We are approaching the season’s halfway point, and Sunday will feature an interesting AFC West contest when the 6-1 Kansas City Chiefs play the 2-5 Denver Broncos at 4:25 p.m. ET.
Kansas City tops the AFC West and has reeled off six consecutive victories since their season-opening defeat to Detroit. Meanwhile, Denver snapped a two-game losing streak with a Week 7 home victory over Green Bay.
Here are my best bets, including one same-game parlay for Sunday’s Chiefs vs Broncos AFC West clash on Oct. 29.
Chiefs vs Broncos Odds
NFL odds used for this Kansas City vs Denver preview were found at FanDuel Sportsbook and are current as of Tuesday, Oct. 24 at 1 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Chiefs (-390) • Broncos (+310)
- Spread: Chiefs -7.5 (-115) • Broncos +7.5 (-7.5)
- Total Points: Over 46.5 (-110) • Under 46.5 (-110)
- Implied Score: Chiefs 27, Broncos 19.5
Chiefs vs Broncos Predictions
Score Pick: Chiefs 24, Broncos 14
Sunday’s AFC West matchup probably won’t end anywhere near the FanDuel total, and that’s okay. Kansas City boasts the league’s second-best scoring offense, and Denver allows the most total yards and rushing yards while surrendering a league-worst 31 points per game.
Denver scores 21.1 points per game, and the rushing offense fares better than their passing offense. The Broncos have scored lower than their implied team total three times and have scored 21 points or more in just three of their seven contests.
The Kansas City defense allows the seventh-fewest yards with the second-fewest points allowed per game.
Chiefs vs Broncos Best Bets & Props
Under 46.5 (-110)
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Next to a Russell Wilson passing prop (Under) that won’t be available until at least Thursday, the Under 46.5 will be my NFL Bet of the Day for Sunday. The Broncos’ offense is very inconsistent, and the Chiefs’ defense has performed exceptionally well.
I’m not a fan of Denver’s defense, but the weather forecast calls for descending temps that will be in the low 40s by halftime, with strong, gusty winds that should make kicking and passing the football difficult.
Finally, this season, the Chiefs’ Over/Under record is 2-5 to the Under. Meanwhile, the Broncos’ Over/Under record is 4-3 to the Over. However, the weather will be the big winner, and this game ends Under the total.
Chiefs: Under 27.5 (-115)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
The two sides met in Week 6, and the Chiefs scored just 19 points at Arrowhead. The wind was kicking up that day, but it will be much colder on Sunday, and it is expected to be windier than what the teams dealt with previously as well.
The Broncos have yielded 27.5 points or more in four of their seven contests, but the wind should help Denver keep the high-scoring Kansas City offense to a minimum.
Broncos: Under 18.5 (-110)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
This wager is a much better number than FanDuel will offer because their totals differ from Caesars, and we want to play the Under 18.5 points badly.
Wilson and the offense have been inconsistent, and he hasn’t been able to replicate the same success in Denver as he enjoyed in Seattle. The Chiefs’ defense is legit, and Wilson and co. will have difficulties doing anything at all against Kansas City.
The Broncos scored 18.5 points or more in five of their seven contests this season, but they scored nine at Kansas City. They will likely score between nine and 17 points on Sunday.
Chiefs vs Broncos Same Game Parlay
Chiefs vs Broncos SGP (+236)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.10 Units
- Broncos: Under 18.5 (-110)
- Under 46 (-110)
- Chiefs: Under 27.5 (-125)
The same game parlay correlates perfectly with our best bets for this contest.
The weather is expected to be cold and windy, with snow showers expected throughout the second half. It will be tough for both teams to score the football, and I don’t see either offense exceeding their team totals or the game total.
Finally, these division games are often low-scoring affairs, but this contest will likely feature weather more fit for a polar bear than an NFL contest in October.
