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Commanders vs Broncos Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Sep 15, 2023

The Broncos and Commanders both saw quite a bit of turnover during the offseason, but only Washington’s internal machinations seem to have had the desired effect in Week 1.

The Broncos head into Week 2 looking for their first home win after losing to the Raiders 17-16, while the Commanders embark on their first road trip of the season after taking down the lowly Cardinals 20-16 at home.

Before we get too worked up about each team’s start, it’s important to put Week 1 in context as both games were within four points or less. Are these teams contenders or pretenders?

That’s not a question we’ll be able to answer this week, but there’s still plenty of betting value to be had in this game. Let’s dig in to identify some best bets, player props, and a same-game parlay for this Week 2 matchup between Denver and Washington.

Commanders vs Broncos Odds

NFL odds used for this Denver vs Washington preview were found at Caesars Sportsbook and are current as of Wednesday, Sept. 13 at 10 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Broncos (-190) • Commanders (+158)
  • Spread: Broncos -3.5 (-110) • Commanders +3.5 (-110)
  • Total Points: Over 39 (-110) • Under 39 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Broncos 21.25, Commanders 17.75

Commanders vs Broncos Predictions

Score Pick: Commanders 20, Broncos 17

While the Broncos have the clear coaching advantage with Sean Payton over Ron Rivera, I’m not sure they have much else going for them right now, especially considering the coaching advantage (and home field advantage) didn’t work for them last week.

Denver will again be without top wideout Jerry Jeudy this week and will need to rely on Courtland Sutton, Adam Trautman, and Marvin Mims Jr. to catch Russell Wilson’s passes. Wilson threw for two touchdowns last week, but he didn’t do much to quiet the calls of “washed!” in throwing for just 177 yards against a lackluster Raiders defense.

Javonte Williams is still working his way into playing shape after missing last year, so even the Broncos’ running game is a bit limited in terms of big-play potential right now.

The Commanders are relying upon Sam Howell to run the show at quarterback, but unlike Wilson, the second-year signal caller has some weapons at his disposal with Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel, and (for now) a healthy Logan Thomas.

And even though they mostly relied on Brian Robinson Jr. in last week’s win over the Cardinals, the Commanders have another viable running back in Antonio Gibson.

Commanders vs Broncos Best Bets & Props

Commanders +3.5 (-110)

Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

My NFL bet of the day is the Commanders +3.5. As you can see above, I think the Commanders are going to steal a road win this weekend. But if you don’t want to go as far as betting the Commanders moneyline (where there’s a lot of value at +158), this bet is for you.

Both teams boast above-average defensive units and play at a relatively slow pace: the Commanders ran the 14th-most plays in the league last week while the Broncos ran the 24th most with just 58.

We should see a slow, run-first game plan for both teams, which should keep things close, meaning this bet screams value, even if you don’t think the Commanders will win like I do. As we get closer to gametime, I’d expect this to move to +3.0, so there’s likely some value in hopping in while it’s at +3.5.

Under 39 (-110)

Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

I don’t feel quite as strongly about this one, but the aforementioned defenses and pace at which both teams played last week should lead to a relatively low score.

Wilson lacks the big-play weapons around him to put up points in a hurry, and Payton has both Williams and Samaje Perine at his disposal to take some of the pressure off of his passing attack. The Commanders have always been a run-first team (they ranked ninth last year in terms of running play percentage) and they continued that trend last week.

As long as my theory above holds true, we should see a slow-paced game where the clock doesn’t stop much. If that happens for all the reasons I just outlined, we’ll make it to the Under-39 promised land.

Commanders (+158)

Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

Ready to go out on a bit of a limb here? Considering there’s usually a three-point edge given to home teams, it stands to reason that these teams are essentially even in Vegas’ eyes.

And if you factor in that the Broncos already lost at home to what most would consider an average to below-average team, this becomes much more of a toss-up than the spread would initially indicate.

The juice at +158 doesn’t exactly provide extreme value like a major upset would, but there’s enough meat on the bone to make it worth it in such an even matchup.

Commanders Win by 1-6 (+340)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

I’m basically just doubling down on the Commanders moneyline bet here, but this is also the likely margin of victory if Washington is able to win on the road this week. There’s also the chance of a blowout (any given Sunday and all that), but these teams both played close games last week, and their defensive prowess combined with their run-first offensive attacks will limit either team from pulling away too much.

With a +340 line here, there’s a ton of value for the same game that we just reasoned out is more or less a toss-up.

Commanders vs Broncos Same Game Parlay

Commanders vs Broncos SGP (+600)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

  • Under 39.5 (-105)
  • Commanders Over 17.5 (-105)

I really like this Same Game Parlay because it only requires two legs to septuple our money if we win. And they’re both very realistic legs for all the reasons we went over above.

The Under is very much in play due to pace, offensive style, and defensive quality, while the Commanders have enough offensive talent to put up more than 17 points (which is what they did last week with 20).

Author

Nick Roberts

Nick is an analyst at The Game Day who writes about the NFL and NBA from a betting perspective. He previously contributed to RotoWorld, Rotowire, and The New York Times. Nick resides in New Jersey.

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