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Bills vs Commanders Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Sep 20, 2023

The Buffalo Bills bounced back after a disappointing Week 1 loss to the Jets, dismantling the Las Vegas Raiders at home last Sunday. Next, they will face the undefeated Washington Commanders.

Washington allowed 33 points but still beat Denver in Week 2, and it should have enough to test Buffalo.

Here are our predictions and best bets for Buffalo vs. Washington.

Bills vs Commanders Odds

NFL odds used for this Buffalo vs Washington preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of September 19 and 4:00 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Bills (-285) • Commanders (+230)
  • Spread: Bills -6.5 (-112) • Commanders +6.5 (-108)
  • Total Points: Over 44.5 (-110) • Under 44.5 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Bills 25.5, Commanders 19

Bills vs Commanders Predictions

Score Pick: Bills 23, Commanders 20

The overwhelming narrative here is that Josh Allen and the Bills are back following their 38-10 win over the Raiders, but they need to show more.

While the Jets represented a tall task for Buffalo, the Raiders once again own one of the worst defenses in football, sitting 29th in NFL defense power rankings.

The Bills’ numbers look decent enough on the surface, but when you factor in the strength of schedule to this point (FTN has theirs as the third-easiest) and that they’ve been much better on the ground than through the air, they can win this game by pounding the rock.

Washington’s defense has been sound through two weeks, but the team’s weakness is clearly the run, ranking 17th in DVOA on the ground and ninth in the air.

With James Cook looking like a real threat through two weeks and Latavius Murray running well behind him, this should be a low-scoring game the Bills will sneak off with.

Bills vs Commanders Best Bets & Props

Commanders +6.5 (-108)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit(s)

The bottom line here is that Washington’s defense has been one of the best around to this point, ranking 10th in DVOA and 11th in EPA per play.

It enters this game with some question marks against the run, but this unit limited Russell Wilson to a 65.1 xQBR last week and held him to just a 36% success rate on passing plays on late downs.

This Commanders defense locked down in a huge way throughout the game, so while many would say they were lucky to survive on a stopped two-point conversion, that was representative of the performance they put forth.

Furthermore, they were unlucky to allow a Hail Mary touchdown to bring the game to within two as time expired.

Washington performed well on offense against a stout Denver defense and managed to win against an Arizona unit that has played well through two weeks. The Commanders are flying under the radar heading into Week 2, and they’re our NFL bet of the day.

Under 44.5 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit(s)

These defenses aren’t getting enough love. Both rank inside the top 11 of the league in EPA per play, and the Commanders have been particularly impressive against the pass, ranking fourth in dropback success rate.

So, this will be a grind-fest. Buffalo ranks third-slowest in pace through two weeks, and against a team that has struggled against the run, that pace should continue to be painfully slow.

To help matters, Washington is 10th-slowest in pace and has one of the lowest no-huddle rates in football at 2.3%. I love taking the points, but I love taking the Under just as much.

1Q Over 8.5 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit(s)

I know I just got done talking about how I love the Commanders defense and the Under, and I maintain that the above is true.

With that said, Washington has allowed 8.5 first-quarter points on average, coughing up 14 last week. On offense, teams have averaged five points in the first quarter.

Coming off of two great offensive performances, it’s natural to expect both teams to look good early, and I’m betting that at least one of the two scripted drives from Eric Bieniemy and Ken Dorsey to kick us off lead to points given the strength of both coordinators.

Bills vs Commanders Same Game Parlay

Bills vs Commanders SGP (+450)

DraftKingsSportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units

  • Commanders +6.5 (-105)
  • Bills 1H -2.5 (-150)
  • Commanders Over 1.5 TDs (-200)

Ah, yes, the old bait and switch. The thing is, you can like the Commanders to cover here while also acknowledging their flaws. Washington went into the half down 21-14 last week and trailed Arizona 13-10 at halftime prior to that.

It’s clear that the Commanders have taken some time to adjust defensively, so I’m willing to take the risk here that they’ll figure out a way to slow the Bills as they’ve done with their first two opponents after looking to be second-best in the opening half.

I’m also a big fan of including the Commanders to score a couple of touchdowns given Washington is a respectable 16th in EPA per play and 11th in total DVOA on offense. Sam Howell has been moving the ball well enough to lead Washington to paydirt twice.

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