Why Chiefs Will Win Super Bowl 55
Super Bowl LV Final Score PredictionChiefs 27, Buccaneers 24
Chiefs Super Bowl LV Moneyline Bet
BEST BET: Chiefs (-180)I like the Chiefs win their second straight Super Bowl, in a game that plays out similar to the Week 12 matchup between these two teams. KC got out to a 17-0 lead in that contest and were up 27-10 at the end of the third quarter, before Brady and Co. scored two fourth-quarter touchdowns. My Super Bowl LV KC Bet on the moneyline reflects that. Simply looking at the final score, the game looked a lot closer than it actually was. The Chiefs completely dominated until they started playing prevent defense and allowed the Bucs to seemingly get back in the game. But, truth is, the outcome was never in doubt. That being said, there are two ways to think about why Chiefs moneyline is my best bet. While I’m confident enough to risk almost 2-to-1 odds, I’m not confident enough to take them minus the 3-point spread. My reasoning is simple. I expect this game to end with a 3-point scoring difference, and potentially playing a best bet tfor a tie is no fun.
Chiefs Super Bowl LV Bet On Over/Under
KC-TB Under 56 (-105)And that leads right into my first Chiefs-Buccaneers pick to consider — the Under 56. If I expect a 27-24 final score, that’s 51 points, but we could fall way short of this total. With the last two Super Bowl-winning QBs facing off in this one, it’s important to remember how each of those contests played out. Mahomes and the Chiefs won 31-20 last year, and Brady and New England Patriots won 13-3 the year prior, in the lowest-scoring Super Bowl of all time. Even though we have the GOAT taking on the potential future GOAT, it’s the defensive side of the ball that often shines the brightest on Super Bowl Sunday. I’m taking the Under in a one-score win by the Chiefs.
Chiefs Super Bowl LV Bet ATS (Against the Spread)
CONSIDER: Chiefs -2.5 (buy .5 pts)Last but certainly not least, a play that will get you slightly better odds (than Chiefs moneyline) and avoids a potential push (if you like Bucs +3). I am all for buying half a point when the spread sits on a key number like 3. And if you’ve been reading my content throughout the NFL season, you’ll know I do this a lot when I’m actually placing bets on games. I’d rather pay a small premium to potentially avoid rooting for a bet, only to end up in a tie. That’s all I’m considering here. If you like the Chiefs, like myself, then buying it down to 2.5 points puts you in a position to win a 3-point game while risking slightly less on your initial bet. Same goes for buying it up to Bucs +3.5. You’ll have to risk a few more dollars up front, with the chance to win a wager if Tampa ends up losing by a field goal. However you decide to play it, we should have a great game on our hands with two of the best to ever play the quarterback position on display throughout Super Bowl 55.
Chiefs Super Bowl LV Prop Bets
Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing TDs (-135)I’ve taken this Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl prop bet in both of the Chiefs’ playoff games this postseason. And I won’t hesitate to go back to the well once more. … But it’s the Week 12 meeting between the Chiefs and the Buccaneers that really makes me like this prop. Mahomes had another three passing TDs in that one, while going 37-of-49 for 462 yards. He totaled six games during the regular-season games (in 15 starts) where this prop bet would have hit, and I expect the Chiefs to once again lean on their passing game to get into the end zone — at least three times via the pass.
Travis Kelce Anytime TD Scorer (-164)Here’s another prop that I’ve bet during both Chiefs playoff games — and cashed twice. Travis Kelce had not one, but two touchdown catches in the AFC title game, while racking up a Chiefs playoff record of 13 receptions. Those TD grabs gave the All Pro tight end a total of 14 on the season (including playoffs) and extended his touchdown streak to six games. It also gave Kelce at least one receiving TD in eight of his last 10 contests.
Away Team First Touchdown Scorer: Travis Kelce (+270)This leads directly into a plus-odds prop for Kelce. Having scored seven TDs in his last six games, Zeus was his team’s first touchdown scorer twice during that span. He was the Chiefs’ second touchdown scorer another three times and scored their last two in the AFC Championship against the Bills.
Point Spread 2nd Quarter: Chiefs -0.5 (-110)The second quarter is when the Chiefs typically kick things into gear, especially in the playoffs. In the AFC Championship, they outscored the Bills, 21 to 3, after falling behind 9-0 in the first quarter. In the Divisional Round, it was the same story. The Chiefs outscored the Browns, 13 to 0, in that second quarter. Going back to the regular season, the Chiefs outscored their opponents in the second quarter three times, tied twice and surprisingly put up fewer points in three games over the last eight that Mahomes played in. Of note, the Chiefs outscored their opponents by a combined 27 to 3 in the three games they didn’t win the second quarter outright.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over 30.5 Rushing Yards (-115)I’ve given you lots of insight on Mahomes and the Chiefs’ passing game, so let’s close out with a rushing prop. And since Unders are no fun, let’s go with the over on 30.5 rush yards for Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Edwards-Helaire was the team’s clear lead back before he injured his hip and ankle in Week 15. In his 13 regular-season games, CEH topped 30 yards 11 times, including Week 12 against the Bucs (11 carries for 37 yards). The only two times he didn’t eclipse this total was in Weeks 8 and 9 heading into the Chiefs’ bye.
Super Bowl MVP Best Bets
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs (-110)The man who won the Super Bowl MVP just last season is, of course, the favorite to win the award again. If the Chiefs take home their second straight Super Bowl, it will likely be due to the play of their star quarterback. Through 54 Super Bowls, a QB has won the award 30 times. A QB winning the Super Bowl MVP is so much the obvious choice that you can take the “Position of MVP" prop, select “QB," and get both Mahomes and Brady together at -300 odds, though you’re sacrificing a bit of payout there.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs (+1000)This one is interesting as it would be a first. No tight end has ever won the Super Bowl MVP. But Kelce isn’t your typical tight end.
Sleeper: Mecole Hardman, WR, Chiefs (+5000)All the way back in Super Bowl 31, Desmond Howard put on a show. The kick/punter returner for Green Bay not only had a 99-yard kick return TD but also racked up 244 all-purpose yards. It’s that kind of impact that Hardman would have to have in order to win the Super Bowl MVP.
Read our full NFL betting and fantasy football coverage of Super Bowl 55, which includes Super Bowl LV Bet Tips, Chiefs Player Prop Bets, Buccaneers Player Prop Bets, and Super Bowl 55 Exotic Props.
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