The Denver Broncos (4-11) make the short trip to face the Kansas City Chiefs (12-3) in a Week 17 AFC West clash on Sunday afternoon. The game marks the first game for Denver under interim head coach Jerry Rosburg, who replaced the fired Nathaniel Hackett on Monday.
The loss that led to a premature ending to Hackett’s one and only season in Denver was a 51-14 thrashing at the hands of the Rams on Christmas Day. Meanwhile, the Chiefs kept themselves in contention for the AFC’s top seed with a 24-10 victory over the visiting Seahawks on Saturday, KC’s third straight win.
Without further ado, let’s delve into our Denver vs Kansas City best bets, predictions and betting tips.
Broncos vs Chiefs Odds
The Chiefs’ are 13-point home favorites on Caesars Sportsbook as of Tuesday afternoon, Dec. 27. This is wholly unsurprising, considering the disparity in talent and performance between the two squads and the fact Denver will be playing under an interim head coach.
The projected total of 45 points is also reasonable, assuming KC puts together one of its higher-percentile offensive efforts, and the Broncos struggle to put up even half of their opponent’s tally.
Broncos vs Chiefs Implied Totals
Chiefs 29, Broncos 16
Oddsmakers see a standard offensive performance for the Chiefs against a lackluster, mistake-prone Broncos offense. Kansas City still has plenty of incentive to win as they try to salvage their chances of finishing as the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
Broncos vs Chiefs Pick of the Day
Read more on this Broncos vs Chiefs bet below.
Broncos vs Chiefs Prediction
Chiefs 30, Broncos 14
The Chiefs have actually been a more prolific offensive team on the road than at home this season, averaging 24.9 points per contest at Arrowhead Stadium and 33 points per road game.
However, KC is also limiting opponents to 18.7 per home game and is facing a Broncos team that seems to be in complete disarray after the lopsided loss it suffered against the Rams.
As noted, Denver will be operating under an interim coach, and although the first game under such conditions can sometimes lead to a spike in performance for many teams, that’s usually more so the case when the move happens earlier in the season.
With the change at the top coming with just two games left in a vastly underwhelming, disappointing campaign, it’s difficult to envision much of a resurgence for the Broncos against a focused opponent on its home field.
Russell Wilson‘s play is also unquestionably more a liability than asset at this point, with the prized offseason acquisition most recently throwing three interceptions and taking four sacks against Los Angeles.
Wilson was effective versus the Chiefs in Week 14 with 247 yards and three touchdowns before being knocked out of the game with a concussion, so a couple of successful drives wouldn’t be surprising.
However, his chances of keeping pace with Patrick Mahomes and his ultra-talented array of weapons would appear to be non-existent.
That would seem to be especially true when considering Denver is surrendering 132.6 rushing yards per road contest, which should give Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon plenty of opportunity to keep the chains moving when Mahomes isn’t targeting the Broncos through the air.
This shapes up as another typical Chiefs home win where KC progressively pulls away from its inferior opponent, leading to a double-digit victory.
Broncos vs Chiefs Bet Tips
Here are a few Broncos vs Chiefs betting trends to consider before making your bets:
- The Broncos are 6-9 against the spread, including 2-5 as a road team and 2-2 in division games.
- The Chiefs are 5-9-1 ATS, including 2-4-1 as a home team and 0-4 in division games.
- The Over is 4-11 in the Broncos’ games, including 2-5 in their road games. Meanwhile, the Over is 7-8 in the Chiefs’ games, including 1-6 in their home contests.
- Kansas City is 33-24-1 ATS in division games since Andy Reid became head coach in 2013.
Broncos vs Chiefs Best Bets
Chiefs -7 1H (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
As discussed, the Chiefs are gunning to stay in play for the top seed in the conference while also keeping its top players healthy ahead of the postseason, so an aggressive game plan against an inferior opponent right from the jump would be expected.
With KC averaging an NFL-high 19 points per first half over the last three games and Denver surrendering an NFL-high 21.3 points per first half in that same span, this is a wager I have confidence in.
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Over 7.5 1Q Points (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Following the logic of the Chiefs coming out firing, and factoring in the Broncos’ recent defensive vulnerabilities, I like the prospects of the first quarter having more than a touchdown’s worth of points being scored, even if weather is somewhat of a factor.
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Broncos vs Chiefs Props
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