jones back, while the Broncos will attempt to build on a rare competent defensive showing in Week 6.
Let’s look at the critical stats and betting information that will inform the best bets for this game.
Packers vs Broncos Odds
NFL odds used for this Green Bay vs Denver preview were found at Caesars Sportsbook and are current as of October 16 at 8:30 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Packers (-120) • Broncos (+100)
- Spread: Packers -1 (-110) • Broncos +1 (-110)
- Total Points: Over 44.5 (-110) • Under 44.5 (-110)
- Implied Score: Packers 22.75, Broncos 21.75
Packers vs Broncos Predictions
Score Pick: Packers 24, Broncos 21
The Packers have averaged 22.6 points per game this year, with a median of 20. They can exceed their average and median this week with a fully stocked cupboard of offensive weapons – assuming Jones returns – in a cushy matchup.
According to Pro Football Reference, the Broncos have allowed the most yards per play (6.7), conceded the most points per game (33.3), and yielded a median of 29.5 points this season. They also struggle to pressure the quarterback, owning the sixth-lowest pressure rate (16.7%) this season.
The low pressure rate is ideal for Jordan Love. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Love is 32nd among 34 quarterbacks pressured on at least 30 of their dropbacks in 2023 in PFF’s passing grade. Yet he’s a more respectable 20th in PFF’s passing grade when kept clean.
The Broncos can also put points on the board at an OK clip, ranking tied for 17th in points per game (21.5) and producing a median of 20.5. Green Bay’s defense has allowed the 11th-most points per game (22.6) and a median of 20.
Russell Wilson could be under duress this week since the Packers have the sixth-highest pressure rate (25.7%). Fortunately, he’s PFF’s fifth-ranked passer under pressure. So, the Broncos should hang some points in a close game, but their defense will fail them again.
Packers vs Broncos Best Bets & Props
Packers -1 (-110)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
The Packers have covered the spread in three of five games this season. Conversely, the Broncos have been a gimmie for losing against the spread (ATS), going 0-5-1 this year.
It’s a mixed bag for Matt LaFleur after a bye as Green Bay’s head coach, splitting four contests ATS. Still, the combination of Green Bay’s and Denver’s ATS data this year is encouraging for the Packers covering the one-point spread this week as the superior team, making this the NFL bet of the day.
Packers Over 22.5 (-120)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units
Green Bay’s offense was without Christian Watson until Week 4, when he was eased into action. He was fully unleashed in Week 5.
Sadly, Jones wasn’t available in Week 5. Thus, Green Bay’s top two offensive weapons haven’t played together much this year, only doing so with snap limitations in Week 4.
The Packers can exceed their 2023 scoring average (22.6) and median (20) with their top weapons in the mix and a mouthwatering matchup against Denver’s pathetic defense this week.
Over 44.5 (-110)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units
My projected score would put this over the game’s total of 44.5 points. That’s an excellent starting point, and thankfully, the betting trends for both teams support the game going over the total.
Green Bay’s game total has gone over three times in five games this season. Denver’s game total has gone over four times in six contests in 2023.
Packers vs Broncos Same-Game Parlay
Packers vs Broncos SGP (+575)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.25 units
- Packers -1 (-110)
- Over 44.5 (-110)
- Broncos Under 21.5 (-105)
This three-leg parlay will attempt to thread the needle since Denver’s Under for 21.5 points conflicts with the game exceeding 44.5 points.
Still, the projected score of a 24-21 victory would complete two legs of a successful three-leg parlay at a tantalizing price of +575.
Since Denver’s defense is measurably the worst in the NFL, the Packers can do the heavy lifting for the game going over.
