Week 15 NFL Bet Trends: Colts have owned Texans

Last Updated: Jan 9, 2021

Week 15 NFL Bet Trends: We are down to the final stretch of the 2020 season. Playoff races are heating up, and the football around the NFL is getting more intense by the second. To get you ready for the busy week ahead, here are the five Week 15 betting stats for football wagers you need to know before placing your favorite bets.

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Week 15 NFL Bet Trends

1. The Colts have won 29 of 38 lifetime meetings with the Texans.

While this Texans-Colts matchup is not an impactful one for both teams, it is a pivotal spot for Indianapolis. The Colts are holding the sixth seed in the AFC. Despite the fact that the Colts and Titans both own a 9-4 record, Tennessee holds the tiebreaker, making them AFC South champions and the current fourth seed if the season ended today.

The Colts not only remain in the hunt for the South, but a loss could knock them down a spot or even out of playoff considerations all together with the Dolphins and Ravens both donning 8-5 marks.

The good thing for the Colts this week: They get the Texans. The Texans have nothing to play for but draft positioning and spoiler, but I am not even sure they have a legit shot to do that. The Colts have owned the Texans since their inception with a 29-9 record against them including the playoffs.

The Texans have not beaten the Colts in Indy since Sept. 30, 2018. They are also 13-7 straight up in their past 20 meetings.

In this instance, the Texans are the visiting club. The road team is 10-2-2 against the spread in their last 14 meetings.

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2. The Falcons have won six of the last seven meetings with the Buccaneers.

This is another game that features division rivals -this time, out of the NFC South. It also features another two teams on opposite ends of the spectrum as well.

While the Buccaneers have a lot to play for — they are the sixth seed in the NFC playoff picture and two games back from the Saints for first place in the NFC South — the Falcons will be in postion to ruin Tampa Bay and Tom Brady’s postseason aspirations.

And although the Buccaneers are 8-5 and the Falcons are 4-9, I give the latter a fighting chance to win on Sunday.

The Falcons are 16-7 in their past 23 meetings with the Buccaneers, winners in six of their past seven matchups.

The Over is 4-0 in the past four meetings between the Falcons and Buccaneers and 4-0 in the past four matchups in between these two clubs played in Atlanta.

3. The Ravens are 7-0 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games in December.

The Ravens are currently sitting at an 8-5 mark and the eighth seed in the AFC playoff picture. They are on the outside looking in with an extremely winnable matchup upcoming against the Jaguars.

Not only are the Ravens 8-0 straight up in their past eight games played in December, but they are 7-1 ATS in that time period, covering in each of their past seven games.

The last time the Ravens failed to cover in a December game was back on December 1 2019 against the 49ers. While Baltimore won the game, they were giving 5.5 points and were victorious by three.

Week 15 NFL Bet Trends and Week 15 betting stats: Ravens have done well in December and could do so again controlling the run game
Week 15 NFL Bet Trends: The Baltimore Ravens have done well in December and could do so again controlling the run game with J.K. Dobbins. (USA TODAY Sports)

Now, the Ravens will have an opportunity to cover for the eighth straight game on Sunday facing a Jacksonville club that is 4-2 ATS in their past six games. While the Jags are a 1-12 team, they have played better in the past six games.

Although they failed to cover in last week’s blowout loss to the Titans, they covered against upper-echelon opponents that include the Vikings, Browns, Packers, and to a much lesser extent, the Texans in that aforementioned six-game period since Week 9.

In those four games in which the Jaguars covered, they lost by fewer than four points in all of them, two of which, by fewer than two.

For this week’s matchup with the Ravens, the Jaguars are getting 13 points with the current lines at PointsBet. That is a massive spread, but one Baltimore should cover. What could hinder the Ravens, however, is the fact that Gardner Minshew is getting the start for the Jags.

Minshew has the intangibles to light a spark in the offense. He is also mobile and could evade Baltimore’s pass rush at a much higher rate than Mike Glennon or Jake Luton.

While the Ravens are 3-0 ATS in December 2020, they failed to cover in five of their past seven games leading up to Week 12.

The Jaguars are 5-1 in their past six meetings with the Ravens, covering in five straight. The last time the Ravens and Jaguars faced-off was in September of 2017.

4. The Under is 6-0 in the Rams’ last six home games.

The Rams have played six games at home in 2020. All of them hit the Under. Three of those home games had totals in the 50s. 55 against the Seahawks, 52 against the Cowboys, and 50 against the Giants. Their other three games had totals in the 40s. 45 against the 49ers, 44 against the Bears, and 43.5 against the Patriots.

Fewer than 43 total points were scored in all six of the Rams’ home games this season. In five of those games, fewer than 39 points were accumulated.

This week, the Rams get the Jets at home in a game with a 44-point total. Unless the Rams hang 41 on the Jets, which is possible, I don’t see how this game hits the Over.

While the Jets employ one of, if not the worst offense in the NFL — the Jets are accumulating the fewest total yards per game (269.8), the fewest passing yards per game (166.1), and the fewest points per game (14.1) — the Rams have an elite top-end defense.

The Rams are allowing the fewest total yards per game (285.8), the fewest passing yards per game (191.7), the third-fewest rushing yards per game (94.2), and the third-fewest points per game (18.9).

While the Jets have played better of late — they have scored 27+ points in three of their past five games — outside of the Patriots, whose defense is still good but not great, they have scored on the Chargers and Raiders. In that five-game period, they scored three points against the Dolphins and Seahawks. I expect another three-point outing more so than another 27-point outing against the Rams.

The Under is 6-1 in the Jets’ past seven games facing teams with a winning record. The Rams are 9-4.

5. The Steelers are 16-2 on Monday Night Football games under Mike Tomlin.

The Steelers in the Mike Tomlin era are nearly flawless on Monday night football with a 16-2 mark in their past 18 games. Pittsburgh has won each of their past nine games on Monday night. The last time they lost was back on September 16, 2013. They were defeated by the Bengals 20-10 in Cincinnati that night.

Consequentially, the Steelers get the Bengals this Monday night in Cincy. However, despite the fact that the Steelers have lost two straight games, they have the proverbial get-right matchup in the Week 15 finale. The Bengals are also wounded. They have been without their franchise quarterback (Joe Burrow) and running back (Joe Mixon) for a good chunk of the second half combined.

The Steelers are giving the Bengals 13 points. Covering may be an issue as they failed to cover in four of their past six games, including three straight. But winning the game is a near lock.

The Best Bet in this game might be the Under on the low 40.5-point total as Pittsburgh’s Moneyline odds are ridiculous (-741).

The Under is 6-2-2 in the Steelers’ past 10 games, hitting or pushing in six straight.

The Under is 4-0-1 in the past five meetings between the Steelers and Bengals, pushing in their matchup from earlier this season.

After reading about Week 15 NFL Bet Trends for the top Week 15 betting stats:

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Marcus Mosher

Marcus Mosher is an NFL analyst at The Game Day, residing in Erie, PA. He covers the NFL from a betting and fantasy perspective, producing written and video content. Marcus currently hosts multiple football-related podcasts and is a managing editor at USA Today’s Sports Media Group covering the Las Vegas Raiders. He has previously worked at The Athletic and Bleacher Report.

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