Week 9 NFL Recap: Read our Week 9 NFL Recap for the four biggest NFL betting and fantasy football lessons we learned from Week 9.
Week 9 NFL Recap
1. Kyler Murray is the 2020 version of 2019 Lamar Jackson
Forget ‘Orange is the New Black’ because Kyler Murray is the new Lamar Jackson — in fantasy football.
In the fantasy football community this offseason, one of the biggest questions was who would be the next Lamar? Jackson is a unique player in terms of what he brings to fantasy because of his rushing floor.
In 2019, the Ravens’ QB was the No. 1 signal-caller in carries (175), red-zone carries (27), rushing yards (1213), and second in rushing touchdowns (7).
However, in 2020, Jackson is being outplayed by another quarterback with immense rushing ability — none other than Murray.
Now, Jackson is still second in most of these categories, but you likely used a second- or third-round pick for him. Meanwhile, Murray was the far greater value, as he could have been had beyond the fifth round in most formats.
While Murray is second in carries (76) and third in red-zone carries (14), he is the No. 1 quarterback in rushing yards (518) and rushing scores (8).
Murray has now rushed for at least 500 yards in each of his first two seasons as a pro, so we shouldn’t expect him to slow down anytime soon.
Murray already has as more rushing TDs (8) in eight games than Jackson had in all of 2019 (7) and the Cardinals’ QB could double that number if he keeps up his pace.
Murray has rushed for at least 67 yards in 6-of-8 games while scoring a touchdown on the ground in 7-of-8. You almost have to do a double-take but Kyler is tied for third in the NFL in rushing scores behind stud RBs Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara. He’s tied with Derrick Henry.
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2. Breshad Perriman hits big on Monday night
If you laid money on Jets WR Breshad Perriman’s two-touchdown prop on Monday night, you cashed … BIG!
At PointsBet, a $100 wager paid $8,500 (+8500). Sure, it was a longshot to hit, but not impossible, especially against the 2020 Patriots.
Normally one of the league’s elite units, New England’s secondary is surrendering the 12th most receiving touchdowns in the league through eight games (10).
And Perriman is no slouch. A former first-round pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, his skillset screams big play, which is why his 5/101/2 line in Monday night’s loss to New England was no surprise.
Perriman has scored at least two touchdowns two times in the last eight games he was healthy, dating back to 2019. He’s also gone for over 100 receiving yards in four of those eight matchups.
As long as Perriman is on the field, don’t forget about him in your fantasy lineups or in the player-props game. He’s the deep-threat the Jets have been missing all season long.
3. Miami’s defense cashes again in Week 9
For the second consecutive week, the Dolphins’ defense struck gold — if you took their anytime touchdown scorer prop.
Back in Week 8 against the Rams, the Miami D/ST found the end zone twice. Once on a kick return touchdown and another on a defensive score.
In Sunday’s win over the Cardinals, they hit again. This time, on a Kyler Murray sack-fumble, it was Shaq Lawson who picked the ball up and returned it for the third Dolphins D/ST score in two weeks.
At PointsBet, that Dolphins D/ST score paid out $2,800 on a $100 bet (+2800).
While the Dolphins have won four straight games and 5-of-6, their recent run has everything to do with how well their defense is playing under second-year head coach Brian Flores.
If the Dolphins continue their winning ways, it will very much be on the backs of that menacing and opportunistic defense. This makes that unit an intriguing anytime touchdown scorer prop bet moving forward.
In the past six games, the Dolphins D has logged 17 of its 20 sacks and 12 of its 14 takeaways on the year. Any time a defense can disrupt the opposing offense that much, there are ample opportunities to take one to the house.
4. J.D. McKissic quietly producing
J.D. McKissic was “free" in your fantasy football drafts this offseason. In fact, he still is! The converted wideout is rostered in less than 34% of leagues at ESPN and Yahoo.
While McKissic isn’t the sexiest name in fantasy, it is one to remember. Sure, he won’t likely win you a week in PPR scoring formats, but he won’t lose you one either, in most cases.
In three of his past four games, McKissic has logged at least 10.9 PPR points, including a pair of RB1 performances. Consequentially, both RB1 outings came against the Giants during that timespan.
Currently, McKissic is the PPR RB19 in four games since Week 5.
From a player prop point of view, McKissic should be on your radar as well.
McKissic has managed at least five receptions in four of his past five games. He’s also had at least 36 receiving yards in five of his past six.
I wouldn’t worry about McKissic’s opportunity-share either. He’s drawn at least six targets in four of his past five games. He is also second on the Washington Football Team in most receiving categories, including targets (47), receptions (34), and yards (248).
McKissic is the pseudo WR2 on the Football Team’s offense and could be even busier with Alex Smith under center for the rest of the way.
Normally, an under-the-radar player like McKissic doesn’t garner large reception and yards over/under totals at the sportsbooks, which you can use in your favor if you stay on top of the trends.
However, I can’t say I didn’t see this coming. I was telling people to add McKissic in fantasy back in October!
Prepare Week 10 betting tips and plan
- Read our latest NFL news, analysis, tips, predictions and betting tips.
- Learn how to bet on sports, including strategies, key terms, and betting process.
- Watch videos of our latest NFL analysis and predictions from experts like Elliot Harrison.
- Choose the sportsbook and betting offer that fits your budget and strategy.
