Colts vs Bills Predictions & Best Bets

The Buffalo Bills will play host to the Indianapolis Colts to begin their preseason, but they’ll be doing so without two key starters. Can a rookie quarterback take advantage for the visitors?

Let’s break it all down in our Colts vs. Bills preview and prediction.

Colts vs Bills Odds

NFL odds used for this Indianapolis vs Buffalo preview were found at FanDuel Sportsbook and are current as of August 10th and 5:00 p.m. ET.

Moneyline: Colts (-180) • Bills (+155)
Spread: Colts -4.5 (-105) • Bills +4.5 (-115)
Total Points: Over 38.5 (-105) • Under 38.5 (-115)
Implied Score: Colts 21, Bills 17

Colts vs Bills Predictions

Score Pick: Bills 20, Colts 13

The Buffalo Bills are heading into this game without star quarterback Josh Allen and his top target, Stefon Diggs. While that’s a big question mark for the home team, we’ve yet to see Anthony Richardson throw a pass at the NFL level.

The rookie will be the one to lead Indianapolis out of the locker room, and with that I think there is a lot that can (and will) go wrong for the Colts.

Buffalo is planning to play the majority of its starters on defense according to head coach Sean McDermott, and while this secondary struggled at times in 2022 it still ranked eighth in DVOA and should stifle an inexperienced signal-caller.

Colts vs Bills Best Bets & Props

Bills +4.5 (-115)

FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

Buffalo will be heavily reliant upon its rookies here, and considering the Bills’ draft class widely recognized as a good one, I feel confident in making the home team my NFL bet of the day.

Kyle Allen looked competent in 13 games with Carolina just a few years ago and will play with a far better line than the one he had there. On top of that, he’s stronger at the skill positions with rookie Dalton Kincaid joining a good crop of receivers.

I think Buffalo is well-positioned to win and I’ll take the points.

Bills Team Total Over 16.5 (-130)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

Richardson was a standout at Florida due to his tremendous dual-threat ability, but he was a bit careless with the ball at times. His three fumbles and nine interceptions in 12 games last year have me deeply concerned for the Colts.

I think there will be at least one giveaway from the visiting team here, and with that I think the Bills team total is where you want to look. Buffalo should be able to convert rather efficiently with a strong backup quarterback and veteran Matt Barkley as the third-stringer here.

Bills by 1-13 Pts (+220)

FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

Excluding the Hall of Fame Game, there wasn’t a game decided by 14 points in the first week of the preseason last season and in total there were just three in the first two weeks.

That’s not a coincidence as in the first week of the preseason starters are generally not playing and with second and third teams taking the majority of the reps the competition is a lot more level.

The further you get, the more it varies how much starters will play on their respective teams.

With that, I think it’s reasonable to expect a close game. That leads me to this bet, which I see tremendous value in.

If you like the Bills to win, the chances of a blowout would seem rather slim. Buffalo will be leaning on plenty of inexperienced players and despite having an edge in the quarterback matchup don’t have too many discernable legs up.